Analysis and predictions posted 09.30.2024

[longhair75]

Analysis and Predictions 09.30.2024

All of this is just my opinion. It is in no way an attempt to sway anyone to vote for either candidate. Objectivity is hard to come by but I am doing my best to look at it from both sides.

The upcoming election is too close to call. The election is balanced on a knife edge and it could tip either way. There will be no landslide, and likely not even a clear winner on the close of the polls. There will be recounts and challenges to those recounts.

1. Mr. Trump has a very solid base of committed followers. He seems to be losing some ground among more mainstream Republicans.
2. Ms. Harris wide support in her party, but that may not be enough for the win.
3. This election, as always, will be won or lost in the center. Neither candidate can win without support from the independent voters in the middle.
4. Mr. Trump has difficulty appealing to the Black, Hispanic and Women voters.
5. Ms. Harris has staunch opposition from voters who will not vote for a female or a Black candidate. This means solid opposition to Ms. Harris as a Black Female.
6. If I were to place a bet, my money would go down on Ms. Harris pulling out a very narrow victory.
7. If Ms. Harris wins, I expect civil disorder on a much larger scale that that of 01.06.2021. The social upheaval will be massive and the wide rift between the two parties will grow ever wider.
8. If Mr. Trump wins, watch for attempts to get the 22nd amendment of the US Constitution to be repealed.
9. The House and Senate are also in play. Control of both of these bodies is by very narrow majority now. They could easily shift to one side or the other with the results of just a half dozen races each.
10. Just my opinion, but we need the checks an balances inherent in our system of government to work. For either candidate to win this election and gain a majority in both the House and the Senate would be a disaster that could effect our country for many years to come.
11. I will gladly discuss this post in a civilized manor.

I will leave this here and revisit it once the election is decided.

 

[All Becomes New]

Ms. Harris has staunch opposition from voters who will not vote for a female or a Black candidate. This means solid opposition to Ms. Harris as a Black Female.

I think you greatly overestimate how racist and sexist the American people are. I don't think many people actually care about this. People don't like that; saying not voting for her is racist and sexist. That is not the same thing as people not wanting to vote for her for being a Black Woman. Barack Obama was our first black president. So it's not that she is black; it's not that she is a woman, either. She is the sitting vice president, for example.

 

[longhair75]

I may have not made my point very clear. I do not think the general voter is racist and/or sexist. I think that Ms Harris will lose some votes for these reasons. It remains to be see if there is enough of those voters to tip the scales. As close as this election may be, those lost votes could make the difference.

 

[All Becomes New]

I may have not made my point very clear. I do not think the general voter is racist and/or sexist. I think that Ms Harris will lose some votes for these reasons. It remains to be see if there is enough of those voters to tip the scales. As close as this election may be, those lost votes could make the difference.

Fair enough.

I myself am not making any predictions on who is going to win the election. Not my lane.

 

[Wolseley]

I agree with much of what you've said, longhair. I won't go into a long analysis of each point; it's still too early for that and as you said, things might go either way. I have been reading that Trump is picking up more support from Black and Hispanic voters; but that may be the opinion of the pollsters, and as we all know, polls are about as substantial as air.

I will, however, comment on your point here:

7. If Ms. Harris wins, I expect civil disorder on a much larger scale that that of 01.06.2021. The social upheaval will be massive and the wide rift between the two parties will grow ever wider.

I fully agree with this, and this is what scares me more than anything else. If Trump wins, there will be challenges and protests and endless recounts, all of which will eventually amount to nothing. (Nancy Pelosi's head may explode, but that would be expected---the level of hatred that woman bears for Trump is incalculable.)

But if Harris wins, I fear the country will spiral down into literal sectarian warfare---something along the lines of Northern Ireland in 1971. There will be January 6th-type protests, which Harris will respond to with overkill, which will exacerbate the situation. Sooner or later, somebody's going to open fire on somebody else, and the first time some Fed with a chip on his shoulder collects a bullet in his chest, Harris (who is no fan of guns, as we all know), will come down with both feet on the 2nd Amendment, and try to impose something draconian and stupid by executive action, and then it's "goodbye, boys, we're off to the races."

I don't see states seceding from the Union, à la 1861, but I do see the massive growth of militia organizations, most of them quickly becoming heavily armed and uncompromisingly anti-big government. There may be the emergence of a right-wing mindset that the entire Federal government, as it is currently controlled by the two major political parties, is illegitimate, and must be "cleansed" in order to return to true American Constitutionalism.

There is every chance that Harris will send in the FBI and ATF after some group or other, Ruby Ridge-style, and somebody's relatives will end up getting shot to pieces, and if that happens, then "law and order" flies out the window. The militias and their supporters will not recognize the authority of any government organization, and will dedicate themselves to destroying what they view as an oppressive dictatorship. To use another analogy from The Troubles, when a howling mob smashed into the Bogside area of Derry at 2 AM, shattering windows and beating senseless any homeowners they could lay hands on, one man called the Royal Ulster Constabulary to report the riot; when he was put on hold, it suddenly occurred to him how ridiculous his action was: what good was calling the police to report a riot? The police were the ones taking part in the riot.

In such a scenario, there is no recognized order. Some men show up at a citizen's door with spiffy uniforms and shiny badges, and say, "We're from the Joint Task Force for Firearms Regulation, and according to our records, you not only own an AR-15 and several handguns, but your social media history indicate that you have made disparaging comments about President Harris, President Obama, Speaker Pelosi, and several others. You're coming with us." And, unlike the world before 2009, the citizen, instead of meekly going with the gentlemen with the badges because "they are the law", takes two steps back into his house and grabs the 9mm sitting on the hallway table, and he and three other members of the family who have been watching this from the shadows, open fire. The bodies of the officers with shiny badges are dumped into the trunk and the back seat of their vehicle, which is driven to a remote spot, set afire, and pushed off a ravine. There will be ambushes, bombings, attacks; hatred will grow, lines will solidify, revenge and reprisal will become the rule of the day. And it will go on, and on, and on.

This scenario may be influenced by a number of other things, of course; for example, if the armed forces decide to come down in favor of one side or the other, or if local police agencies refuse to carry out orders from D.C., or if the Chinese see their chance during the course of the chaos and arrive off the coast of L.A., Frisco, Seattle, and Portland in landing craft; but that's something that can't be predicted with any certainty. Sectarian violence can.

That's what scares me.

 

[mourningdove~]

I agree with much of what you've said, longhair. I won't go into a long analysis of each point; it's still too early for that and as you said, things might go either way. I have been reading that Trump is picking up more support from Black and Hispanic voters; but that may be the opinion of the pollsters, and as we all know, polls are about as substantial as air.

I will, however, comment on your point here:

I fully agree with this, and this is what scares me more than anything else. If Trump wins, there will be challenges and protests and endless recounts, all of which will eventually amount to nothing. (Nancy Pelosi's head may explode, but that would be expected---the level of hatred that woman bears for Trump is incalculable.)

But if Harris wins, I fear the country will spiral down into literal sectarian warfare---something along the lines of Northern Ireland in 1971. There will be January 6th-type protests, which Harris will respond to with overkill, which will exacerbate the situation. Sooner or later, somebody's going to open fire on somebody else, and the first time some Fed with a chip on his shoulder collects a bullet in his chest, Harris (who is no fan of guns, as we all know), will come down with both feet on the 2nd Amendment, and try to impose something draconian and stupid by executive action, and then it's "goodbye, boys, we're off to the races."

I don't see states seceding from the Union, à la 1861, but I do see the massive growth of militia organizations, most of them quickly becoming heavily armed and uncompromisingly anti-big government. There may be the emergence of a right-wing mindset that the entire Federal government, as it is currently controlled by the two major political parties, is illegitimate, and must be "cleansed" in order to return to true American Constitutionalism.

There is every chance that Harris will send in the FBI and ATF after some group or other, Ruby Ridge-style, and somebody's relatives will end up getting shot to pieces, and if that happens, then "law and order" flies out the window. The militias and their supporters will not recognize the authority of any government organization, and will dedicate themselves to destroying what they view as an oppressive dictatorship. To use another analogy from The Troubles, when a howling mob smashed into the Bogside area of Derry at 2 AM, shattering windows and beating senseless any homeowners they could lay hands on, one man called the Royal Ulster Constabulary to report the riot; when he was put on hold, it suddenly occurred to him how ridiculous his action was: what good was calling the police to report a riot? The police were the ones taking part in the riot.

In such a scenario, there is no recognized order. Some men show up at a citizen's door with spiffy uniforms and shiny badges, and say, "We're from the Joint Task Force for Firearms Regulation, and according to our records, you not only own an AR-15 and several handguns, but your social media history indicate that you have made disparaging comments about President Harris, President Obama, Speaker Pelosi, and several others. You're coming with us." And, unlike the world before 2009, the citizen, instead of meekly going with the gentlemen with the badges because "they are the law", takes two steps back into his house and grabs the 9mm sitting on the hallway table, and he and three other members of the family who have been watching this from the shadows, open fire. The bodies of the officers with shiny badges are dumped into the trunk and the back seat of their vehicle, which is driven to a remote spot, set afire, and pushed off a ravine. There will be ambushes, bombings, attacks; hatred will grow, lines will solidify, revenge and reprisal will become the rule of the day. And it will go on, and on, and on.

This scenario may be influenced by a number of other things, of course; for example, if the armed forces decide to come down in favor of one side or the other, or if local police agencies refuse to carry out orders from D.C., or if the Chinese see their chance during the course of the chaos and arrive off the coast of L.A., Frisco, Seattle, and Portland in landing craft; but that's something that can't be predicted with any certainty. Sectarian violence can.

That's what scares me.

I think your analysis needs to be heard, though it's painful to consider.
I see your analysis as being 'spot on'.


But so as not to sound too discouraging, there are some things I know I need to recognize and remember.
Maybe it will be helpful for others, too ...

We in this Country are witnessing a major spiritual battle, for the control of it. The reputable exorcists attest to the fact that there is a major increase in demonic activity that they are seeing ... in America, and globally ... and they tell us to expect more in the days ahead. They tell us to pray. And to not be afraid.

This battle we are in is not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this age, against spiritual hosts of wickedness in the heavenly places. For many of us, our weapon in this warfare (perhaps our only weapon) will be prayer. And that is a powerful weapon, especially when many of us are 'using' it ...

God does not leave us alone to fight in this battle.
So as fearful as things may appear, I am 'hearing' not to fear ...

 

[longhair75]

But if Harris wins, I fear the country will spiral down into literal sectarian warfare---something along the lines of Northern Ireland in 1971. There will be January 6th-type protests, which Harris will respond to with overkill, which will exacerbate the situation. Sooner or later, somebody's going to open fire on somebody else, and the first time some Fed with a chip on his shoulder collects a bullet in his chest, Harris (who is no fan of guns, as we all know), will come down with both feet on the 2nd Amendment, and try to impose something draconian and stupid by executive action, and then it's "goodbye, boys, we're off to the races."

I agree. There is a chance that if Mr. Trump loses his more zealous followers will attempt to overturn the election, this time with violence. There is even a slim chance that this could succeed. I fear for our democracy.

 

[Richard T]

I'm thinking judgment is coming no matter who is the President. Hostilities are escalating and sides are being drawn up. I do not think either that Trump, if elected can stop this. God help us all.

 

[longhair75]

Returning.

I was wrong about the margins being thin. Mr. Trump won a decisive victory. We will have a smooth and peaceful transfer of power.

8. If Mr. Trump wins, watch for attempts to get the 22nd amendment of the US Constitution to be repealed.
9. The House and Senate are also in play. Control of both of these bodies is by very narrow majority now. They could easily shift to one side or the other with the results of just a half dozen races each.
10. Just my opinion, but we need the checks an balances inherent in our system of government to work. For either candidate to win this election and gain a majority in both the House and the Senate would be a disaster that could effect our country for many years to come.

I still think that Mr. Trump will make an effort to eliminate the two term limitation set out by the 22nd Amendment.

The Republicans now have control of the Senate. The races have not all been called, but it is almost certain that the Republicans will retain control of the House as well. With the majority of the Supreme Court also firmly in the hands of the Republican party the checks and balances inherent in our system of government is in jeopardy. This, in my opinion, is a bad thing.

 

[Michie]

I really don’t see Trump trying to eliminate the two term limit. The man has fought long and hard uphill all the way. I think he’ll do his four years and go happily into retirement.

 

[longhair75]

Bumping this post

Rep. Andy Ogles, R-Tennesee has submitted a bill to allow Donald Trump to serve a third term

 

[Michie]

Bumping this post

Rep. Andy Ogles, R-Tennesee has submitted a bill to allow Donald Trump to serve a third term

It won’t happen.

 

[SeekFirst0]

It won’t happen.

The two term limit should be left as it is. It is good enough for me. I think I recall someone suggesting one 6 year term for Presidents, but I don’t mind the two terms.

 

[Michie]

We don’t need anymore career politicians.

He’ll be 82 after this term is over.

 

[longhair75]

8. If Mr. Trump wins, watch for attempts to get the 22nd amendment of the US Constitution to be repealed.

It only took eleven days.

It won’t happen.

It is impossible or this to happen in the four years of Mr. Trump's term. The mechanics of repealing an amendment, or even adding a new one, are impossible with current political divide.

Article V
The Congress, whenever two thirds of both houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose amendments to this Constitution, or, on the application of the legislatures of two thirds of the several states, shall call a convention for proposing amendments, which, in either case, shall be valid to all intents and purposes, as part of this Constitution, when ratified by the legislatures of three fourths of the several states, or by conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other mode of ratification may be proposed by the Congress; provided that no amendment which may be made prior to the year one thousand eight hundred and eight shall in any manner affect the first and fourth clauses in the ninth section of the first article; and that no state, without its consent, shall be deprived of its equal suffrage in the Senate.

There is no legislation that will garner a two thirds majority in both houses. At this point, neither the DEMs or the GOPs will ever manage to get two thirds majority in either house.

My point was that I expected that there will be attempts made. I did not forecast that they will they will succeed.

Note: Article V is also the reason why Donald Trump's efforts to end birthright citizenship will fail. The 14th amendment is crystal clear on the subject.

 

[longhair75]

Bumping this to return to my prediction #8:

From the news yesterday: Trump says he is considering ways to serve a third term as President