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Energy chief suggests Trump administration is altering previously published climate reports; staff for next iteration all fired already

Hans Blaster

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Yes, he is reported as saying that. The president was reported saying that he was going to replace him also.
I've not heard that. He did fire the IRS commissioner for not breaking the law this week.
They have the documents according to their own reporting. They have not released the original documents, but gave us some mission of the points they think are important.

How many times do people have to be embarrassed by be believing this kind of stuff and it never happens

Do you mean the report linked in the first paragraph of this PR release:

Department of Energy Issues Report Evaluating Impact of Greenhouse Gasses on U.S. Climate, Invites Public Comment
 
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Tuur

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For a novel virus? I think not.

Whatever that was all about, it is clear from even your own post that information about the spread of the virus was evolving unlike climate change where we have known the basic pattern for at least 3 decades.
New virus or not, human behavior remains the same, and much of the spread of disease centers on that. Right at the start of the pandemic, someone sent me a link to a story about a a health official combating the Spanish Flu, simply because the official and myself might be related. We weren't, but the article proved interesting.

Now, to set the background here, in 1918 it wasn't known that influenza is cause by viruses. It was thought to be caused by a bacteria. Why? Because cultures from the ones who died turned up a particular bacteria that they named hamophilius influenza. They later figured out that this pneumonia was a secondary infection, but in 1918 they didn't know that. They did know about isolation of the infected. They did know large gatherings could spread it. It later unfolded that a good bit of what was done in 1918 would be done during the pandemic because human behaviors that help spread highly contagious disease is pretty much constant regardless of the infectious agent. Those measures showed up again during the last pandemic because they centered on human behavior that could spread highly contagious infections.

Now, if you know an infectious agent can be spread by droplets from the nose and mouth, you know a mask can help contain the droplets. The purpose is to contain the infection to the infected person. Same reason surgeons have masked for over a century now. If you know that infectious can be spread by contact, you wash your hands. That's been known for over a century, too. It was already known that the eyes, nose, and mouth were avenues for infection, so touching eyes, nose, and mouth with contaminated hands is good way to catch various ailments. Put the two together and you know you need to wash your hands before donning a mask, you need to make sure it's properly fitted, and once in place you leave it alone.

What the CDC knew was that the average person likely won't wash hands before masking; won't know how to wear it properly; will fiddle with it; set it down on objects, and other stuff humans do. You don't need to know a virus' genetic code to know that putting on a mask with unwashed hands is going to bring those dirty fingers up around the eyes, nose, and mouth. That was the CDC initial concern: People would mask, which could contain droplets from nose and mouth if used properly, but were more likely to use them improperly and thus increase their risk of infection from people being people. All that was necessary to know was that it could spread through the droplets from your nose and mouth. Knowing the particulars about a specific virus isn't necessary for that.

Remember the outcry when the CDC first recommended against the general public masking? Horrors! It was on the "news." It was in conversations. There were all sorts of negative comments. And lo and behold the CDC reversed itself. Before much more was known about the virus, too, I might add.

The rest is an unfortunate history of people wearing masks improperly, fiddling with them, laying them down on surfaces, and all the other bad behavior that the CDC initially feared when they first panned the general public masking. That first assessment was based on people being people, and that holds whether a highly contagious disease is new or not.
 
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Hans Blaster

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New virus or not, human behavior remains the same, and much of the spread of disease centers on that. Right at the start of the pandemic, someone sent me a link to a story about a a health official combating the Spanish Flu, simply because the official and myself might be related. We weren't, but the article proved interesting.

Now, to set the background here, in 1918 it wasn't known that influenza is cause by viruses. It was thought to be caused by a bacteria. Why? Because cultures from the ones who died turned up a particular bacteria that they named hamophilius influenza. They later figured out that this pneumonia was a secondary infection, but in 1918 they didn't know that. They did know about isolation of the infected. They did know large gatherings could spread it. It later unfolded that a good bit of what was done in 1918 would be done during the pandemic because human behaviors that help spread highly contagious disease is pretty much constant regardless of the infectious agent. Those measures showed up again during the last pandemic because they centered on human behavior that could spread highly contagious infections.

Now, if you know an infectious agent can be spread by droplets from the nose and mouth, you know a mask can help contain the droplets. The purpose is to contain the infection to the infected person. Same reason surgeons have masked for over a century now. If you know that infectious can be spread by contact, you wash your hands. That's been known for over a century, too. It was already known that the eyes, nose, and mouth were avenues for infection, so touching eyes, nose, and mouth with contaminated hands is good way to catch various ailments. Put the two together and you know you need to wash your hands before donning a mask, you need to make sure it's properly fitted, and once in place you leave it alone.

What the CDC knew was that the average person likely won't wash hands before masking; won't know how to wear it properly; will fiddle with it; set it down on objects, and other stuff humans do. You don't need to know a virus' genetic code to know that putting on a mask with unwashed hands is going to bring those dirty fingers up around the eyes, nose, and mouth. That was the CDC initial concern: People would mask, which could contain droplets from nose and mouth if used properly, but were more likely to use them improperly and thus increase their risk of infection from people being people. All that was necessary to know was that it could spread through the droplets from your nose and mouth. Knowing the particulars about a specific virus isn't necessary for that.

Remember the outcry when the CDC first recommended against the general public masking? Horrors! It was on the "news." It was in conversations. There were all sorts of negative comments. And lo and behold the CDC reversed itself. Before much more was known about the virus, too, I might add.

The rest is an unfortunate history of people wearing masks improperly, fiddling with them, laying them down on surfaces, and all the other bad behavior that the CDC initially feared when they first panned the general public masking. That first assessment was based on people being people, and that holds whether a highly contagious disease is new or not.
None of this had a single thing to do with DOE climate "assessments". I have no interest in rehashing any "mask controversies".
 
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Tuur

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None of this had a single thing to do with DOE climate "assessments". I have no interest in rehashing any "mask controversies".
On the contrary, it has everything to do with the fleeting aspect of government assessments; an example that should be fresh in everyone's mind. Government assessments tend to change with the political winds. An inconvenient truth, perhaps, but truth all the same.

As I said above, when the Democrats regain the White House, the assessments will very likely change again. That's the way of things.
 
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essentialsaltes

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As I said above, when the Democrats regain the White House, the assessments will very likely change again. That's the way of things.
The Fourth Assessment, published during the Trump Administration, is consistent with the others.

The New York Times reported "White House officials made a calculation that Mr. Trump’s core base of supporters most likely would not care that its findings are so at odds with the president’s statements and policies.” Steven Milloy, a climate-change denier[43] who served on Trump's EPA transition team, ... noted that the Administration did not alter the report's findings but rather chose to release it the day after Thanksgiving "on a day when nobody cares, and hope it gets swept away by the next day’s news."

Trump 2.0 is going that extra mile, it appears.
 
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RocksInMyHead

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Government assessments tend to change with the political winds.
This is a relatively recent development that coincides with one of our politics parties deciding that truth in general is inconvenient and that the concept of "alternative facts" is actually a real thing rather than satire. Generally speaking, scientific assessments don't change significantly unless there is a massive shift in scientific understanding.
As I said above, when the Democrats regain the White House, the assessments will very likely change again. That's the way of things.
If someone runs for office on the platform that 2+2=5 and wins, then goes about changing all the documentation to reflect their beliefs, the next guy coming back through and fixing those changes, reverting the official record to reflect the fact that 2+2=4, is not evidence that math is political or that it changes with the political winds.
 
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Hans Blaster

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On the contrary, it has everything to do with the fleeting aspect of government assessments; an example that should be fresh in everyone's mind. Government assessments tend to change with the political winds. An inconvenient truth, perhaps, but truth all the same.

As I said above, when the Democrats regain the White House, the assessments will very likely change again. That's the way of things.
That's not how scientific assessments work. If one has changed due to politics, then it is completely on the politicians who made it change.
 
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Tuur

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This is a relatively recent development that coincides with one of our politics parties deciding that truth in general is inconvenient and that the concept of "alternative facts" is actually a real thing rather than satire.
Unfortunately, it's not recent and it's both parties. I really thought most people realized this. Remember the old Emergency Broadcast System? It used to end with "If this had been an actual emergency..." can't recall the exact wording but basically was that listeners would be told where to turn for official information." When I was a child, that "official information" seemed dubious. My gut feeling was that it might be official, but it might not be truthful. It was obvious to a child even back then.

Now, if someone wants to believe that one party are dirty liars and the other alabaster saints, so be it. But that's not how things work. And when, one day, the Democrats win a presidential election and there is a change in administrations, we'll see the same things, with the spin that it's all entirely proper to protect from "misinformation."
 
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Tuur

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That's not how scientific assessments work. If one has changed due to politics, then it is completely on the politicians who made it change.
Exactly! 100% agreement! Official lines from administrations may appeal to science for authority, but that appeal may be the closest science ever gets near it.
 
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Hans Blaster

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Exactly! 100% agreement! Official lines from administrations may appeal to science for authority, but that appeal may be the closest science ever gets near it.

I'm not sure what point you are trying to make. The IPCC assessment were not driven by politics, but by science. I have no idea what this new thing is (the one in the OP). I haven't read it or seen a summary of it.
 
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Tuur

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I'm not sure what point you are trying to make. The IPCC assessment were not driven by politics, but by science. I have no idea what this new thing is (the one in the OP). I haven't read it or seen a summary of it.
My point? If the government is involved, assessments are going to reflect government interests. Just that simple. What science says is one thing; what government says is another. Government will use what it finds convenient to advance those interests and ignore the rest. That's the nature of politics. If government wasn't involved in this particular matter, government wouldn't have been able to remove previous assessments.

Ever since I heard about the "Clovis Police" decades ago in North American archeology, meaning those defending the then common idea that the Clovis culture were the first in North America, I've been a little skeptical about science as well. OF course, archeology isn't as cut and dried as particle physics, but I was once told that at some conference of physicists there was was once a running gag where someone would start ranting about string theory until carried away by men wearing white coats. The recent finding about fraudulent AI generated research papers is more than a little unsettling, but maybe that hasn't crept into physics yet.
 
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Hans Blaster

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My point? If the government is involved, assessments are going to reflect government interests. Just that simple.
Simple cynicism, nothing else.
What science says is one thing; what government says is another. Government will use what it finds convenient to advance those interests and ignore the rest. That's the nature of politics. If government wasn't involved in this particular matter, government wouldn't have been able to remove previous assessments.
We weren't talking about government, we were talking about a scientific report.
Ever since I heard about the "Clovis Police" decades ago in North American archeology, meaning those defending the then common idea that the Clovis culture were the first in North America, I've been a little skeptical about science as well.
Just cynicism. That's all it is. You don't have evidence to back your claims. Just applying your cynicism as a presumption. As for "Clovis first" it was a reasonable hypothesis until evidence mounted that it was wrong. That a few old timers resisted is just human nature.
OF course, archeology isn't as cut and dried as particle physics, but I was once told that at some conference of physicists there was was once a running gag where someone would start ranting about string theory until carried away by men wearing white coats.
Never heard of such a thing. If you are giving a talk no one is going to haul you away. If you rant from the audience, they might, but the topic of your ranting is not relevant, only your rudeness.
The recent finding about fraudulent AI generated research papers is more than a little unsettling, but maybe that hasn't crept into physics yet.
I don't read journals that would even contemplate allowing such a thing.
 
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Tuur

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The most iimportant thing first:

I don't read journals that would even contemplate allowing such a thing.

https://www.science.org/content/article/fake-scientific-papers-are-alarmingly-common

Never heard of such a thing. If you are giving a talk no one is going to haul you away. If you rant from the audience, they might, but the topic of your ranting is not relevant, only your rudeness.
Never heard of the gag? Interesting, but then again I think I'm at least a decade older and maybe it was something done back then. The source was in an article about string theory.

Just cynicism. That's all it is. You don't have evidence to back your claims. Just applying your cynicism as a presumption. As for "Clovis first" it was a reasonable hypothesis until evidence mounted that it was wrong. That a few old timers resisted is just human nature.
Never claimed I wasn't a cynic. I heard "Clovis Police" from archeologists discussing evidence of pre-Clovis culture appearance of humans in North America. There was a lot of push-back. Being that was what they did for a living, would think they would know what they were talking about.
Simple cynicism, nothing else.
What I've observed is easy to see if you just look. The OP gives an example. It's not something that started with the current administration. Sure, I'm cynical, but at times I wonder if I'm cynical enough.
 
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Hans Blaster

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Junk journals, predatory journals, AI slop are all issues, but I think you completely ignored what I said about them: I don't read such journals. And frankly, neither do any other scientists I work with. They also have nothing to do with the IPCC assessments.
Never heard of the gag? Interesting, but then again I think I'm at least a decade older and maybe it was something done back then. The source was in an article about string theory.
No, I haven't.
Never claimed I wasn't a cynic. I heard "Clovis Police" from archeologists discussing evidence of pre-Clovis culture appearance of humans in North America. There was a lot of push-back. Being that was what they did for a living, would think they would know what they were talking about.
I am aware of "Clovis First" and how stubborn the proponents were even in the light of growing evidence that Clovis was certainly not "first". I read about it in a popular science magazine 30 years ago, back when I already knew (from a knowledge of the evidence) that climate change was a real problem and not some "political tool".
What I've observed is easy to see if you just look. The OP gives an example. It's not something that started with the current administration. Sure, I'm cynical, but at times I wonder if I'm cynical enough.
It sounds like an excuse to attack science you don't like.
 
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Say it aint so

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Junk journals, predatory journals, AI slop are all issues, but I think you completely ignored what I said about them: I don't read such journals. And frankly, neither do any other scientists I work with. They also have nothing to do with the IPCC assessments.
Seems to me these fake publications were flushed by a scientific method. There is a far cry between that and the government literally cooking the books.
 
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Tuur

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Junk journals, predatory journals, AI slop are all issues, but I think you completely ignored what I said about them: I don't read such journals. And frankly, neither do any other scientists I work with. They also have nothing to do with the IPCC assessments.
And the infamous Schon scandal? Nature published at least one of his claims. Nor was Schon the only one. Here is an article from MIT's Technology Review::

The US physics community is not done working on trust

Note the reference to "top level journals" in regards to claims of room-temperature superconductivity.

BTW, if you want to call Technology Review and Nature junk journals, I want to be there to watch the fun.

It sounds like an excuse to attack science you don't like.
I'm tell you, as an old cynical person, that if it comes from the government, it's going to reflect government views at that point in time. It will shift with administrations and whichever way the political winds blow. If it happens to be accurate, know that even a blind hog can find an acorn now and then. The trick is to compare it to non-government sources.
 
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Tuur

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Seems to me these fake publications were flushed by a scientific method. There is a far cry between that and the government literally cooking the books.
True, and my point was my cynicism about science. In my younger days would get exited about this and that study. But then there was something called polywater. Then it turned out that Gregor Mendel may have did a little book cooking, but then there's this:

Mud Sticks: On the Alleged Falsification of Mendel's Data - PMC

In the 1970s, that Mendel may have cooked more than a side dish of peas was making the rounds.

Now I'm a bit jaded. My younger self would have been excited by claims that power from nuclear fusion is really just around the corner this time. My older self goes "Suure." Will comment that if Hellon happens to be right we could see fusion power in vehicles and all of a sudden both IC and battery powered vehicles would be obsolete.

But apparently, I only read junky journals, so what would I know?
 
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Tuur

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Will comment that if Hellon happens to be right we could see fusion power in vehicles and all of a sudden both IC and battery powered vehicles would be obsolete.
Make that "Helion." Far be it from me to alter a previously published document...
 
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Hans Blaster

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And the infamous Schon scandal?
Nope. Never heard of him or his scandal.
Nature published at least one of his claims. Nor was Schon the only one. Here is an article from MIT's Technology Review::

The US physics community is not done working on trust

Note the reference to "top level journals" in regards to claims of room-temperature superconductivity.

BTW, if you want to call Technology Review and Nature junk journals, I want to be there to watch the fun.
Never heard of "Technology Review" and historically Nature's standards for review in physics haven't been so great. Perhaps things are better now that they have several physics/astronomy "sub-versions" of "Nature". But frankly, I don't know of anything I've ever needed published in any of those either. I'll stick to the society journals.
I'm tell you, as an old cynical person, that if it comes from the government, it's going to reflect government views at that point in time. It will shift with administrations and whichever way the political winds blow. If it happens to be accurate, know that even a blind hog can find an acorn now and then. The trick is to compare it to non-government sources.
The science is from primarily non-government sources.
 
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Tuur

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The science is from primarily non-government sources.
First, since you said you never heard of the Schon scandal, here's what Wikipedia has to say:

Schön scandal - Wikipedia

Second, saying the science comes primarily from non-science sources overlooks how propaganda usually involves cherry-picking. Take only that which promotes the policy you desire and overlook the rest.

So it is that odds are good that you never heard of a study back in 2011 found climate models had an accuracy of less than a random walk. Models have likely changed in the last 14 years so the study may well no longer be valid. The point is that, at the time, the study essentially flew under radar. If someone is wanting to implement a change based on climate predictions, the last thing they want to hear, especially if they've invested a lot of time and money, is those predictions may well have been less accurate than guessing. Climate models are science; the study that in 2011 the models were less accurate than a random walk is science, but telling one and not the other to promote a particular view, and that (with apologies to political science majors) isn't science.

Did I mention that study was 14 years old? Did I mention climate models have (hopefully) changed? I did? Good. Wouldn't want anyone to get upset.

Assuming one party does it while another party doesn't strikes me like Art Buchwald's comment that when he poked fun an one party the other thought he was hilarious, but when their party was in office and he poked fun at them, they thought he's lost his sense of humor. All of them do it. Thinking that it's one and not the other creates a blind spot.

Just some advice from an old cynic who'll read "those" journals if they come up under science news.
 
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