US facing second measles surge this year as outbreak accelerates in South Carolina

probinson · Jan 5, 2026

durangodawood said:
Im not glossing over anything.

Sure you are. That's why you downplayed the reporting by saying you heard "maybe 10" reports. That's not indicative of the actual amount of reporting, but of your news reading habits.

durangodawood said:
I heard appx 10 reports. And that really should be enough of a sample to judge if the general tone of coverage is "apoplectic" or not.

durangodawood said:
Obviously vaccine policy is a huge topic right now. So I expect a lot of coverage of events that touch on the issue.

Right. All the more reason for reporting on it to not be over-the-top, disproportionate alarmism.

durangodawood said:
Just look at your own behavior here in this regard. You find it important.

Sure I do. So do you, apparently, as here you are talking about it.

durangodawood said:
And so you go on and on about vaccines while pretty much ignoring every other topic.

Yep. That's what I like to talk about on online. If you knew me and talked to me in person, you'd never likely never hear about it. Although to be more accurate, it' not just vaccines. It's the dishonesty of the public health agencies and the media reporting about it that I find problematic. This is why we have rapidly decreasing vaccine uptake, and it's only going to get worse.

durangodawood said:
Did you know we just deposed the leader of Venezuela?

Yes.

Did you know that's not the topic of this thread?

probinson · Jan 5, 2026

DaisyDay said:
Every report I've read that mentioned that the US is on track to lose its status of no endemic measles also made it clear that Canada had already lost its status.

To be fair, I have seen that somewhat as well. Although it's usually buried in the 15th paragraph of the article. The headline is always about the US outbreak, which is odd, since the Canadian outbreak is far worse.

DaisyDay said:
As for the imbalance in reporting, too often it's not just America First, but America Only. How many Americans can tell you who the Prime Minister of Canada is or even that they have one?

Sadly, the vast majority of people are ill-informed on a plethora of topics.

probinson · Jan 5, 2026

Let's look at flu vaccines to understand the strategies that the CDC feels are necessary to increase vaccine uptake. I encourage you to read the full presentation.

Screenshot 2026-01-05 at 12.21.45 PM.png

"Concern". "Alarm". "Dire outcomes". Predict that it will be the worst ever flu season. Sound familiar?

Screenshot 2026-01-05 at 12.23.21 PM.png

"Perception". Visible examples. As soon as a single child dies that might be remotely related to the flu, make sure it is emblazoned all over the media.

Screenshot 2026-01-05 at 12.24.57 PM.png

First note that the goal here is not to ensure people are healthy, but rather to "foster demand" for vaccination. To do so, they must create "concern, anxiety and worry".

Does this sound like a formula for building trust and a public health strategy for healthier people, or a propaganda campaign to sell more vaccines?

DaisyDay · Jan 5, 2026

probinson said:
Let's look at flu vaccines to understand the strategies that the CDC feels are necessary to increase vaccine uptake. I encourage you to read the full presentation.

View attachment 374994

"Concern". "Alarm". "Dire outcomes". Predict that it will be the worst ever flu season. Sound familiar?

View attachment 374995

"Perception". Visible examples. As soon as a single child dies that might be remotely related to the flu, make sure it is emblazoned all over the media.

View attachment 374996

First note that the goal here is not to ensure people are healthy, but rather to "foster demand" for vaccination. To do so, they must create "concern, anxiety and worry".

Does this sound like a formula for building trust and a public health strategy for healthier people, or a propaganda campaign to sell more vaccines?

Flu is serious and vaccines prevent complications and death. I am grateful they are available.

RFK JR is an anti-Cassandra.

probinson · Jan 5, 2026

DaisyDay said:
Flu is serious

Eh, not for the overwhelming majority of people.

DaisyDay said:
and vaccines prevent complications and death.

So the marketing and propaganda says.

OTOH, here's what the evidence says:

We found 52 clinical trials of over 80,000 adults. We were unable to determine the impact of bias on about 70% of the included studies due to insufficient reporting of details. Around 15% of the included studies were well designed and conducted. We focused on reporting of results from 25 studies that looked at inactivated vaccines. Injected influenza vaccines probably have a small protective effect against influenza and ILI (moderate-certainty evidence), as 71 people would need to be vaccinated to avoid one influenza case, and 29 would need to be vaccinated to avoid one case of ILI. Vaccination may have little or no appreciable effect on hospitalisations (low-certainty evidence) or number of working days lost.

Vaccines to prevent influenza in healthy adults | Cochrane

www.cochrane.org

Results Among 53402 employees, 43857 (82.1%) had received the influenza vaccine by the end of the study. Influenza occurred in 1079 (2.02%) during the study. The cumulative incidence of influenza was similar for the vaccinated and unvaccinated states early, but over the course of the study the cumulative incidence of influenza increased more rapidly among the vaccinated than the unvaccinated. In an analysis adjusted for age, sex, clinical nursing job, and employment location, the risk of influenza was significantly higher for the vaccinated compared to the unvaccinated state (HR, 1.27; 95% C.I., 1.07 – 1.51; P = 0.007), yielding a calculated vaccine effectiveness of −26.9% (95% C.I., −55.0 to −6.6%).

Effectiveness of the Influenza Vaccine During the 2024-2025 Respiratory Viral Season

Background The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the influenza vaccine during the 2024-2025 respiratory viral season. Methods Employees of Cleveland Clinic in employment in Ohio on October 1, 2024, were included. The cumulative incidence of influenza among those in the...

www.medrxiv.org

I find it very odd to be "grateful" for a vaccine that makes you 27% MORE LIKELY to be infected. But to each their own, I suppose.

ThatRobGuy · Jan 5, 2026

Stopped_lurking said:
There is something else going on in the US, see my post #25. Even if everybody stopped vaccinating at once, it wouldn't give that response in disease incidence.

If a large pocket of susceptible people already existed in an area, that could explain what you were seeing on the chart.

Keeping in mind, that when the number has an extremely low baseline, it doesn't take a big spike to look dramatic on the graph that's structured in that way.

Short of there being some sort of international importation that set off a big chain reaction, I'm guessing what you're seeing on that graph is simply a case of "chickens coming home to roost", where some communities had been rolling the dice for quite some time, and it finally caught up with them.

Keeping in mind, 2024 was a year of a "travel boom" of sorts. From what I'm reading, 2024 (particularly Q3 & Q4) had travel rates that were 30% above pre-pandemic levels. (after 3 prior years of travel stagnation)

Say it aint so · Jan 5, 2026

DaisyDay said:
Every report I've read that mentioned that the US is on track to lose its status of no endemic measles also made it clear that Canada had already lost its status.

As for the imbalance in reporting, too often it's not just America First, but America Only. How many Americans can tell you who the Prime Minister of Canada is or even that they have one?

Apparently Provinces in Canada are having the same antivax sentiment as we have in the States. New York Times:

Canada is on track to lose its place among the nations that have eliminated measles, as international health officials convene this week to review that designation, which experts call a measure of a country’s overall pandemic preparedness.
In October 2024, measles cases appeared, as happens in many countries. Since then, though, the virus has spread countrywide. Declining vaccination rates and increased skepticism of public health messaging since the Covid-19 pandemic have been factors, experts say.
But The New York Times found that at critical points, as measles was gaining new footholds in Canada, provincial politicians stopped public health officials from speaking out about the value of getting vaccinated. That tension between politics and health policy is playing out globally.
While Ontario is the province with the most cases, the western province of Alberta has reported an outsize number for its population — the highest concentration in the country.

Alberta’s top government doctor was stopped from speaking publicly about the problem, according to interviews. Emails obtained through a public records request show the doctor urging the government to ramp up its messaging weeks before the virus arrived.

CRAZY_CAT_WOMAN · Jan 5, 2026

Sadly people are choosing to put their kids and other kids lives in danger. RFK is no help and he's only making things worse.

Stopped_lurking · Jan 5, 2026

ThatRobGuy said:
If a large pocket of susceptible people already existed in an area, that could explain what you were seeing on the chart.

Keeping in mind, that when the number has an extremely low baseline, it doesn't take a big spike to look dramatic on the graph that's structured in that way.

Short of there being some sort of international importation that set off a big chain reaction, I'm guessing what you're seeing on that graph is simply a case of "chickens coming home to roost", where some communities had been rolling the dice for quite some time, and it finally caught up with them.

If this is true, it is caused by anti-vaxers and would be ameliorated by higher vaccine coverage. Higher vaccine coverage might even have been enough to stop endemic transmission. There are still some days left, let's hope the US can keep it's measles-free status.

ThatRobGuy said:
Keeping in mind, 2024 was a year of a "travel boom" of sorts. From what I'm reading, 2024 (particularly Q3 & Q4) had travel rates that were 30% above pre-pandemic levels. (after 3 prior years of travel stagnation)

ThatRobGuy · Jan 6, 2026

Stopped_lurking said:
If this is true, it is caused by anti-vaxers and would be ameliorated by higher vaccine coverage. Higher vaccine coverage might even have been enough to stop endemic transmission. There are still some days left, let's hope the US can keep it's measles-free status.

Another couple possibilities I had considered that would explain what your chart showed was
A) under-reporting and possibly even some intentional "non-reporting"
B) artificial limiting of exposure due to things being shuttered for covid

I'll start with B) first... Obviously in the years 2020-2022, there were fewer gatherings and therefore, fewer vectors of transmission...the same reason influenza cases dropped off a cliff during the time of the covid measures, but then came roaring back after things re-opened.

For A), per an article from CNN (citing MayoClinic)
Experts believe the number of deaths alone indicates that cases are deeply undercounted, as the measles fatality rate is typically up to 3 deaths per 1,000 cases (lower in areas with access to robust supportive care). However, three deaths were reported when the official outbreak count in Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Kansas stood at only 568 cases—a death rate that would be much higher than expected unless cases were significantly undercounted.

So it becomes on of those things where "You can sweep under the rug and try to hide it for a while...until you can't"

For the types of parents who are distrustful of the MMR vaccine, those are the same types of parents that likely won't be racing their kid off to the doctors office for a low-grade fever and rash provided it doesn't escalate beyond that. And the case never gets counted.

However, when the severe cases balloon up to a point where there's actually some hospitalizations and deaths, then that's when the public health experts come in and start looking and tracing, and that's when it can't be hidden anymore.

So if I had to place a wager, I'd say that in 2020/2021, the cases were low (or zero) for the same reason Flu cases dropped during that same time period, exposures were limited due to covid provisions, and limited exposures to other viruses as an "added perk".

And I'm betting there were already quite a few cases in the 2nd half of 2024 that just never got reported as anti-vaccine parents probably quietly kept their kids home and never told anyone, but when the spread reached a point in January 2025 where a few people actually died, that's when "dirty little secrets" can no longer be hidden, and public health experts got wind of the issue and started counting.

Stopped_lurking · Jan 6, 2026

ThatRobGuy said:
Another couple possibilities I had considered that would explain what your chart showed was
A) under-reporting and possibly even some intentional "non-reporting"
B) artificial limiting of exposure due to things being shuttered for covid

I'll start with B) first... Obviously in the years 2020-2022, there were fewer gatherings and therefore, fewer vectors of transmission...the same reason influenza cases dropped off a cliff during the time of the covid measures, but then came roaring back after things re-opened.

For A), per an article from CNN (citing MayoClinic)
Experts believe the number of deaths alone indicates that cases are deeply undercounted, as the measles fatality rate is typically up to 3 deaths per 1,000 cases (lower in areas with access to robust supportive care). However, three deaths were reported when the official outbreak count in Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Kansas stood at only 568 cases—a death rate that would be much higher than expected unless cases were significantly undercounted.

So it becomes on of those things where "You can sweep under the rug and try to hide it for a while...until you can't"

For the types of parents who are distrustful of the MMR vaccine, those are the same types of parents that likely won't be racing their kid off to the doctors office for a low-grade fever and rash provided it doesn't escalate beyond that. And the case never gets counted.

However, when the severe cases balloon up to a point where there's actually some hospitalizations and deaths, then that's when the public health experts come in and start looking and tracing, and that's when it can't be hidden anymore.

So if I had to place a wager, I'd say that in 2020/2021, the cases were low (or zero) for the same reason Flu cases dropped during that same time period, exposures were limited due to covid provisions, and limited exposures to other viruses as an "added perk".

And I'm betting there were already quite a few cases in the 2nd half of 2024 that just never got reported as anti-vaccine parents probably quietly kept their kids home and never told anyone, but when the spread reached a point in January 2025 where a few people actually died, that's when "dirty little secrets" can no longer be hidden, and public health experts got wind of the issue and started counting.

Perhaps but the number of cases are low all the way back to the early to mid-90s. Sweden have about twice the per capita incidence than the US had until 2024 and 2025, but still didn't have endemic transmission between 2016 and 2024 (it might have been one endemic case in 2024). I'm not certain though.

Hans Blaster · Jan 6, 2026

ThatRobGuy said:
Another couple possibilities I had considered that would explain what your chart showed was
A) under-reporting and possibly even some intentional "non-reporting"
B) artificial limiting of exposure due to things being shuttered for covid

I'll start with B) first... Obviously in the years 2020-2022, there were fewer gatherings and therefore, fewer vectors of transmission...the same reason influenza cases dropped off a cliff during the time of the covid measures, but then came roaring back after things re-opened.

For A), per an article from CNN (citing MayoClinic)
Experts believe the number of deaths alone indicates that cases are deeply undercounted, as the measles fatality rate is typically up to 3 deaths per 1,000 cases (lower in areas with access to robust supportive care). However, three deaths were reported when the official outbreak count in Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Kansas stood at only 568 cases—a death rate that would be much higher than expected unless cases were significantly undercounted.

So it becomes on of those things where "You can sweep under the rug and try to hide it for a while...until you can't"

For the types of parents who are distrustful of the MMR vaccine, those are the same types of parents that likely won't be racing their kid off to the doctors office for a low-grade fever and rash provided it doesn't escalate beyond that. And the case never gets counted.

However, when the severe cases balloon up to a point where there's actually some hospitalizations and deaths, then that's when the public health experts come in and start looking and tracing, and that's when it can't be hidden anymore.

So if I had to place a wager, I'd say that in 2020/2021, the cases were low (or zero) for the same reason Flu cases dropped during that same time period, exposures were limited due to covid provisions, and limited exposures to other viruses as an "added perk".

And I'm betting there were already quite a few cases in the 2nd half of 2024 that just never got reported as anti-vaccine parents probably quietly kept their kids home and never told anyone, but when the spread reached a point in January 2025 where a few people actually died, that's when "dirty little secrets" can no longer be hidden, and public health experts got wind of the issue and started counting.

Keep in mind that the breakouts are focused on people who are rejecting the vaccine, so they may have motivation to not report a measles like disease as measles.

ThatRobGuy · Jan 6, 2026

Hans Blaster said:
Keep in mind that the breakouts are focused on people who are rejecting the vaccine, so they may have motivation to not report a measles like disease as measles.

That's quite possible, I know amid the covid outbreaks, there were definitely people who had covid, but refused to test or concealed the results of at an-home test, as to avoid having to admit that perhaps they made a risk miscalculation.

There is a certain pride element among the "well I never took it, and I was just fine!" types.

Say it aint so · 2026-01-16T12:00:31-0600

It's not going to get any better;

Amid measles outbreak, some communities accept the vaccine but others resist

As measles continues to spread across the U.S., with outbreaks popping up around the country, public health experts have been stressing the importance of getting vaccinated to stop the spread of disease.

This has involved local doctors and health department workers going into outbreak areas to offer the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine.

The MMR vaccine is typically a two-dose series given first at 12-15 months old and again at 4-6 years of age. An extra dose can be given as early 6 months old in high-risk circumstances, including during a measles outbreak.

Health experts working in and near measles outbreaks told ABC News that vaccine acceptance has been mixed among these communities, with some people begging to get their kids vaccinated early, while others still refuse an immunization.

"[Measles] can spread so quickly amongst that unvaccinated population," Dr. Christopher Lombardozzi, chief medical officer at Spartanburg Regional Healthcare System, told ABC News. "And if the number of people who remain unvaccinated stays large, then we could have a real problem, not just this year, but in years to come." The upstate region of South Carolina is experiencing a surge in measles cases amid the ongoing outbreak.== ABC

Yes, upstate South Carolina is solid Trump.

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US facing second measles surge this year as outbreak accelerates in South Carolina

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Amid measles outbreak, some communities accept the vaccine but others resist​

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Amid measles outbreak, some communities accept the vaccine but others resist