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US Notches One of Its Biggest Annual Trade Gaps Since 1960; Trade deficits for goods hits a record high.

essentialsaltes

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[The trade deficit in 2024 was $903.5 billion, so the 2025 figure represents a reduction of 0.2% and is third worst ever.]

The trade data were notably volatile in 2025 from month to month as US importers reacted to a persistent drumbeat of tariff announcements from President Donald Trump. Gold and pharmaceutical imports were particularly choppy as companies raced to beat higher duties.

By country, the shortfall with China narrowed sharply — reaching about $202 billion, the smallest in more than 20 years and a reflection of the higher tariffs Trump put on Chinese imports. Trade has instead been largely rerouted through other countries like Mexico and Vietnam, where deficits widened to respective records.

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And the U.S. deficit in the trade of goods widened 2% to a record $1.24 trillion last year as American companies boosted imports of computer chips and other tech goods from Taiwan to support massive investments in artificial intelligence.

The goods gap with Taiwan doubled to $147 billion and shot up 44%, to $178 billion, with Vietnam.
 
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Tuur

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[The trade deficit in 2024 was $903.5 billion, so the 2025 figure represents a reduction of 0.2% and is third worst ever.]

The trade data were notably volatile in 2025 from month to month as US importers reacted to a persistent drumbeat of tariff announcements from President Donald Trump. Gold and pharmaceutical imports were particularly choppy as companies raced to beat higher duties.

By country, the shortfall with China narrowed sharply — reaching about $202 billion, the smallest in more than 20 years and a reflection of the higher tariffs Trump put on Chinese imports. Trade has instead been largely rerouted through other countries like Mexico and Vietnam, where deficits widened to respective records.

Link#2:

And the U.S. deficit in the trade of goods widened 2% to a record $1.24 trillion last year as American companies boosted imports of computer chips and other tech goods from Taiwan to support massive investments in artificial intelligence.

The goods gap with Taiwan doubled to $147 billion and shot up 44%, to $178 billion, with Vietnam.
Let's look at it:

trad1225-chart.png
 
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essentialsaltes

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Let's look at it:

trad1225-chart.png
Right, Trump's tariff talk drove people to overstock items, and then they didn't have to buy them when the tariffs were enacted on Liberation Day. But the stock will run out. Will US producers have found US suppliers for those items? We'll find out soon, but the chip business is not going to be solved in a year or two.
 
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Richard T

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To be fair, it takes America a long time to reshore manufacturing. Especially when the Supreme Court has not weighed in one whether the tariffs were legal or not. The good news is that the U.S. dependence on China is waning. The full effects of the dollars weakness and tariffs will start to help the deficit issues in the long run assuming the tariffs are legal and lasting. (though I hope most are not).
 
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Pommer

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Re: SCOTUS will punt.
The High Court is not going to want to weigh in on a squabble betwixt the other Two Branches, if it can reasonably avoid it.
If Congress, by its inaction cedes it’s “power of the purse” (for a time, without actually passing a Laws saying “Here, Mr President, the Congress allows you to set tariffs in our stead, for [certain but not unlimited time])”, then the Court won’t want to interfere with “what’s working”. Trump wins. The system will have “worked”. Amazing, ain’t it?
 
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Richard T

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Re: SCOTUS will punt.
The High Court is not going to want to weigh in on a squabble betwixt the other Two Branches, if it can reasonably avoid it.
If Congress, by its inaction cedes it’s “power of the purse” (for a time, without actually passing a Laws saying “Here, Mr President, the Congress allows you to set tariffs in our stead, for [certain but not unlimited time])”, then the Court won’t want to interfere with “what’s working”. Trump wins. The system will have “worked”. Amazing, ain’t it?
Your basically saying Congress has to opt in to restrain the President. Sorry but the President is restrained by the Constitution. If Congress is derelict, the President should not have the power to take over and create a large tax increase through tariffs. Anyway, it will be interesting. Friday is often the day for court releases. So we might see a ruling later today.
 
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Pommer

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Your basically saying Congress has to opt in to restrain the President. Sorry but the President is restrained by the Constitution. If Congress is derelict, the President should not have the power to take over and create a large tax increase through tariffs. Anyway, it will be interesting. Friday is often the day for court releases. So we might see a ruling later today.
Well, I was w, wr…incorrect !
President Trump incorrectly applied the Law (granting a President of extraordinary authority over import/exports and tariffs).
Alito, Thomas and Kavanaugh thought everything was kosher, apparently.
 
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Richard T

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Well, I was w, wr…incorrect !
President Trump incorrectly applied the Law (granting a President of extraordinary authority over import/exports and tariffs).
Alito, Thomas and Kavanaugh thought everything was kosher, apparently.
You were not alone in thinking Trump would win this. The court is too political, you can never tell. But I'm glad the executive branch has limited powers. When you have deficits for over 50 years in a row what exactly is the emergency? Also to raise Canada's tariff on a personal whim? No emergency in that either. The sad part is all the wasted diplomacy. If Congress does not want to pass tariffs, why would a President even bother? But it justified keeping the tax cuts which is a pretty big win for Trump and the GOP at least for this term.
 
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hedrick

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You were not alone in thinking Trump would win this. The court is too political, you can never tell. But I'm glad the executive branch has limited powers. When you have deficits for over 50 years in a row what exactly is the emergency? Also to raise Canada's tariff on a personal whim? No emergency in that either. The sad part is all the wasted diplomacy. If Congress does not want to pass tariffs, why would a President even bother? But it justified keeping the tax cuts which is a pretty big win for Trump and the GOP at least for this term.
There are several laws giving the president discretion. He can just move to claiming national security interests, or unfair trading.
 
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Richard T

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There are several laws giving the president discretion. He can just move to claiming national security interests, or unfair trading.
Yes, Trump can keep the game going. Midterms are near though and I think maga momentum turned some time ago. It is starting to show up in the economy as well. Too bad there are no plans for what America really needs, to fix the budget, social security, higher ed, and medical costs.
 
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hedrick

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Yes, Trump can keep the game going. Midterms are near though and I think maga momentum turned some time ago. It is starting to show up in the economy as well. Too bad there are no plans for what America really needs, to fix the budget, social security, higher ed, and medical costs.
Yes.Neither party seems to have a plan. But at least we can get someone who won’t keep making things worse.
 
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Pommer

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You were not alone in thinking Trump would win this. The court is too political, you can never tell. But I'm glad the executive branch has limited powers. When you have deficits for over 50 years in a row what exactly is the emergency? Also to raise Canada's tariff on a personal whim? No emergency in that either. The sad part is all the wasted diplomacy. If Congress does not want to pass tariffs, why would a President even bother? But it justified keeping the tax cuts which is a pretty big win for Trump and the GOP at least for this term.
Trump knocks down stuff to rebuild better. (That’s the crux of his whole schtick), he’s political Knute Rockne and Vince Lombardi, no wonder they love him.
History will record him him as good as Hoover, who also preceded a progressive go-getter!
We’ll be in great shape by 2033.
 
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Pommer

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There are several laws giving the president discretion. He can just move to claiming national security interests, or unfair trading.
Yes, he’s got “moves” but there’s “strings” like 150 days limit before Congress has to weigh in, officially.
 
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Pommer

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Yes, Trump can keep the game going. Midterms are near though and I think maga momentum turned some time ago. It is starting to show up in the economy as well. Too bad there are no plans for what America really needs, to fix the budget, social security, higher ed, and medical costs.

Yes.Neither party seems to have a plan. But at least we can get someone who won’t keep making things worse.
All of this requires “governing”, which is not President Trump’s longsuit, he likes being boss, he “rules”.
 
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Richard T

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Trump knocks down stuff to rebuild better. (That’s the crux of his whole schtick), he’s political Knute Rockne and Vince Lombardi, no wonder they love him.
History will record him him as good as Hoover, who also preceded a progressive go-getter!
We’ll be in great shape by 2033.
Does he knock it down to rebuild better or just to find a way to work in a personal advantage? Even if I said rebuild better the focus is on helping those who assist and promote Trump.
 
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hedrick

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Yes, he’s got “moves” but there’s “strings” like 150 days limit before Congress has to weigh in, officially.
I assume at 150 days he will declare a different emergency. I don’t see Trump ever acknowledging that there are things he isn’t authorized to do.
 
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Aryeh Jay

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I assume at 150 days he will declare a different emergency. I don’t see Trump ever acknowledging that there are things he isn’t authorized to do.

I predict the Iran war will fit that bill.
 
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