- Jan 29, 2017
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I've seen the claim floating around that lockdowns are bad for the economy and that a poor economy will lead to greater mortality rates than COVID-19.
However, in digging into the research on the economic effects on mortality rates, it appears the opposite is the case: high times for economies appear to have worse mortality rates than during recessions or depressions.
A downside to an up economy? Mortality rates increase in better times
The article also makes reference to other studies appear to suggest the same thing: that good economic times counter-intuitively appear to increase mortality rates.
There is also research on the Great Depression in particular that suggests that again, counter-intuitively people lived longer during it:
Despite Hard Times, People Lived Longer During the Great Depression
However, in digging into the research on the economic effects on mortality rates, it appears the opposite is the case: high times for economies appear to have worse mortality rates than during recessions or depressions.
A downside to an up economy? Mortality rates increase in better times
“In developed countries, mortality rates increase during upward cycles in the economy, and decrease during downward cycles,” wrote Herbert J. A. Rolden, a researcher at the Leyden Academy on Vitality and Ageing. The academy is a research institute affiliated with Leiden University and its medical center and is supported, in part, by health-related private companies and non-profits in the Netherlands.
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Overall, they found that for every 1% increase in gross domestic product (GDP), the death rate for men 70 to 74 years of age increased by about a third of a percentage point (0.36%). The increase was just as large for men 40 to 44 years old (0.38%).
The effect was similar for women, though smaller. The mortality rate for women aged 70 to 74 increased by 0.18% for every 1% increase in gross domestic product and 0.15% among middle-aged women.
...
Overall, they found that for every 1% increase in gross domestic product (GDP), the death rate for men 70 to 74 years of age increased by about a third of a percentage point (0.36%). The increase was just as large for men 40 to 44 years old (0.38%).
The effect was similar for women, though smaller. The mortality rate for women aged 70 to 74 increased by 0.18% for every 1% increase in gross domestic product and 0.15% among middle-aged women.
The article also makes reference to other studies appear to suggest the same thing: that good economic times counter-intuitively appear to increase mortality rates.
There is also research on the Great Depression in particular that suggests that again, counter-intuitively people lived longer during it:
Despite Hard Times, People Lived Longer During the Great Depression
The Great Depression was a difficult, life-altering period in the United States when millions of people struggled to find work and get by. Despite the tough times, the average life spans of Americans actually increased.
In fact, historical research shows that during the 20th century, increases in U.S. mortality often occurred during times of economic prosperity, while decreases occurred during economic depressions or recessions.
For anyone fearing the effects of a recession as a result of the lockdown measures and economic disruption, it appears those fears may be unfounded.In fact, historical research shows that during the 20th century, increases in U.S. mortality often occurred during times of economic prosperity, while decreases occurred during economic depressions or recessions.
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