How is the Economy Doing Right Now?

camille70 said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/14/ai-infrastructure-boom-masks-potential-us-recession-analyst-warns.html

The AI boom is lifting the stock market, but it may be masking a weaker economy

Is AI already driving U.S. growth?

Discover how artificial intelligence (AI) is driving U.S. economic growth in 2025, with record investments in data centers, tech hardware, and infrastructure. Explore the impact of AI on GDP, business investment, and the future of the American economy.

am.jpmorgan.com

Is AI already driving U.S. growth?

AI Bubble May Pop — Wiping Out $40 Trillion. Learn What Could Happen And What To Do

Will today's AI bubble wipe $40 trillion off the Nasdaq? The AI bubble has hallmarks of the dot-com boom. See three scenarios and how to know which is most likely.

www.forbes.com

AI Bubble May Pop — Wiping Out $40 Trillion. Learn What Could Happen And What To Do

https://thehill.com/policy/technology/5552965-ai-bubble-concerns-grow/

Why experts are worried about an AI bubble in the stock market

Click to expand...

This 100% true.

I agree,

Other than AI, its associated products and infrastructure, the economy would be in a downturn, a very normal part of economic cycles.

Manufacturing (other than AI) is NOT in good shape. Health R&D is in terrible shape, losing lots of talent to Europe, more everyday
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Trump's tariffs hurt the economy is so many ways. However, deregulation and the pressure Trump has put on specific companies to build has been enough to counteract the effect of the tariffs.
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A flat 10-15% tax on foreign goods is wrong and a drag on the economy, but one that is OK in that companies and customers can deal with them. And, yes, Trump can negotiate with specific companies (and countries) and get better deals for the US.

HOWEVER, using high tariff threats (TACO's) to threaten, hurt companies and supply chains, and then back off is extremely poor policy. The latest are the threats to Switzerland and Spain. We will pay for the effects of the treatment of Canada and Brazil for a very long time.
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BTW, the threats to China are different in kind. How to deal with China is much, much larger than paying more for Chinese imports. We do need to decouple from depending on Chinese goods and sales of tech goods to China. Farmers will need to be subsidized or learn to farm other crops (for example, there is an ever-increasing huge market for organic produce)

Nine months after Donald Trump took office, promising to reduce prices on “day one”, a clear majority of Americans say their monthly costs have risen by between $100 and $749, according to an exclusive new poll conducted for the Guardian.