Dismantling the Forestry Service

Maria Billingsley · Apr 10, 2026

Landon Caeli said:
Im not getting defensive, I'm being passionate about something that means something to me. There's a difference.

My problem is not with you, but with the sources that I don't believe. I cannot believe that nobody wants to be a carpenter, but they're willing to do other trades - it doesn't make any sense. Carpenters can make really good money in California, from 50 up to 100 dollars an hour.

Something just isn't making sense, and that bothers me.

Measure twice cut once.

It requires certain skills and a gift to be a talented carpenter. They build the bones and if those bones are in any way inaccurate the entire job can be compromised.

So let's get this straight, ( no pun intended), not too many people are cut out for this line of work ( no pun intended).

rambot · Apr 10, 2026

Landon Caeli said:
It seems like the price of lumber fluctuates a lot... That, in itself, might be a deterrent for builders, in a shaky economy.

I wonder if increasing domestic production could stabilize prices enough for builders to feel more confident, financially, in starting new projects.

I'm pretty sure those sky rocketting and insane prices you see, are usually tied to forces outside a typical market. For eg: Undoubtedly the 1400$ (if that's accurate) would have occurred during COVID shutdown times (atypical).
Lumber Prices (1972-2026)
If you ignore the COVID affect, you'd see the price of lumber is probably....
If you look at the above linked graph, you can see that Trump's tarrif's increased the cost of lumber by about 70$ (14%ish).

Since 2023 though, the price of lumber has been fairly stable (within a 100$ swing anyways....)

Landon Caeli · Apr 10, 2026

Well, it seems we all have our theories on housing costs / shortages, related to lumber or not. I'm willing to revisit here later, to see how things have progressed, after Trump's changes are made permanent. Hopefully they are "permanent" long enough to measure their effectiveness, or not. Then we can see where it led, and hopefully learn.

Hey, that's better than sitting on our hands and doing nothing at all - at least we're trying something. That's what were supposed to do.

Landon Caeli · Apr 10, 2026

rambot said:
I apologize.
I do see where your numbers come from.

What is strange is when I bring up a stock ticker, it is not showing that number (nor is it showing going near there).

And what's weird? This is what google AI is telling me right now:

As of early 2026, framing lumber prices in the USA have moderated from previous peaks, settling around $370–$596 per 1,000 board feet. Retail prices for common 2x4x8' studs typically cost around $2.50–$5.20 per board, while 2x6x12' boards generally range from $7–$8. Prices vary based on region and retailer.
Trading Economics +3
Common Framing Lumber Prices (Retail Examples)

2x4x8' Studs: $2.50 – $5.17

2x6x12' Boards: $7.00 – $7.20

2x8x16' Boards: ~$15.12

2x10x16' Boards: ~$18.26

7/16" OSB Sheathing: $24 – $38 per 4x8' sheet

Market Trends and Factors

Price Volatility: Lumber futures have dropped significantly from over $1,400 in 2021 to below $600 by early 2026.

Regional Demand: Slowdowns in single-family housing starts have eased upward pressure on prices.

Purchasing Strategy: Buying in bulk (e.g., 35+ pieces) can reduce prices at major retailers.

Material Costs: Framing lumber typically costs $0.58–$0.78 per linear foot.

Final Project Costs: The total cost for framing, including labor, generally ranges from $7–$16 per square foot.
Trading Economics +4

For the most accurate pricing, it is recommended to get quotes from local suppliers, as national averages can fluctuate rapidly
Here it says Futures went up to 1400$ !?!

Essentially what this comes down to is the exact reason why you cannot rely SOLELY on quoting AI.

As promised... The original source of the information:

The Lumber Market In 2026: A Valuation Perspective On New And Reclaimed Lumber - Expert Deconstruction Appraisals & IRS Qualified Services The Lumber Market In 2026: A Valuation Perspective On New And Reclaimed Lumber - Expert Deconstruction Appraisals & IRS Qualified Services

Ellesmere · Apr 13, 2026

Landon Caeli said:
I think it's a brilliant idea to increase lumber production, to decrease home building costs. You do realize that the United States has a severe hone supply problem, right?

...And to say that Trump is "dismantling the forestry service" by moving it's headquarters to Utah, is dishonest. But I wouldn't expect anything else, because whatever Trump does is always wrong, no matter what, according to most on the left.

Restricting Canadian lumber, combined with U.S. tariffs near 35% as of April 2026, significantly increases US housing costs, adding thousands to home prices and reducing affordability. Estimates indicate tariffs and supply constraints could increase costs by up to $20,000 per home, with analysts suggesting this could price out over 1.4 million potential American homebuyers."

In the past, Canada has accounted for 25% of American lumber consumption - the U.S. construction industry depends on Canadian spruce, pine, and fir, used for framing which are preferred over US domestic options

In fact some American building codes specify that only Canadian lumber be used - lumber from northern British Columbia and Alberta is considered more desirable for wood framing!

They (US homebuilders) like it (Canadian softwood lumber) particularly for framing walls because Canadian spruce, pine and fir is lighter, stronger and tighter-grained than the southern yellow pine lumber that is common in America, but has a reputation for warping.
-- Kurt Niquidet, President of the B.C. Lumber Trade Council

Japan has emerged as the premium, high-value market for Canadian forestry products - in response to American tariffs, Japan and China are currently in the process replacing the US as the anchor market for Canadian timber!

Meanwhile. for a variety of reasons, the US lacks the infrastructure, including milling capacity, to compensate for the redirection of Canadian lumber to Far East markets - in response to Trump's tariffs based on his assertions that the US had no need for Canadian lumber,

Having secured alternate markets, Canadian softwood is currently making the transition to these more stable and lucrative offshore markets - it will no longer serve as a staple for framing in the American housing market where demand increasingly exceeds supply!

The net result of US tariffs combined with alternate markets has already had an impact where the demand for Canadian softwood lumber for framing remains constant while the supply is being reduced - the laws of economics dictate that the result of this imbalance is a steadily increase in prices competing for a limited reserve!

These cost increases were entirely predictable as the result of policies intended to reduce the supply of Canadian softwood lumber, the product of choice when it comes to framing houses!

Apparently this eventuality was never anticipated by the White House when federal tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber were introduced - while the stated government intentions were to make housing more affordable, they are actually responsible for dramatic increases in costs!

https://www.google.com/seq=us+housing+costs+without+canadian+lumber&rlz=1CABBMB_enCA1030CA1030&oq=us+housing+costs+without+canadian+lumber&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCjMyNzU5ajBqMTWoAgiwAgE&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Landon Caeli · Apr 13, 2026

Ellesmere said:
View attachment 378507

Restricting Canadian lumber, combined with U.S. tariffs near 35% as of April 2026, significantly increases US housing costs, adding thousands to home prices and reducing affordability. Estimates indicate tariffs and supply constraints could increase costs by up to $20,000 per home, with analysts suggesting this could price out over 1.4 million potential American homebuyers."

In the past, Canada has accounted for 25% of American lumber consumption - the U.S. construction industry depends on Canadian spruce, pine, and fir, used for framing which are preferred over US domestic options

In fact some American building codes specify that only Canadian lumber be used - lumber from northern British Columbia and Alberta is considered more desirable for wood framing!

They (US homebuilders) like it (Canadian softwood lumber) particularly for framing walls because Canadian spruce, pine and fir is lighter, stronger and tighter-grained than the southern yellow pine lumber that is common in America, but has a reputation for warping.
-- Kurt Niquidet, President of the B.C. Lumber Trade Council

Japan has emerged as the premium, high-value market for Canadian forestry products - in response to American tariffs, Japan and China are currently in the process replacing the US as the anchor market for Canadian timber!

Meanwhile. for a variety of reasons, the US lacks the infrastructure, including milling capacity, to compensate for the redirection of Canadian lumber to Far East markets - in response to Trump's tariffs based on his assertions that the US had no need for Canadian lumber,

Having secured alternate markets, Canadian softwood is currently making the transition to these more stable and lucrative offshore markets - it will no longer serve as a staple for framing in the American housing market where demand increasingly exceeds supply!

The net result of US tariffs combined with alternate markets has already had an impact where the demand for Canadian softwood lumber for framing remains constant while the supply is being reduced - the laws of economics dictate that the result of this imbalance is a steadily increase in prices competing for a limited reserve!

These cost increases were entirely predictable as the result of policies intended to reduce the supply of Canadian softwood lumber, the product of choice when it comes to framing houses!

Apparently this eventuality was never anticipated by the White House when federal tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber were introduced - while the stated government intentions were to make housing more affordable, they are actually responsible for dramatic increases in costs!

View attachment 378506

https://www.google.com/seq=us+housing+costs+without+canadian+lumber&rlz=1CABBMB_enCA1030CA1030&oq=us+housing+costs+without+canadian+lumber&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCjMyNzU5ajBqMTWoAgiwAgE&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

The United States has long had a production problem. The whole problem with California for example, revolves around not producing enough things, and so, we have no middle class, and those who would be middle class, are living on the streets homeless.

...We need to get back to producing stuff again for the overall health of the country.

rambot · Apr 13, 2026

Landon Caeli said:
The United States has long had a production problem. The whole problem with California for example, revolves around not producing enough things, and so, we have no middle class, and those who would be middle class, are living on the streets homeless.

...We need to get back to producing stuff again for the overall health of the country.

Bur you also need to understand that some of the things you produce aren't as good as what others produce and so you need some things from other people.

And then You need thr wisdom ro discern the difference.

CRAZY_CAT_WOMAN · Apr 13, 2026

Landon Caeli said:
The United States has long had a production problem. The whole problem with California for example, revolves around not producing enough things, and so, we have no middle class, and those who would be middle class, are living on the streets homeless.

...We need to get back to producing stuff again for the overall health of the country.

I live in California and I'm surrended by middle class.

Landon Caeli · Apr 13, 2026

CRAZY_CAT_WOMAN said:
I live in California and I'm surrended by middle class.

I live in California, and there is no middle class.

...People in California don't even know what middle class looks like. But I wasn't raised here, so I do... What people think is "rich" in California, is actually basic middle class everywhere else.

CRAZY_CAT_WOMAN · Apr 14, 2026

Landon Caeli said:
I live in California, and there is no middle class.

...People in California don't even know what middle class looks like. But I wasn't raised here, so I do... What people think is "rich" in California, is actually basic middle class everywhere else.

There're poor, middle and rich class and homeless people. And there are plenty of programs to help the homeless and poor. I have no idea, where you get your ideas from. Rich people in California, isn't middle class.

Landon Caeli · Apr 14, 2026

CRAZY_CAT_WOMAN said:
There're poor, middle and rich class and homeless people. And there are plenty of programs to help the homeless and poor. I have no idea, where you get your ideas from. Rich people in California, isn't middle class.

Actual facts say otherwise. Californians just have no idea how the rest of the country lives.

California’s middle class is in decline, despite the state’s immense wealth - CalMatters California’s middle class is in decline, despite the state’s immense wealth

What counts as middle class in 2024 California? The shrinking numbers https://share.google/wjICwOqAvPmUnIuhe

California's Middle Class Declines as Low and High Incomes Surge, Study Shows | KQED California's Middle Class Declines as Low and High Incomes Surge, Study Shows | KQED

FireDragon76 · Apr 14, 2026

Landon Caeli said:
I think it's a brilliant idea to increase lumber production, to decrease home building costs. You do realize that the United States has a severe hone supply problem, right?

...And to say that Trump is "dismantling the forestry service" by moving it's headquarters to Utah, is dishonest. But I wouldn't expect anything else, because whatever Trump does is always wrong, no matter what, according to most on the left.

The problems with home supply aren't due to lumber shortages, they are due to zoning restrictions in places people actually want to live, which is usually in or near large cities with diverse employment opportunities.

Landon Caeli · Apr 14, 2026

FireDragon76 said:
The problems with home supply aren't due to lumber shortages, they are due to zoning restrictions in places people actually want to live, which is usually in or near large cities with diverse employment opportunities.

I think there's a mountain of problems holding California down. Not just one thing.

Another problem is ignoring the well being of the middle class, and focusing solely on the poor.

FireDragon76 · Apr 14, 2026

Landon Caeli said:
I think there's a mountain of problems holding California down. Not just one thing.

Another problem is ignoring the well being of the middle class, and focusing solely on the poor.

The segment of the US population that are "middle class" isn't close to the majority. According to the United Way, almost half of American households are essentially working poor. Many Americans self-identify as "middle class", but it doesn't reflect their actual financial situation, it reflects self-perception more than reality, and the stigma associated with poverty in the US.

The actual middle class in the US is slightly less than a quarter of households.

So it make sense to focus on poverty alleviation programs in terms of government investment and planning, simply because there are more poor people, and the middle class typically need less help. They already benefit from government programs subsidizing highways and home loans, for instance.

Landon Caeli · Apr 14, 2026

FireDragon76 said:
The segment of the US population that are "middle class" isn't close to the majority. According to the United Way, almost half of American households are essentially working poor. Many Americans self-identify as "middle class", but it doesn't reflect their actual financial situation, it reflects self-perception more than reality, and the stigma associated with poverty in the US.

The actual middle class in the US is slightly less than a quarter of households.

So it make sense to focus on poverty alleviation programs in terms of government investment and planning, simply because there are more poor people, and the middle class typically need less help. They already benefit from government programs subsidizing highways and home loans, for instance.

Bandaids on broken arms. Why wouldn't you instead focus on making it easier for people to *become* middle class, over time? Policies can be put into place to nurture suchba shift, but it will take time. Why can't we focus on both the poor, and the middle class at the same time, as a way of securing the future of this country?

The way to do that, is to start producing lumber, and other products. Yet 86% of posters here on CF don't seem to care about the things I'm talking about, which is scary and dangerous.

Danthemailman · Apr 22, 2026

Homeownership decline is hitting every age group, new data shows | Fox Business Housing crisis hits all ages as homeownership declines nationwide

rambot · Apr 22, 2026

Danthemailman said:
Homeownership decline is hitting every age group, new data shows | Fox Business Housing crisis hits all ages as homeownership declines nationwide

Yes.
Corporations are buying up property.

Your grandchildren may never be able to own their home.

iluvatar5150 · Apr 22, 2026

rambot said:
Yes.
Corporations are buying up property.

Your grandchildren may never be able to own their home.

Outside of a couple municipalities, corporate investments are small enough to be irrelevant.

rambot · Apr 22, 2026

iluvatar5150 said:
Outside of a couple municipalities, corporate investments are small enough to be irrelevant.

Really? Currently they're sitting at 9%.

They are gunning for 40% by 2030...

iluvatar5150 · Apr 22, 2026

rambot said:
Really? Currently they're sitting at 9%.

They are gunning for 40% by 2030...

That's market share of investor-owned properties, not of all properties. And that 9% threshold is for firms with >10 houses, which is basically a small, privately-held regional property management company. The firms with >=1000 houses have 2% of the market share.

I don't see the numbers for total ownership of private vs investors, but 2Q25 sales numbers had investors of all sizes making 33% of the home purchases. 9% of that would be about 3% of the total.

Small Investors Dominate The Single-Family Home Market

Real estate investors purchased 33% of single-family homes sold in the second quarter of 2025, the highest share in five years, according to new data from BatchData, a real estate data platform. But the real story lies in who is doing the buying.

nationalmortgageprofessional.com

Dismantling the Forestry Service

Is dismantling the Forestry Service right now a good idea?

I think it's a bad idea at virtually anytime

I I think dismantling the Forestry Service is a Good at idea happenning at

Somewhere in between

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