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Can devils make peace? - Iran peace talks

eclipsenow

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Mossadegh was overthrown by the shah and the Iranian people in 1956 when he tried to undemocratically impose a dictatorship. You need to read up on that. His overthrow is extensively used by Russia, China and the Muslim world to discredit the USA and UK for the involvement of CIA/Mi6 in that but fact is it was the best way forward at the time as even the mullahs agreed.
I'm sorry you feel that way - as you've been group-thinked into historical revisionism from a certain far-right 'fake news' point of view.
The reality is Britain did not like Iran nationalising their OWN oil - oil the British thought belonged to the British.
So they got the Americans and world community to throw Iran into economic turmoil by boycotting Iranian oil.
The thing escalated until Mossadegh was taking desperate measures to keep the nation under control against the outside pressure.

It's sort of argument (with an important difference!) that Trump supporters use to justify HIS harsh actions. "It's an emergency, the refugees are a threat to national security and our democracy, they're eating the dogs, etc etc etc so the President is JUSTIFIED in getting the National Guard involved, etc." Just wait until the Mid-Terms. I have educated friends who think Trump will declare an emergency then, declare them fraudulent, and get the Guard involved, etc. Or somehow work ICE into the mix.

But there's a difference. While Trump massively exaggerates and sometimes outright LIES about the "emergencies" America is facing (like Portland being a warzone, etc) - the Iranian economy WAS under significant attack by the global sanctions.

So yes - Mosaddegh's consolidation of power was unconstitutional.
It was an emergency, and the country had only been in that state for a few months.
It's not like they had been a dictatorial state for generations as they have now! Who is to say WHAT would have happened if the outside world had left them alone and let their economy recover? The courts may have yet prevailed, and internal forces restored democratic rule.

But we will NEVER KNOW will we?
Because British and American oil interests were more pressing.
The country was starting to collapse due to VERY REAL outside pressure, and so Mosaddegh did his thing - and then MI6 and the CIA felt entirely justified to do their thang! The Shah took over, the Iranians hated the Shah, and the rest - as they say - is history.

From the Wiki:

On 19 August 1953, Prime Minister of Iran Mohammad Mosaddegh was overthrown in a coup d'état that strengthened the rule of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran. In the months preceding the coup, Mosaddegh had consolidated power by orchestrating an unconstitutional referendum to dissolve parliament that was widely described as fraudulent, and he later refused to step down after the Shah exercised his constitutional authority to dismiss him as prime minister. It was instigated by the United Kingdom (MI6), under the name Operation Boot[5][6][7][8] and the United States (CIA), under the name TP-AJAX Project[9] or Operation Ajax. A key motive was to protect British oil interests in Iran after Mosaddegh nationalized the country's oil industry.[10][11][12]
Mosaddegh had sought to audit the documents of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (AIOC), a British corporation (now part of BP), to verify that AIOC was paying the contracted royalties to Iran, and to limit their control over Iranian oil reserves.[13] Upon the AIOC's refusal to cooperate with the Iranian government, the parliament (Majlis) voted to nationalize Iran's oil industry and to expel foreign corporate representatives from the country.[14][15][16] After this vote, Britain instigated a worldwide boycott of Iranian oil to pressure Iran economically.[17] Initially, Britain mobilized its military to seize control of the British-built Abadan oil refinery, then the world's largest, but Prime Minister Clement Attlee opted instead to tighten the economic boycott[18] while using agents to undermine Mosaddegh's government.[19]: 3  Judging Mosaddegh to be unamenable and fearing the growing influence of the communist Tudeh, UK prime minister Winston Churchill decided in early 1953 to solicit the Eisenhower administration and overthrow Iran's government. The preceding Truman administration had opposed a coup, fearing the precedent that Central Intelligence Agency involvement would set,[19]: 3  and the U.S. government had been considering unilateral action (without UK support) to assist the Mosaddegh government as late as 1952.[20][21][22] British intelligence and the UK government's solicitations to the US were instrumental in initiating and planning the coup.

Meanwhile Trump continues to declare wars without consulting Congress. Are you happy that Trump can grab war-time emergency powers any time he declares a war or emergency? Are you happy that from a centuries perspective, someone as unwell as Trump - with hundreds of psychiatrists declaring he has NPD - has access to more Presidential powers than any President before him?

How close to the fall of the Republic do we have to be for the Republican party steps in and says "Not in OUR name!"
 
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eclipsenow

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Can the IRG be precision bombed into fragmenting?​


From previous descriptions of this huge structure, I had the impression that the IRG would not be defeated by a mere bombing campaign - that it would take hundreds of thousands of boots on the ground.

But then I heard a strategic analyst suggest the IRG was already showing signs of internal dysfunction - and might even collapse if America keeps targeting the leaders? That they are already having trouble with internal comms and power dynamics and could be prone to a popular revolution against the IRG, if America just keeps targeting the new leaders of different parts of the IRG structure.

Anyone else read the same by credible analysts?​


(Please don't quote a FOX propaganda host parroting how wonderful everything Trump does - not interested!)
 
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rambot

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"Can Devils Make Peace?" asks a member of the most conflict happy nation on the planet; whose military spending totals the next 6 nations.....

where we have a thread calling for the destruction of a country.

Yeah boy...those Iranians sure are violent.
 
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FireDragon76

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The analysis I've been hearing is that Iran is really run by the revolutionary guard. Yes, clerics are making ruling oppressing peope. But the real power is the Guard. It has been preparing for this kind of war for a long time. One story says they have 4 levels of backup in case someone is killed, down to the level of village mayors. The Guard is widely enough disbursed that they can't be decapitated.

Power is distributed in the Iranian government. The Supreme Leader is more like the Supreme Court, and in a limited sense, the President, but he doesn't govern all of the countries policies. The Supreme Leader does have his own private army loyal to him, the Iranian Revolutionary Corps Guard, and they have a certain amount of veto power over things that happen in Iran than endanger the security of the regime.

Irans defense strategy is mosaic and decentralized. They've set up their military for a long, protracted, defensive war. There's no centralized leadership that the US could destroy to end the war.
 
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eclipsenow

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I heard the Australian ABC interview a geopolitical expert that thought there might be signs that the IRG is not functioning as efficiently as it should, and might actually shatter if the USA keeps targeting leaders. I had heard that a general rule established from WW2 is that you cannot bomb a people into submission (unless you get a bit Hiroshima!). I'm reconsidering.

Yes - Hitler kept a tight hold over Germany.

BUT - what if the west had targeted Hitler, then the next guy, then the next guy? Maybe the NAZI regime would have fractured and come to their senses? But that was a secular cult, not a religious system like the Shia theocracy. That is an enormous sociological variable!

I still need to see the evidence that the IRG is fracturing.
 
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FireDragon76

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I heard the Australian ABC interview a geopolitical expert that thought there might be signs that the IRG is not functioning as efficiently as it should, and might actually shatter if the USA keeps targeting leaders. I had heard that a general rule established from WW2 is that you cannot bomb a people into submission (unless you get a bit Hiroshima!). I'm reconsidering.

Yes - Hitler kept a tight hold over Germany.

BUT - what if the west had targeted Hitler, then the next guy, then the next guy? Maybe the NAZI regime would have fractured and come to their senses? But that was a secular cult, not a religious system like the Shia theocracy. That is an enormous sociological variable!

I still need to see the evidence that the IRG is fracturing.

Nazis effectively had a religious system, one that appropriated the remains of the Volkskirche, most of whom were more than willing. Nazi troops had "Gott mit Uns" on their belts, after all.
 
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