This small Virginia island could be underwater before the next century

essentialsaltes · Monday at 2:36 PM

Tangier Island — off the mainland coast of Virginia — is one of the last inhabited islands in the Chesapeake Bay. Before colonial settlers arrived in the 1700s, Indigenous people likely traveled to the island in the summer to take advantage of the abundant fish and crabs, according to the National Park Service. Many descendants of the original settlers — with surnames like Crockett, Parks and Thomas — have remained to this day.

Since 1850, the island has lost two-thirds of its landmass to erosion and sea level rise. On average, the island sits just three feet above sea level.

The island could be almost entirely underwater in the next 50 years, according to experts like Dave Schulte, a climate change researcher and ecological restoration specialist who studied Tangier extensively.

Tangier's numbers are plummeting. The most recent census estimate puts the population at 240, a 30% decrease from 2022.

President Trump even called Tangier Mayor James Eskridge after seeing a story about the island on CNN. Trump told Eskridge then not to worry about rising sea levels, that the island would be there for hundreds more years. In 2024, Trump got 88% of the vote on the island.

Still, though Tangier is less than 100 miles from Washington, D.C., Schulte said: "They haven't gotten any real help. You know, and it just amazes me that even after all this attention and the dire situation that they're in, they're just not getting the help that they need." [Why do they need help when the president says the island will be there for centuries?]

In a statement, the White House said the Department of the Interior takes a "proactive approach to support Tangier" through the U.S. Geological Survey's monitoring of rising sea levels to inform management of the coast, and conservation efforts by the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service to sustain crabbing.

Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia has helped secure funding for the island: $800,000 in 2024 and $10 million this year.

"So, $10 million may not do the whole job, but I think it's a huge message that the federal government is paying attention," Kaine says.

Schulte estimated that it would cost $250 to 350 million to fully protect and restore the island. That would include applying protective stone along vulnerable shorelines, retrofitting plumbing and electrical throughout the town and raising the system of one-lane roads for transportation.

iluvatar5150 · Monday at 3:29 PM

essentialsaltes said:
Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia has helped secure funding for the island: $800,000 in 2024 and $10 million this year.

$10.8 million spread over 240 people is $45,000 each. And that's just to get started. It would be cheaper and more responsible to just buy these people out and turn the island into a state park.

But hey, we all know it's better to bail out failing rural towns, and their voters, than it is to invest in things that actually have some chance of producing results.

RileyG · Monday at 4:55 PM

That’s terrifying!

durangodawood · Monday at 5:44 PM

I think our shot at countering this kind of minimal sea level rise has passed us by, tho theres other grimmer outcomes we could still prevent if we cared.

durangodawood · Monday at 6:14 PM

caffeinated hermit said:
I remember when I was growing up, they told us much of Florida, Cape Cod, and Manhattan could be semi-submerged by 2025. I eventually tuned messages / predictions like this out. I agree that we need to take better care of the environment, plant more trees, reforest many areas, and reduce plastic waste, but... the "sea levels are rising" rhetoric lost me around 2005.

"They told us."

Thats what you get for tuning in to sensationalists rather than people who really know what they talking about. Serious people should be setting the tone. And according them sea level is rising for sure. Just slower. But enough that places like this will be unlivable pretty soon with current infrastructure.

caffeinated hermit · Monday at 6:23 PM

durangodawood said:
"They told us."

Thats what you get for tuning in to sensationalists rather than people who really know what they talking about. Serious people should be setting the tone. And according them sea level is rising for sure. Just slower. But enough that places like this will be unlivable pretty soon with current infrastructure.

Sir, I didn't tune in; I was taught this in elementary and junior high school. The threat of rising sea levels due to the polar ice caps melting because of the hole in the ozone layer was a part of our curriculum. But can you see how someone might be skeptical / tired after decades of hearing this, and not seeing it unfold when the experts claimed it would?

Again... I can see the our world's climates are changing. I believe that. But I no longer believe most predictions, time tables, or estimates about what will happen when. I just figure, we need to fish and farm less destructively, plant more trees, and use less plastic. What ever happened to the old approach of planting trees? We need to reconsider that one. Might seriously help.

durangodawood · Monday at 6:37 PM

caffeinated hermit said:
Sir, I didn't tune in; I was taught this in elementary and junior high school. The threat of rising sea levels due to the polar ice caps melting because of the hole in the ozone layer was a part of our curriculum. But can you see how someone might be skeptical / tired after decades of hearing this, and not seeing it unfold when the experts claimed it would?.....

Well the hole in the ozone layer was patched up pretty fast thanks to global collective action on CFCs!

Honestly, think it through!

iluvatar5150 · Monday at 6:38 PM

caffeinated hermit said:
Sir, I didn't tune in; I was taught this in elementary and junior high school. The threat of rising sea levels due to the polar ice caps melting because of the hole in the ozone layer was a part of our curriculum. But can you see how someone might be skeptical / tired after decades of hearing this, and not seeing it unfold when the experts claimed it would?

If your takeaway from your classes was that the ozone hole was going to melt the ice caps, then you either weren’t paying attention or your teachers were imbeciles. The ozone hole had nothing to do with ice caps.

durangodawood · Monday at 6:42 PM

iluvatar5150 said:
If your takeaway from your classes was that the ozone hole was going to melt the ice caps, then you either weren’t paying attention or your teachers were imbeciles. The ozone hole had nothing to do with ice caps.

Yeah I wasnt even going to go there. I recall nothing about an ozone / sea level connection either.

caffeinated hermit · Monday at 6:45 PM

iluvatar5150 said:
If your takeaway from your classes was that the ozone hole was going to melt the ice caps, then you either weren’t paying attention or your teachers were imbeciles. The ozone hole had nothing to do with ice caps.

Yep, that's what we were taught. Over and over. The hole in the ozone layer was causing global warming which would melt the polar ice caps, which would lead to much of Florida, Cape Cod, and Manhattan being submerged by 2025. I remember that so clearly because it scared the living daylights out of me as a kid.

Again, this is why I don't pay much attention to predictions.

Servus · Monday at 7:39 PM

I remember a long time ago hearing about how Venice, Italy was going to be under water in the near future.

caffeinated hermit said:
Yep, that's what we were taught. Over and over. The hole in the ozone layer was causing global warming which would melt the polar ice caps, which would lead to much of Florida, Cape Cod, and Manhattan being submerged by 2025. I remember that so clearly because it scared the living daylights out of me as a kid.

Again, this is why I don't pay much attention to predictions.

I remember that too. I've been hearing about the great global catastrophe that's right around the corner since I was a little kid and I'm 63 now.

Tuur · Tuesday at 5:13 AM

essentialsaltes said:
Tangier Island — off the mainland coast of Virginia — is one of the last inhabited islands in the Chesapeake Bay. Before colonial settlers arrived in the 1700s, Indigenous people likely traveled to the island in the summer to take advantage of the abundant fish and crabs, according to the National Park Service. Many descendants of the original settlers — with surnames like Crockett, Parks and Thomas — have remained to this day.

Since 1850, the island has lost two-thirds of its landmass to erosion and sea level rise. On average, the island sits just three feet above sea level.

The island could be almost entirely underwater in the next 50 years, according to experts like Dave Schulte, a climate change researcher and ecological restoration specialist who studied Tangier extensively.

Tangier's numbers are plummeting. The most recent census estimate puts the population at 240, a 30% decrease from 2022.

President Trump even called Tangier Mayor James Eskridge after seeing a story about the island on CNN. Trump told Eskridge then not to worry about rising sea levels, that the island would be there for hundreds more years. In 2024, Trump got 88% of the vote on the island.

Still, though Tangier is less than 100 miles from Washington, D.C., Schulte said: "They haven't gotten any real help. You know, and it just amazes me that even after all this attention and the dire situation that they're in, they're just not getting the help that they need." [Why do they need help when the president says the island will be there for centuries?]

In a statement, the White House said the Department of the Interior takes a "proactive approach to support Tangier" through the U.S. Geological Survey's monitoring of rising sea levels to inform management of the coast, and conservation efforts by the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service to sustain crabbing.

Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia has helped secure funding for the island: $800,000 in 2024 and $10 million this year.

"So, $10 million may not do the whole job, but I think it's a huge message that the federal government is paying attention," Kaine says.

Schulte estimated that it would cost $250 to 350 million to fully protect and restore the island. That would include applying protective stone along vulnerable shorelines, retrofitting plumbing and electrical throughout the town and raising the system of one-lane roads for transportation.

They picked the low-hanging fruit on this one. To understand why, first go to Google Earth and check out the elevations. Then pull up The National Map, select topo map, and verify. A far cry from a certain AGW advocate looking out a window during an interview and making an off-the-cuff prediction that a road that's still high and dry would already be underwater by now. They are learning.

The question is what sort of help did he have in mind? After the Great Galveston Hurricane, the US Army Corp of Engineers raised the entire town. Somehow, I doubt that would be acceptable, as it would damage what ecology there is of the island. The topo map shows practically the entire island as a marshy area. Did he want to move the residents? That feasible, and such has been done before. More money for studies? That would line the pockets of those doing the study, but wouldn't help the residents. What exactly is the "help" do they have in mind?

Since this is low-hanging fruit, this is one climate prediction that might actually happen. That said, there's a group of islands in the Pacific that were already predicted to be underwater by now, and - as a real head scratcher - seem to be increasing rather than decreasing in area. There will still be some on this forum around in fifty years who can see if the prediction about Tangier Island plays out.

Tuur · Tuesday at 5:21 AM

RileyG said:
That’s terrifying!

Ah, maybe. That's life on rivers and coasts. Islands vanish and islands arise. Entire rivers change course. There was the instance of someone wanting to find and salvage liquor that was on a steamboat that went down in the Mississippi, only to find that the location was now under a corn field. Know of at least one historic site that already been eroded, and it's much higher above water level than Tangier Island. Even barrier islands move, rolling back inland when sea levels rise and rolling back toward the oceans as they subside. It's all in flux.

Tuur · Tuesday at 5:25 AM

durangodawood said:
Well the hole in the ozone layer was patched up pretty fast thanks to global collective action on CFCs!

Honestly, think it through!

Eh, maybe. Every so often we hear of one opening over the Arctic or Antarctic, so it still happens, it's just not reported as much. Odd thing, that.

Stopped_lurking · Tuesday at 5:43 AM

Tuur said:
That said, there's a group of islands in the Pacific that were already predicted to be underwater by now, and - as a real head scratcher - seem to be increasing rather than decreasing in area.

Do you remember the name of the island group or the islands? Because we have already observed islands disappearing. Climate change and rising sea levels: 5 Pacific Islands that no longer exist
It could be due to something like volcanic activity but then it is kind of beside the point in a discussion about rising sea levels.

Tuur · Tuesday at 5:55 AM

Stopped_lurking said:
Do you remember the name of the island group or the islands? Because we have already observed islands disappearing. Climate change and rising sea levels: 5 Pacific Islands that no longer exist
It could be due to something like volcanic activity but then it is kind of beside the point in a discussion about rising sea levels.

The Maldives. In 1988, Maldives Environmental Director Hussein Shihab predicted that the Maldives would be underwater within thirty years. Thirty years from 1988 was in 2018 and the Maldives are still above water.

It was Tuvalu that's growing. Different nation. It's a group of atolls, but Tuvalu is growing in size, not vanishing beneath the waves.

All this isn't exactly shouted from the housetops, but it's still happening.

What to have some fun? Go to Google Earth and zoom in on Hawaii. Now start tracing islands all the way back to Siberia. Besides there being a sequence of islands as the plates moved over that volcanic plum, the size of the islands decrease the further away they are from the plum until they're seamounts. That isn't due to sea level rise.

Stopped_lurking · Tuesday at 6:18 AM

Tuur said:
The Maldives. In 1988, Maldives Environmental Director Hussein Shihab predicted that the Maldives would be underwater within thirty years. Thirty years from 1988 was in 2018 and the Maldives are still above water.

It was Tuvalu that's growing. Different nation. It's a group of atolls, but Tuvalu is growing in size, not vanishing beneath the waves.

All this isn't exactly shouted from the housetops, but it's still happening.

What to have some fun? Go to Google Earth and zoom in on Hawaii. Now start tracing islands all the way back to Siberia. Besides there being a sequence of islands as the plates moved over that volcanic plum, the size of the islands decrease the further away they are from the plum until they're seamounts. That isn't due to sea level rise.

Thank you

Tuvalu is growing due to sediment accretion out pacing sea level rise for now. So whilst it shows that reality is complex, it's not really a headscratcher. But it is not uniform, 3/4th of the islands had grown and 1/4th had diminished in size. It's a big gamble that the observations about Tuvalu are true for most islands, and the inhabited ones might include the ones that will diminish in size.

Patterns of island change and persistence offer alternate adaptation pathways for atoll nations - Nature Communications (it's open access)

Servus · Tuesday at 6:32 AM

Tuur said:
They picked the low-hanging fruit on this one. To understand why, first go to Google Earth and check out the elevations. Then pull up The National Map, select topo map, and verify. A far cry from a certain AGW advocate looking out a window during an interview and making an off-the-cuff prediction that a road that's still high and dry would already be underwater by now. They are learning.

The question is what sort of help did he have in mind? After the Great Galveston Hurricane, the US Army Corp of Engineers raised the entire town. Somehow, I doubt that would be acceptable, as it would damage what ecology there is of the island. The topo map shows practically the entire island as a marshy area. Did he want to move the residents? That feasible, and such has been done before. More money for studies? That would line the pockets of those doing the study, but wouldn't help the residents. What exactly is the "help" do they have in mind?

Since this is low-hanging fruit, this is one climate prediction that might actually happen. That said, there's a group of islands in the Pacific that were already predicted to be underwater by now, and - as a real head scratcher - seem to be increasing rather than decreasing in area. There will still be some on this forum around in fifty years who can see if the prediction about Tangier Island plays out.

I already looked at the satellite view of it on Google maps, and the first thing I noticed was how swampy it looked. I wonder how the place gets by during high tide. It looks a lot like Spencer Island near where I live. Which has a great built up trail, that you don't want to step off of unless you want to end up hip deep in mud.

essentialsaltes · Tuesday at 9:02 AM

Tuur said:
The question is what sort of help did he have in mind?

essentialsaltes said:
Schulte estimated that it would cost $250 to 350 million to fully protect and restore the island. That would include applying protective stone along vulnerable shorelines, retrofitting plumbing and electrical throughout the town and raising the system of one-lane roads for transportation.

durangodawood · Tuesday at 9:04 AM

Tuur said:
Eh, maybe. Every so often we hear of one opening over the Arctic or Antarctic, so it still happens, it's just not reported as much. Odd thing, that.

Why is that odd? Have you compared the extent of these persistent holes to one that cause alarm decades ago?

This small Virginia island could be underwater before the next century

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