I agree with a lot of what you said, but I don't think it would take as long to see positive results. I went to the Everytown Research site and found the article below. Based on past performance and future projections, noticeable reductions in gun deaths would start to be noticed within a few years if tighter gun control was initiated at the federal level and matched the gun laws found in states that currently have the strictest gun policies in the country.
New Data, Same Conclusion: Smart Gun Laws Save Lives
Today, Everytown for Gun Safety Support Fund released its 2024 state Gun Law Rankings, which once again show a clear correlation between states with strong gun laws and lower rates of gun violence. Here are three key takeaways:
Our eight “National Leaders” [California, New York, Illinois, Connecticut, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Maryland]
have a rate of gun violence nearly three times lower than the 14 “National Failures.” [Kansas, Missouri, New Hampshire, Kentucky, Alaska, Arizona, Oklahoma, Wyoming, South Dakota, Georgia, Montana, Idaho, Mississippi, and Arkansas]
If every state had the same gun death rate as our National Leaders, we could have saved more than 137,000 lives over the past decade. That’s more people than can fit in the largest football stadium in America.
Looking ahead, if every state in the country had the gun violence rates of our National Leaders, we could save 298,000 lives in the next decade—three giant football stadiums of lives saved.
While the National Leaders weren’t immune to national gun violence trends, the data shows that states that thoughtfully strengthened their laws over the years consistently saw lower death rates, with a 36 percent reduction in gun deaths since 1990.
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In 1990, the gun death rate among children and teenagers was nearly the same in both states with strong and weak laws. In the following years, that trajectory took a sharp turn, and the states that implemented the strongest gun laws reduced the rate of gun deaths among children and teenagers by 58 percent. But, following a broad national decline, states with the weakest laws have gone in a different direction, experiencing an 18 percent increase. As a result, children and teenagers are half as likely to die by guns in the states with the strongest laws compared to the states with the weakest ones.
With regards to their statement:
Our eight “National Leaders” [California, New York, Illinois, Connecticut, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Maryland]
have a rate of gun violence nearly three times lower than the 14 “National Failures.” [Kansas, Missouri, New Hampshire, Kentucky, Alaska, Arizona, Oklahoma, Wyoming, South Dakota, Georgia, Montana, Idaho, Mississippi, and Arkansas]
If every state had the same gun death rate as our National Leaders, we could have saved more than 137,000 lives over the past decade. That’s more people than can fit in the largest football stadium in America.
Looking ahead, if every state in the country had the gun violence rates of our National Leaders, we could save 298,000 lives in the next decade—three giant football stadiums of lives saved.
...there are a few issues with the way they're presenting the data.
A) They've basically hand-picked the states that fit the narrative they want to project, and ignored the others
Examples: Vermont & Maine (that have "constitutional carry" where you don't even need a permit to carry)
B) Perhaps it's just clumsy phrasing on their part, but they're using "gun death rate" and "gun violence rate" interchangeably. Which, they're two different things, and some facets aren't mitigated by gun laws.
For instance, a suicide (if a gun is the tool used) is a "gun death", but not "gun violence"... on the flipside, if someone shoots and grazes me in the leg to steal my cell phone, that's "gun violence", but it doesn't result in a death.
Three of their "failure" states (Alaska, Wyoming, Montana) have the 3 of the highest suicide rates in the nation.
And they're calling New Hampshire a failure, but New Hampshire has a homicide rate that's one of the lowest in the nation (1.4...basically on-par with Canada and England). Same with Idaho. The overwhelming majority of the gun deaths in those states are suicides, which as we discussed, aren't guaranteed to be "deaths that wouldn't have happened". That would be a rather bold assumption on their part.
So it's really homicides and gun assaults that should be the central focus of the conversation.
That's not to be callous or dismissive to people dealing with depression who are suicidal. But we can't strip rights and privileges away from people based on what suicidal people may do (given that they'll often just pivot to the next easiest method if the first easiest isn't available)
To describe it in real world terms, if I were homicidal (toward a particular person or people), making sure I didn't get the gun would likely change the trajectory of things... however, if I were suicidal, there's a solid chance that denying me gun access won't ultimately change outcome. I'd just reach for the bottle of sleeping pills instead of the gun.
State | Homicide Rate (per 100 k) |
---|
Alaska | ~8.5 |
Wyoming | ~2.9 |
Illinois | 9.8 |
New Jersey | 3.4 |
In reality, it's the times guns are used against other people that I'm primarily concerned about...again, not to sound harsh, but the suicides shouldn't be part of the pubic policy discussion with regards to gun control.
So the fact that Everytown is classifying Alaska and Wyoming as "failures" but Illinois and NJ as "successes", shows they're using some selective/creative math.