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An exercise in reality

Sauron

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North Korea:

  • Possesses one, perhaps two, nuclear weapons
  • Possesses a delivery mechanism that can hit the USA
  • Surrounded on four sides by major countries with whom the USA has strategic military and economic interests (Russia, China, Japan, S Korea);
  • Surrounded on two sides by nuclear superpowers (Russia, China), so any war there would involve three nuclear powered countries, with enormous armies and millions dead;
  • Several of the countries around it are linked to the USA by military treaties (S Korea, Japan) thus necessitating our involvement in any such war;
  • has the world's 4th largest standing army;
  • Has the world's largest special ops forces;
  • Has declared that even the something like renewed sanctions would be an act of war;
  • Ruled by a man who is quite possibly medically/clinically unstable;

Iraq

  • Possesses no nuclear weapons at all;
  • Best missile only goes 150 miles, and then only in the test and development phase (as opposed to broad deployment);
  • Has been under sanctions for 14 years, and a no-fly zone for almost the same amount of time, thus crippling its economy and infras
  • Is not surrounded by nuclear superpowers, or key economic partners;
  • Is ruled by a very savage, but canny military general

Hmm.  Which one do YOU think poses the biggest threat to the US, and the American way of life??
 

Blackhawk

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Aren't we dealing with both of these countries rgiht now? Yes. So I do not see your point. Oh and I think Iraq is dangerous because it might attack Israel which might bring the whole middle East into war and because of the terrorist thing.

But I would say Korea worries me more than Iraq. However both need to be dealt with and bot hare serious.
 
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Sauron

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Today at 07:35 PM Blackhawk said this in Post #2

Aren't we dealing with both of these countries rgiht now? Yes.



No. 

In the first case, we're refusing to have direct talks with N Korea.  And we're pussyfooting around, trying backdoor diplomacy through 3rd party countries.  No attempt to disarm, no attempt to enact "regime change" in North Korea, either.

In the 2nd case, we're amassing an army of 150,000 men, 4 carrier battle groups, three different military alliances, conducting covert operations and secret surveillance flights, all with the intent of disarming Iraq and replacing its ruler.

If you can't see the difference, then you need to pull your head out of the sand.

So I do not see your point.

You're a master of deliberately skipping the obvious truths, Blackhawk.

Oh and I think Iraq is dangerous because it might attack Israel

In the first place, Iraq cannot attack Israel, except possiblyw with a few outdated missiles.  Their ability to do so has been pretty much eliminated since the last time they tried it.

In the second place, Israel's ability to strike back against Iraq is far greater this time, thus giving a deterrent.

And in the third place - so what if they did attack Israel? It's still not the same as North Korea attacking Japan or Russia.   Israel is still not a major economic or military partner (indeed; they actually suck the US dry for $6 billion a year, and recently requested $10 billion more).  Furthermore, we dont' have any military defense treaties with Israel.

which might bring the whole middle East into war and because of the terrorist thing.

It didn't happen in the first gulf war, why woudl it happen now?

But I would say Korea worries me more than Iraq. However both need to be dealt with and bot hare serious.

Korea is about 20 times more serious than Iraq.  In fact, Iraq didn't even become a problem until last summer, when:

  1. a string of corporate scandals (Enron, Tyco, Worldcom, Halliburton, etc.) hit the front page, and the Dubya administration's close ties to those companies started to leak to the press;
  2. the embarassiing inability of the administration to find Osama bin Laden or conclusively eradicate AlQaeda started to be noticed in Congress and the press; and
  3. a midterm election started to approach, and Dubya knew that his poll numbers on domestic policy were slipping;

It was only after 1, 2 and 3 above came into play, that we started to hear the Dubya White House talk about Iraq. 
 
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Sauron

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Today at 08:17 PM Outspoken said this in Post #4

"And we're pussyfooting around, trying backdoor diplomacy through 3rd party countries. "

You mean applying poltilical pressure



Huh? No political pressure is being applied. These are only talks.  No pressure there; just lots of begging and pleading.

Just another topic that you don't understand in the least, I guess..

and not talking to them straight as to validate their threads?

If you want to solve a disagreement, how else do you do it, other than to talk to the person that you disagree with?

 "Mary, tell John that I don't like what he said about me." 

"Mary, tell Susan that I didn't say that"....

With Mary acting as a go-between, instead of the warring parties talking face-to-face.

Sending someone else to talk doesn't accomplish the task.  It's just a silly playground game. Grow up.




 
 
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strathyboy

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Today at 04:03 AM Sauron said this in Post #3 (http://www.christianforums.com/showthread.php?postid=652146#post652146)

It didn't happen in the first gulf war, why woudl it happen now?

I'll just point out that it was only through the diplomatic action of the United States that Israel did not respond to Iraq's scud missiles with nuclear ones. We almost had nuclear war last time, and Israel has vowed that if Iraq hits them again, they will use nuclear weapons on Iraq.

Other than that, I pretty much agree with what you wrote.
 
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Sauron

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Today at 09:24 PM strathyboy said this in Post #6

I'll just point out that it was only through the diplomatic action of the United States that Israel did not respond to Iraq's scud missiles with nuclear ones. We almost had nuclear war last time, and Israel has vowed that if Iraq hits them again, they will use nuclear weapons on Iraq.

Other than that, I pretty much agree with what you wrote.

The diplomatic intervention prevented Israel from retaliating.  We don't know how or with what they would have retaliated, but it is highly unlikely that they would have used nuclear weapons.

For one, the Israelis have steadfastly denied they possess such weapons - even though nobody believes them.  In the second place, use of nuclear weapons could have put Desert Storm forces (American, Canadian, British) at risk from fallout and radioactive exposure.  In the 3rd place, the use of such a terrible weapon would have destroyed the Saudi, Kuwaiti and Syrian alliance that existed at the time - they were part of the Desert Storm coalition, remember?  In the 4th place, use of nuclear weapons would have made the oil fields unusable for thousands of years, due to radioactivity; in the 5th place, the prevailing winds could have pushed the radioactive debris into friendly or neutral countries, etc.

It simply isn't a plausible scenario.
 
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Blackhawk

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Today at 04:03 AM Sauron said this in Post #3

No. 

In the first case, we're refusing to have direct talks with N Korea.  And we're pussyfooting around, trying backdoor diplomacy through 3rd party countries.  No attempt to disarm, no attempt to enact "regime change" in North Korea, either.

In the 2nd case, we're amassing an army of 150,000 men, 4 carrier battle groups, three different military alliances, conducting covert operations and secret surveillance flights, all with the intent of disarming Iraq and replacing its ruler.

If you can't see the difference, then you need to pull your head out of the sand.


Okay so since you disagree with how we are doing it then we are not doing it at all.  I see.  But there is no attempt to disarm?  Huh?  I know we have told N korea to not develop any nuclear capabilities.  We have basically said do not arm. 


You're a master of deliberately skipping the obvious truths, Blackhawk.

I guess this was supposed to make me upset.  Sorry.  I told you the reasons why I did not see your point.  The government is worried about both Iraq and N Korea.  Your first post made it sound like we were not doing anything to stop them.  That is untrue and you know it because you posted so above. 

In the first place, Iraq cannot attack Israel, except possiblyw with a few outdated missiles.  Their ability to do so has been pretty much eliminated since the last time they tried it.
 

 The Israel is concerned for no reason huh?  And how do you know this since we really do not know what weapons they do and do not have.  You don't.  I don't.  The inspectors don't.

In the second place, Israel's ability to strike back against Iraq is far greater this time, thus giving a deterrent.
 

This was true before it is not an effective detterent when you think the other nation is evil incarnate.

And in the third place - so what if they did attack Israel? It's still not the same as North Korea attacking Japan or Russia.   Israel is still not a major economic or military partner (indeed; they actually suck the US dry for $6 billion a year, and recently requested $10 billion more).  Furthermore, we dont' have any military defense treaties with Israel.
 

Well since many feel that if WW3 does occur that a good starting place is the Middle East and given the history of the hebrews and the arab nations your comment is absurd.  I can see you do not like Israel but you have to be able to see that Israel being attacked is not a good thing for world peace.  And I do not want N Korea to attack Japan either.  


It didn't happen in the first gulf war, why woudl it happen now?
 

we were very lucky it didn't.  Like others have said Israel would of likely responded if not for us.  However if they did attack then it would not be a huge stretch to have another Muslim nationenter into the fight agaist Israel and then who knows what. 

Korea is about 20 times more serious than Iraq.  In fact, Iraq didn't even become a problem until last summer, when:

  1. a string of corporate scandals (Enron, Tyco, Worldcom, Halliburton, etc.) hit the front page, and the Dubya administration's close ties to those companies started to leak to the press;
  2. the embarassiing inability of the administration to find Osama bin Laden or conclusively eradicate AlQaeda started to be noticed in Congress and the press; and
  3. a midterm election started to approach, and Dubya knew that his poll numbers on domestic policy were slipping;

It was only after 1, 2 and 3 above came into play, that we started to hear the Dubya White House talk about Iraq. 

Oh please if you do not like President Bush and his politics okay but to say what you are saying is absurd.  You could say that 9/11 provoked a more serious look into Iraq but not hat you said above.  Your bias is so revealing in your posts it makes a serious look at them folly. 
 
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Sauron

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Today at 07:37 AM Blackhawk said this in Post #9

Okay so since you disagree with how we are doing it then we are not doing it at all.  I see. 

It's not a question of "how" we are dealing with N Korea; the fact is that we are not dealing with them at all.  Talks through 3rd parties aren't doing anything.  See any results yet?  No.  Wonder why? Because we aren't having direct talks.

This isn't rocket science.

But there is no attempt to disarm?  Huh?  I know we have told N korea to not develop any nuclear capabilities.  We have basically said do not arm. 

Big frickin' deal. We've told every non-nuclear power in the world not to develop nuclear capabilities also.  Are you seriously saying that such a warning constitutes an attempt to disarm?

If you're getting ready to shoot someone in the head, and I tell you "don't do that", have I made an attempt to disarm you?  Of course not.

Telling someone "don't do that" isn't an attempt to disarm them.  How lame, Blackhawk; I'm surprised you even tried to throw such a lame excuse out; it's obvious you didn't think about it before posting.


I guess this was supposed to make me upset.  Sorry.  I told you the reasons why I did not see your point. 

Yes.  You're a conservative, and you aren't going to say anything critical of Dubya's foreign policy.  But you don't have anything substantial; just a bias.


The government is worried about both Iraq and N Korea.  Your first post made it sound like we were not doing anything to stop them.  That is untrue and you know it because you posted so above. 

Except that the govt is not doing anything to stop NKorea.  And your claim that telling them "naughty, naughty, don't do that" somehow means we're doing something - that's downright laughable, Blackhawk.

  

The Israel is concerned for no reason huh? 

That's correct.

And how do you know this since we really do not know what weapons they do and do not have.  You don't.  I don't.  The inspectors don't.

Wrong. The inspectors have a very good idea of what the Iraqis have.  And so do the Israelis, and the USA. That's what military intelligence is all about. 

Morever--and you deliberately ignored this point because you couldn't refute it--there is the past history of the economic and military sanctions.  It stands to reason that, in comparison to the first Gulf War, Iraq has far less military hardware today, because it has been under lockdown for 14 years.  It wasn't under sanctions prior to that Gulf War, and was buying arms left and right. 

Even then, all that Iraq could manage was a few Scud missles that (more often than not) missed their targets and/or were shot down by Patriot missiles.  Your near-total ignorance of the military history of that event is seriously affecting your ability to discuss this.



This was true before it is not an effective detterent when you think the other nation is evil incarnate.

Huh?  That's total and utter nonsense.  If Israel's ability to retaliate wasn't a deterrent, then Iraq would have already attacked them last year, the year before, or some other time. 

Besides, Iraq has always thought that Israel was "evil incarnate", to use your silly terminology.  They thought that about Israel back in the first Gulf war, and they continue to think that way now.  So I don't know what point you thought you were going to prove, by throwing that into the discussion.

You're just guessing now, because your position is so weak.


 
Well since many feel that if WW3 does occur that a good starting place is the Middle East and given the history of the hebrews and the arab nations your comment is absurd.

You've just demonstrated that you know zero about military planning. 

As far as the military goes, there's been far more focus on another world war starting in the Korean peninsula, since Americans fought there before, since no peace treaty was ever signed there, since it's ringed by two other nuclear powers, since nuclear showdowns occurred with China there previously, since the million men in the NKorean army are projected to quickly overrun the SKorean defenses and be in Seoul in a matter of days, killing tens of thousands of American GIs in the process, and since we'd have to act in order to prevent Japan from acting on its own, which would destabilize all of Asia.  Oh, and I might add:  the NKoreans frequently test and probe the SKorean defenses, building undergroudn tunnels for ferrying troops, creating border incidents along the 38th parallel, etc.   

The other key theater for such a war to break out was in Europe, since NATO and Warsaw Pact forces were head-to-head there as well, since our conventional forces were far less than Warsaw Pact forces (meaning that we would have to go nuclear first, to stave off an invasion), and since the E European states were slowly trying to break away from the USSR; i.e., Poland and the Baltic states.

But that's all changed now.  Since the fall of the USSR, that theater is no longer seen as a potential WW3 flashpoint.  Same thing for the Mideast; since the USSR is no longer around and trying to extend its influence into the area, there is no potential for superpower conflict there.   That only leaves the Korean peninsula as a serious flashpoint for superpower military conflict.

So the "many" who feel that the Mideast is a potential flashpoint for world war are mostly fundamentalist christians with their rapture conspiracies, and not actual military planners.   

I can see you do not like Israel but you have to be able to see that Israel being attacked is not a good thing for world peace.  And I do not want N Korea to attack Japan either.  

Irrelevant.  As I  indicated above, Iraq's ability to attack Israel is far less than it was during the first Gulf war, and Israel's ability to retaliate is much higher than it was previously.  You're blowing Iraq's ability way out of proportion, due to your total lack of knowledge in this area.


we were very lucky it didn't. 

Huh?  It wasn't luck at all; the situation you're describing simply was not (and is not) plausible. 

Like others have said Israel would of likely responded if not for us. 

Which would have fractured the Gulf coalition forces.  I pointed that out; I doubt you knew about it prior to that.

However if they did attack then it would not be a huge stretch to have another Muslim nationenter into the fight agaist Israel and then who knows what. 

Actually, it would be a huge stretch.  With the US and the UK over there right now,  no other Arab nation is going to want to side with Iraq and be declared a supporter of a terrorist state.  That would just make them a target for US/British invasion as well.

As I said:  your cartoon scenario simply isn't plausible - at least not to anyone who knows a nickel's worth about the facts.


Oh please if you do not like President Bush and his politics okay but to say what you are saying is absurd. 

ON the contrary. What I said is exactly on target.

You could say that 9/11 provoked a more serious look into Iraq but not hat you said above. 

And if I said that, I'd be lying - because 9/11 did not do any such thing.  9/11 happened in September. The Dubya administration said nothing about Iraq in September of 2001. Iraq wasn't an issue at all.

  • They said nothing about Iraq in October of 2001.
  • They said nothing in November of 2001.
  • They said nothing in December of 2001.
  • Nothing in January, February, or March of 2002.
  • Nothing in April, May or June of 2002.
  • Nothing in July of 2002.

They said absolutely nothing, until the entire corporate scandal mess hit the press wires, and until the election campaign for midterm congressional seats was about ready to start.  That, and zero signficant progress was made on hunting down bin Laden.

Dubya needed a distraction, and he knew that his domestic numbers were really low. The country rallies around a president in times of war and external threat.  So if you don't have a real external threat ,then by golly - manufacture one.  That's exactly what happened here.

 

Your bias is so revealing in your posts it makes a serious look at them folly. 

It's strange how the utterly unlearned in such matters see an informed opinion as biased. 
 
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Sauron, I agree with you on this issue.
They said nothing about Iraq in October of 2001.

They said nothing in November of 2001.

They said nothing in December of 2001.

Nothing in January, February, or March of 2002.

Nothing in April, May or June of 2002.

Nothing in July of 2002.

Ominously something was said (behind closed doors) in September of 2002. That something was said by Donald Rumsfeld to his aids. The "something" can be inferred from the notes taken by his aids in a meeting on September 11 shortly after Bin Laden was pegged as the culprit by intelligence:
(Rumsfeld wants)"best info fast. Judge whether good enough hit S.H. at same time. Not only UBL."

And...

"Go massive. Sweep it all up. Things related and not"


http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/09/04/september11/printable520830.shtml
 
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Sauron

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Today at 10:50 AM Jerry Smith said this in Post #12

Sauron, I agree with you on this issue.


Ominously something was said (behind closed doors) in September of 2002. That something was said by Donald Rumsfeld to his aids. The "something" can be inferred from the notes taken by his aids in a meeting on September 11 shortly after Bin Laden was pegged as the culprit by intelligence:


And...




http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/09/04/september11/printable520830.shtml

Yep.  As I suspected.  The President Bush administration is using the excuse of fighting terrorism to push its entire foreign policy agenda.

And to reward corporate donors and oil companies at the same time.

Thanks Jerry.
 
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Evangelion

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A sensible dialogue is all I'm looking for.

If I meet people don't want to give it, I'll question their motives - especially when they throw out the usual insults ("anti-American", for example) without addressing the issues.

I don't think that's unreasonable. :cool:
 
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Blindfaith

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A sensible dialogue?&nbsp; Your response 4 posts back don't reflect a sensible dialogue.&nbsp; I don't think the few who are here who oppose every breath that President Bush takes, is looking for a sensible dialogue.&nbsp; From everything that I've read, and have watched how the threads progress (or regress) down the toilet, sensible dialogue is the last thing I'm witnessing.&nbsp; Calling for blood is more like it.

[to all posters]

I'm suggesting that the tones of these threads change.&nbsp; There's room for disagreements, and a healthy debate.&nbsp; But there's no room for some of the filth and vomit that's being spewed in this forum.

I'm not the only Moderator that's noticed and commented on this.&nbsp; This is a Christian website, and whether or not you're a Christian, it's expected that all conduct themselves in a respectful matter, and adhere to the rules set and agreed upon by all who joined.
 
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Evangelion

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Blindfaith -

A sensible dialogue? Your response 4 posts back don't reflect a sensible dialogue.

I posted a compliment to Sauron. Is that really so bad? If so, what was bad about it?

Meanwhile, have you taken a look at the other posts I have on this board? If you don't think I'm looking for a sensible dialogue, I'd like to know why, please.

I don't think the few who are here who oppose every breath that President Bush takes, is looking for a sensible dialogue.

I haven't seen anyone here who opposes every breath that Bush takes. Even I agree with Bush's policy towards Iraq on several points. I've made this very clear.

From everything that I've read, and have watched how the threads progress (or regress) down the toilet, sensible dialogue is the last thing I'm witnessing. Calling for blood is more like it.

I haven't seen anybody calling for blood. If you have some examples, I'd like to see them, please.

[to all posters]

I'm suggesting that the tones of these threads change. There's room for disagreements, and a healthy debate. But there's no room for some of the filth and vomit that's being spewed in this forum.

I haven't seen any "filth and vomit." If you have some examples, I'd like to see them, please.

By the way, is it OK for the Bush supporters to say things like this...?

  • Your bias is so revealing in your posts it makes a serious look at them folly.

I'm not the only Moderator that's noticed and commented on this. This is a Christian website, and whether or not you're a Christian, it's expected that all conduct themselves in a respectful matter, and adhere to the rules set and agreed upon by all who joined.

That's perfectly fair. I certainly don't have a problem with it.

Does this mean I can now post without being slapped with the "anti-American" label every five minutes?

I'd like to have that reassurance, if at all possible. :cool:
 
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I'd just like to mention how scary the severely conservative people on these boards sound when they use attacks on character or general rebuttals such as "What you're saying is absurd" or what have you. It's all so scary because they don't have any real reason to support what they support except that their parents felt that way, they raised them that way, and these conservative people make up about half our country! It's mind-boggling!
 
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Outspoken

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"If you want to solve a disagreement, how else do you do it, other than to talk to the person that you disagree with?
"

That's find and good if you're a person, but we are talking about international affairs here. By directly sitting down with then we validate their threats and they will just do this again when they don't get their way. That's how the game is played. You apply econimic pressure in reponse to threats of force. Britian did it to us in the old says, don't ya read history?
 
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Sauron

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Today at 05:41 PM Outspoken said this in Post #19

"If you want to solve a disagreement, how else do you do it, other than to talk to the person that you disagree with?
"

That's find and good if you're a person, but we are talking about international affairs here.



The principle still applies.

You lose.

By directly sitting down with then we validate their threats and they will just do this again when they don't get their way.

And if you don't sit down and talk to them, the threat continues.&nbsp; Which would you prefer?

I mean, if you're going to appeal to international affairs as being different, then you also have to have a complex undrestanding of how nations interact and negotiate delicate details.

Dubya's current approach of sticking his fingers in his ears doesn't work for interpersonal relations any better than it works for countries.

That's how the game is played.

As if you knew diddly about it.&nbsp; Hint:&nbsp; all players in the international arena approach each other with threats, both open and hidden.&nbsp; If they followed your silly idea of not talking because someone uttered a threat, then nobody would talk to anybody.

You apply econimic pressure in reponse to threats of force.

Don't know much about NKorea, do you?
They've been under economic embargo for years.&nbsp; Didn't make the threat go away, did it?

Didn't work in Iraq either.&nbsp; Or Cuba.&nbsp; Or China.&nbsp; Wow. Great concept you got there, Einstein.

Britian did it to us in the old says,

Care to quote an example?&nbsp;

don't ya read history?

Far more than you do.&nbsp;

&nbsp;


&nbsp;
 
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