AGW, true? or not? (first thread didn't work)

[Greatcloud]

I made a mistake I meant up until 75 the plateau begins there. When the sun begens to bake the left side of the bell curve. We are on the right side of the bell curve now.

 

[Chalnoth]

I made a mistake I meant up until 75 the plateau begins there. When the sun begens to bake the left side of the bell curve. We are on the right side of the bell curve now.

Hahaha, riiiight. And how do you explain how at around 1987 the total solar irradiance dropped significantly, but all that happened to the global temperatures is they stopped their increase temporarily, then kept right on rising?

 

[MorkandMindy]

OK, I'm convinced, I last looked at the GW data four years ago on a dial up modem and without the words of Chalnoth to explain it.

So AGW is happening,

but it isn't going to lead to a Venus type runaway is it? Even going all the way back to the dinosaur era would be unlikely since the sun is giving out less than back then isn't it?

 

[MorkandMindy]

It could be argued AGW itself has as many pros as cons, and I'd be inclined to agree except I really don't like the motive behind people who say such things, it usually goes something like: therefore we can just use as much oil as we like.

Agriculture moves a few hundred miles away from the Equator over the course of a some decades. More of Canada and Siberia become arable, but less of Africa.

Rising Ocean levels is overall perhaps a bigger problem.

The anti AGW lobby has claimed since ocean levels have been rising 1,000 years it can't possibly be due to man. Well they don't live over here. Loads of CO2 was being given off by draining marshes back then.

 

[Chalnoth]

OK, I'm convinced, I last looked at the GW data four years ago on a dial up modem and without the words of Chalnoth to explain it.

So AGW is happening,

but it isn't going to lead to a Venus type runaway is it? Even going all the way back to the dinosaur era would be unlikely since the sun is giving out less than back then isn't it?

I sincerely doubt it. Remember that Venus is not only closer to the Sun, but also has a much thicker atmosphere that is almost entirely CO2. Only a small fraction of our own atmosphere is CO2, and there just doesn't appear to be a physical process capable of converting most of it to CO2.

No, I don't think it possible that global warming can make our planet uninhabitable. But it can make things very difficult for human civilization. It won't end human civilization by itself, but it will cause problems just by shifting climates around the world. For example, some areas will get more rain (causing flooding). Other areas will get less (causing droughts). Seasonal temperatures will change, adjusting what crops can grow where.

While in principle the changes aren't necessarily bad, the fact that there are going to be changes makes things very difficult for civilization that thrives on stability.

 

[MorkandMindy]

The very wealthy owners of oil companies control much of the media
and thereby an awful lot of what people believe,
and feed people reasons against global warming in terms they can't understand.

so I usually skip around the whole issue and say:

'Ignoring global warming, would you be happy to use up all the oil within the next 30 years?



30 years is a long time? Not really, it is like 1978 to now. Imagine we have just run out of oil.

 

[Chalnoth]

Right, that's another issue. Global warming is only really important when we think about things like whether or not we should make use of all of our coal reserves, or go for shale oil (if that's even possible). The amount of CO2 that would be released if we completely depleted those reserves could cause global warming to become much, much nastier.

 

[MorkandMindy]

The red necks of Iowa aren't going to care about rising ocean levels and they aren't going to care much about glow ball warming (just turn up the air conditioning) either.
And they sure don't care about a bunch of people in Bangladesh going underwater.

So I focus on something they might have some interest in: running out of oil.