Almost 50 Years Of Dealing With The Energy Crisis

mark46 · Mar 6, 2022

Fantine said:
When you said nuclear plants are too regulated you lost credibility with me..

That's fine. Join the anti-science crowd. I've studied energy, nuclear power, and the regulation of energy for my entire working life.

It is the anti-nuclear leftists that have kept us as captives to OPEC for 50 years.
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Just an exercise, you might look at actual data. Look at injuries and deaths at power plants in the US: oil, gas, coal and nuclear. Also, you should include the injuries and deaths in the production of fuel for those plants.

The data is very, very clear. Nuclear is by far the safest way to produce energy.

Fantine · Mar 6, 2022

I agree, like most clean energy advocates, that other than solar and wind, nuclear is the best alternative.
It's safe precisely because of regulation--but a threat noone ever envisioned occurred. A nuclear plant was bombed by air.
I could not help but think that our ABM system can monitor and shoot incoming missiles before the reach the atmosphere...
But no one thought any megalomaniac would bomb a power plant.
There is nothing wrong with no fly zones. NYC has implemented no fly zones (below a certain # of feet.) Airports have a no-drone zone--why not power plants?
There is sensible regulation--there is overly capitalistic foolhardiness. You are advocating the latter.

bekkilyn · Mar 6, 2022

Solar and wind aren't exactly clean or environmentally friendly either. To provide enough solar panels to replace oil or natural gas, you will need to destroy lots and lots of land strip mining for materials and wind destroys thousands to millions of migrating birds, and many birds are already endangered and/or have decreasing populations.

mark46 · Mar 6, 2022

Fantine said:
I agree, like most clean energy advocates, that other than solar and wind, nuclear is the best alternative.
It's safe precisely because of regulation--but a threat noone ever envisioned occurred. A nuclear plant was bombed by air.
I could not help but think that our ABM system can monitor and shoot incoming missiles before the reach the atmosphere...
But no one thought any megalomaniac would bomb a power plant.
There is nothing wrong with no fly zones. NYC has implemented no fly zones (below a certain # of feet.) Airports have a no-drone zone--why not power plants?
There is sensible regulation--there is overly capitalistic foolhardiness. You are advocating the latter.

fair enough

I apologize for misunderstanding your concerns.

I strongly AGREE that there should sensible regulation. Unregulated capitalism is indeed a disaster.

US regulations regarding nuclear plants should be compared with those of Canada and France. It is regulation that has forced huge overrides in design costs and the lack of standardization of plants. Using Canada's CANDU designs and their approach to site development would have saved many billions and huge amounts of time. We could have double or triple the number of plants by now.
=====================
Regulations, ever overzealous regulations, were tested at 3 Mile Island. This was a HUGE success for the industry and for regulation. HOWEVER, the result was different. Upon pressure from the left, the industry was virtually stopped in its tracks because of additional, unneeded regulation.

Fantine · Mar 6, 2022

There is a company in my state that us working with a new way to extract lithium without all the water use.

Others are filtering the water used in fracking to extract different minerals, including lithium.

In Atlantic City (and possibly other places) wind farms are housed in the water...birds always stay by land.

The risk/reward ratio is tiny compared to nuclear. And none for endangering climate.

Fantine · Mar 6, 2022

Don't you think a no fly zone is wise?

mark46 · Mar 6, 2022

Fantine said:
Don't you think a no fly zone is wise?

I do not support a no-fly zone. Are we really ready to shoot down Russian planes? In any case, Biden and the NATO allies are NOT ready to directly engage the Russian military.

The US is doing ALMOST all it can, with the full participation of almost all Western countries. Additional steps include: 1) further exclusion of Russian from dollar transactions, 2) a ceasing of all energy purchase from Russia, 3) removing embargoes on Iran and Venezuelan oil, and 4) pressuring countries to increase production (INCLUDING Saudi Arabia and the other sheiks.

Apparently, Europe has enough energy for the next few months. We need an international plan to replace Russian energy. This strategy may not work if China simply buys more from Russia and less from other countries.
==================================
I do favor sending lots of fighter planes to the Ukraine. That will be done. The planes will come in through Poland. The US will replace those given to Ukraine with new more modern planes to Poland. Many countries have been sending Stingers and Javelins, which have been very useful against planes and tanks. Drones have also been sent.

Realize that Sarajevo was under siege for four years. i don't know how long the Ukrainians will have to suffer.

Ana the Ist · Mar 7, 2022

mark46 said:
The uses of oil have been and are threefold.

USE ONE - POWER PLANTS
This use has decreased to almost zero, being replaced primarily by natural gas.

USE TWO - TRANSPORTATION
First, the efficiency of vehicles has increased tremendously, moving from auto at 10 miles per gallon to autos with 30 or 40 miles per gallon. The use of electric cars has increased dramatically. Ford can't produce enough electric trucks to meet demand. Fleets of buses are often fueled by natural gas. So, yes, the use of oil for transportation will decrease.

USE THREE - INDUSTRY
Of course, this is the best use of oil. There is no effort to eliminate its us in industry. There has been an international effort to make industrial processes and plants more efficient in the use of oil. This use might continue to increase, but the increase would be offset with the decrease in the use of oil for power plants and transportation.

Use one....while it's definitely a good thing we aren't using petroleum to heat homes, natural gas isn't "clean"....it's just less dirty.

Use two...cars are a great example. The real problem is when one considers other petroleum fueled vehicles like airplanes, or massive cargo ships, or military vehicles....and realizes no replacement even exists.

Use three....really tied to use two in many ways....and worse, tied to something like 80+% of products that reach the market in some way.

No offense, but the overall trend is only increased use over time.

Global oil demand 2006-2026 | Statista

That's because you can't fuel an entire economy on petroleum....then later, remove petroleum from the equation.

The only realistic way to look at this is....

We're going to use every last drop. All of it. Unless a completely revolutionary new fuel source is found, that doesn't exist now, we're going to use it all.

And suffer the consequences.

disciple Clint · Mar 7, 2022

Opdrey said:
Because God created us with free will. Since the Fall we have been aware of good and evil and God has allowed us to behave according to our will for quite a while now. It is OUR WILL that we destroy one of the greatest gifts He gave to us: the earth.

You've heard the story of the man drowning in the ocean and he prayed to God to save him. Then a Coast Guard boat came upon him but he refused to get on because he was waiting for God to save him. God sent the Coast Guard boat, but the man didn't see it that way.

That's us. We have the power to alter our climate and we are blessed by God with a massive brain to understand what we are doing. God has done all He needs to do. Now it's up to us to choose whether we simply stew in our own mess or actually get up and do something.

Because it isn't miniscule. The scientists are telling you clearly what is going on. Are you able to understand the science in that detail? Who is most prideful then?

One simple answer to all that, God will return and end this world on His schedule, nothing we do or fail to do will change that. All this climate change nonsense is just exactly that nonsense, the world has experienced the same changes in the past and will experience the same changes in the future.

disciple Clint · Mar 7, 2022

Desk trauma said:
Does that apply to other emissions of human activity, say sewage and nuclear waste, or just the results of hydrocarbon combustion?

It applies to God being sovereign

disciple Clint · Mar 7, 2022

mark46 said:
utter nonsense

Nonsense??? Nonsense is being capable of supplying all of the nations energy nations but not doing so because it would interfere with the "green new deal" there by trading national security for pipe dreams.

disciple Clint · Mar 7, 2022

mark46 said:
more nonsense

Have you really forgotten the command to be good stewards of the world?

Have you forgotten that God is sovereign?

Desk trauma · Mar 7, 2022

disciple Clint said:
It applies to God being sovereign

Non answer is a non answer.

mark46 · Mar 7, 2022

disciple Clint said:
Have you forgotten that God is sovereign?

Of course not
God being sovereign does not remove human responsibilities

mark46 · Mar 7, 2022

Ana the Ist said:
Use one....while it's definitely a good thing we aren't using petroleum to heat homes, natural gas isn't "clean"....it's just less dirty.

Use two...cars are a great example. The real problem is when one considers other petroleum fueled vehicles like airplanes, or massive cargo ships, or military vehicles....and realizes no replacement even exists.

Use three....really tied to use two in many ways....and worse, tied to something like 80+% of products that reach the market in some way.

No offense, but the overall trend is only increased use over time.

Global oil demand 2006-2026 | Statista

That's because you can't fuel an entire economy on petroleum....then later, remove petroleum from the equation.

The only realistic way to look at this is....

We're going to use every last drop. All of it. Unless a completely revolutionary new fuel source is found, that doesn't exist now, we're going to use it all.

And suffer the consequences.

I agree with all that you have stated. I just a bit more optimism.

An example is transportation. You focus on the reality that we are still years away from alternatives in fueling airplanes and ships. I agree. The use there is likely to continue to rise. I focus on the enormous shift in the fueling of autos and trucks that will greatly accelerate in the next few years. The issue here is supply chain and the ability to keep up with demand for electric vehicles. The huge change in 2021 was the move toward electric trucks. Ford can't produce fast enough to meet demand.

As far as natural gas being "less dirty", it is much, much less dirty than oil and coal. Unless we have are willing to build lots more nuclear plants, natural gas will be in the mix for many decades.

I also believe that you have minimized the efforts in so many industries to increase efficiency and to develop new processes that use less petroleum. Carbon neutrality may be a lofty goal, and perhaps unreachable. However, having that goal is driving companies and countries toward less use of petroleum.

Opdrey · Mar 7, 2022

disciple Clint said:
One simple answer to all that, God will return and end this world on His schedule, nothing we do or fail to do will change that. All this climate change nonsense is just exactly that nonsense, the world has experienced the same changes in the past and will experience the same changes in the future.

How do you know climate change is nonsense? Are you a trained climate scientist?

Here's the fact of the matter: climate change is real, we know what is likely behind it and we know what we need to do. If you wish to throw your hands up and say "God's gonna do what He's gonna do", that's fine. If someone gave me a gift I don't think I'd tear it up in front of them and say "Thanks, now give me something better."

But that is exactly what this sounds like to me.

So just stay out of the way while the rest of us attempt to take some responsibility for our actions and be a good steward of this great gift.

Fantine · Mar 7, 2022

mark46 said:
I do not support a no-fly zone. Are we really ready to shoot down Russian planes? In any case, Biden and the NATO allies are NOT ready to directly engage the Russian military.

The US is doing ALMOST all it can, with the full participation of almost all Western countries. Additional steps include: 1) further exclusion of Russian from dollar transactions, 2) a ceasing of all energy purchase from Russia, 3) removing embargoes on Iran and Venezuelan oil, and 4) pressuring countries to increase production (INCLUDING Saudi Arabia and the other sheiks.

Apparently, Europe has enough energy for the next few months. We need an international plan to replace Russian energy. This strategy may not work if China simply buys more from Russia and less from other countries.
==================================
I do favor sending lots of fighter planes to the Ukraine. That will be done. The planes will come in through Poland. The US will replace those given to Ukraine with new more modern planes to Poland. Many countries have been sending Stingers and Javelins, which have been very useful against planes and tanks. Drones have also been sent.

Realize that Sarajevo was under siege for four years. i don't know how long the Ukrainians will have to suffer.

I am not talking about no-fly zones in Ukraine. I am talking about keeping drones and planes from flying over nuclear power plants right here in the United States. The no fly area should be big enough so that a plane or drone crossing its threshold could be shot down if it refused to comply with the order to change course.
I have just found a map (12 years old) that shows that some nuclear facilities are protected by no fly zones in the U.S. but there are others unprotected (like the ones in my low-regulation red state, ugh!)
This should be changed.
R.e9a1b0b81776798ba5596235d8fcd845 (842×534) (bing.com)

Opdrey · Mar 7, 2022

Ana the Ist said:
The only realistic way to look at this is....

We're going to use every last drop. All of it. Unless a completely revolutionary new fuel source is found, that doesn't exist now, we're going to use it all.

And suffer the consequences.

You are sadly probably 100% correct. We are not the smartest creature to dominate the foodchain.

It's a shame that we are collectively too stupid and too lazy to do any heavy lifting because it's only going to get harder and harder the longer we debate it.

On the bright side we might actually off ourselves with a nuclear war before we suffer the worst of our climate meddling!

disciple Clint · Mar 7, 2022

Opdrey said:
How do you know climate change is nonsense? Are you a trained climate scientist?

Here's the fact of the matter: climate change is real, we know what is likely behind it and we know what we need to do. If you wish to throw your hands up and say "God's gonna do what He's gonna do", that's fine. If someone gave me a gift I don't think I'd tear it up in front of them and say "Thanks, now give me something better."

But that is exactly what this sounds like to me.

So just stay out of the way while the rest of us attempt to take some responsibility for our actions and be a good steward of this great gift.

you need to calm down and try not to create problems with your overly zealous attitude. Yes there is climate change but it is natural it has happened before many times over the lifetime of the earth, it is nothing to get all in a chicken little fuss about. Read some of the many scientists who see this as nothing but natural activity. Relax and trust God, the world will end when He wants it to and not before.

Opdrey · Mar 7, 2022

disciple Clint said:
you need to calm down and try not to create problems with your overly zealous attitude. Yes there is climate change but it is natural it has happened before many times over the lifetime of the earth

How do you know it has happened naturally over the earth's history?

I'll tell you: because of the research by the very same people who say that today's warming cannot be accounted for fully by the natural systems and cycles and that the only thing that helps make the data match up is if we include human factors.

So you know all about the earth's climate from the same people who are telling you humans are having a measurable and negative impact on climate today.

, it is nothing to get all in a chicken little fuss about. Read some of the many scientists

I've read far more of the science than you have. That's the benefit of a graduate degree in geology.

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