From the natural point of view, I could not agree more. If were were running Ukraine, I would have reinforced the borders back in 2014. I would have told Putin to back off or I would attack first. Israel knows about preemptive strikes and it's one of the reasons they still exist.
The cycle of war and disarmament is as old as time and has not served Europe well. The idea of bringing Russia into the democratic fold has failed. Anyone who studied and listened to Putin knew that it was only a matter of time before he went to war.
Australia faces a similar situation with China. At least our current federal government acknowledges this. We should be arming ourselves with nukes, but that will not happen.
From a spiritual point of view, the rise of China is the result of spiritual decay in the Western church. I remember reading prophecies in the early 90's that Russia would open up but then close off again. I wish I could remember who said that. They were spot on.
If we want to look deeper here and ask what God is doing with this conflict then there are a number of themes that strike me. I apologize in advance for waffling but I wanted to use this opportunity to write out my thoughts.
1) Yes, war and peace are cyclical. Times of war demand purity and discipline and indeed respect for authority that is often missing in times of peace where the people prosper but can become decadent and deceived by all sorts of weird ideologies. War burns away the dross but leaves people and countries damaged. Europe after 75 years of peace had lost a little of its edge was more interested in making trades than life and death issues or questions of right and wrong. It was assuming that things would occur much as they always do and had lost any sense of catastrophe. As a result, the granaries and gas containers are empty when they should be full. The last three years have been a time of shaking by plague, war, and now the possibility of famine. Europe has been shocked out of its bubbles and back to a reality that most of the rest of the world experience daily. War is always a time when we are reminded of our own relative weakness and of the need for prayer.
2) You could regard Russia and Ukraine as brothers. Family disputes are the worst and conjure the deepest and darkest emotions. These conflicts can also evoke the deepest and most searching changes and expose strengths and weaknesses. Russia has learned (and not for the first time) that it is not an invincible military power than can just do as it wishes vis a vis its neighbors. If it repents of being a bully as a result of this then that will benefit all the countries along its borders. Europe has learned to be mindful of the wolves at its gate and that its lax attitude to military spending over the last 30 years was irresponsible. Germany has been awoken from a guilty slumber to realize that it has no reason to apologize for being strong if that strength is used to protect the weak rather than lord it over them.
3) Ukraine has chosen a European not a Russian identity. It has chosen freedom over history and wants a new way forward with the West. This choice is demonstrated in its resistance to Russia, in the choice of direction of its refugees, and their experience of Western aid and in its constitution. Maybe this war and its aftermath have been the necessary shock to smooth its path to European membership. Maybe now European standards can be applied vis a vis corruption, economy, a cleaner environment, green energy independence, and high-quality food production. With the rebuilding of the German military maybe Europe can become a secure place where Ukraine can find a home and prosper in peace and without fear of its powerful neighbor.
4) This might be one of the last great fossil fuel wars. It is funded by fossil fuels, it uses Europe's dependence on them to lever advantage and it seeks to annex territories rich in fossil fuels in the Donbas and maybe with control of the coast in the Black Sea also. The effect of this war is to inspire and hasten the green revolution going on in Europe. We are now focused on reducing our dependence on fuels that pollute, from toxic suppliers who prefer autocracy to democracy.
5) China is watching Russia's ambition to reintegrate 'lost provinces' with some interest. It must see that the desire for independence of a people is a factor they must consider vis a vis Taiwan. If they cannot take the island quickly then they may lose it in the guerilla war that follows. But this might make their final bid for Taiwan more dangerous for being better planned than the Russian invasion was especially in the area of logistics, communications, and precision targeting.
6) That Zelensky, a Jew, from a country in which Jews were slaughtered by Germans, is appealing now for German support against Russia is a sign of how the wheel has turned. He calls from a position of weakness, though strong defiance, for a stronger Germany and Europe that will save him not destroy him. He calls through the red tape and entry procedures that Europe has used as a barrier against his country this last decade for help. Europe seems now more inclined to give that to him and there is a clear affinity with Ukrainians as a result of this conflict.
7) Putin may well survive this and especially if he secures at least some territorial concessions as a result of this. But his vision of a Russian Empire has now been tested by fire and found wanting. It was defeated by the desire for freedom that he did not factor into it. He bought into the totalitarian logic of friends like Xi Jing Ping and memories of Soviet and Tsarist times to believe this was the way forward. He used the church as an instrument of power never understanding its true transforming value for Russia. His vision was one of power rather than of quality and blessing. He wanted this dream for himself not for God or indeed Russia's true interest in God. But the vision itself, minus the territorial ambition is not all wrong. Maybe it can be adapted to place the church at the center of Russian society but not as a tool of the state but rather as the presence of the people of God.
