As Texas Flood Deaths Rise, Officials Blast Faulty Forecast by National Weather Service

essentialsaltes · Saturday at 11:53 AM

Why are these enemies of the people allowed to ask questions of our commander in chief?

essentialsaltes · Saturday at 11:58 AM

Conspiracy Theories About the Texas Floods Lead to Death Threats

Disinformation around a “weather weapon” and cloud seeding is being widely promoted by everyone from anti-government extremists to GOP influencers—leading to real-world consequences.

Death threats over Texas flooding cartoon force museum journalism event to be postponed

An online fury erupted this week over an editorial cartoon in The Buffalo News by Pulitzer Prize-winner Adam Zyglis showing a man in a MAGA cap being swept away by the Texas floodwaters.

Chesterton · Saturday at 12:07 PM

Wow, thread is thirteen pages long. Can't believe people are still desperately grasping at straws to try to politicize a natural disaster.

Lukaris · Saturday at 1:25 PM

Probably Trump’s awkward response in saying a question was “evil” was in relation to a viewpoint that blames him for the flood. How much is true or not is hard to assess and whether it is a political drumbeat or not.

The response of the Trump administrators:

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1449100592937496

Of course most of the 24/7 always anti Trump contingent on CF thinks anyone who voted for Trump is evil so go figure.

wing2000 · Saturday at 1:37 PM

hedrick said:
It's a difficult situation. My after the fact inclination is to say that given that the camp was in a place known to be prone to flooding, when the warning came out the previous day they should have made sure someone was in a position to get alerts. But warnings aren't very specific. It would be interesting how often warnings like this happened. Still, if I were running a kid's camp in a flood plain, I'd want to make sure I monitored the situation.

I agree.

The forecast predicted one to three inches of rain, with isolated amounts potentially reaching up to six inches.

As a camp manager....I would know:
- the camp sits in a flood zone
- previous floods had killed people
- potentially 6" of rain may fall on in the watershed feeding the river
I would be on alert.

Once more, the county should have had someone on duty to initiate an action plan when the first NWS Flood Warning was issued shortly after 1 AM. An action plan that involved active monitoring of water levels - by instruments or persons. It's still early, but IMO, county officials were negligent.

Bradskii · Saturday at 5:18 PM

Chesterton said:
Wow, thread is thirteen pages long. Can't believe people are still desperately grasping at straws to try to politicize a natural disaster.

Well over a hundred people were drowned. Many of them children. It was avoidable. If you aren't interested in looking to see who was at fault then there's the +Unfollow button at the top right of the thread.

essentialsaltes · Saturday at 7:01 PM

Lukaris said:
Probably Trump’s awkward response in saying a question was “evil” was in relation to a viewpoint that blames him for the flood. How much is true or not is hard to assess and whether it is a political drumbeat or not.

If you've paid any attention to this thread, the arrow of blame is pointing more and more to local Kerr County officials, not Trump or the NWS.

wing2000 · Sunday at 8:58 AM

Rejecting federal money in 2021 because....

In 2021, Kerr County was awarded a $10.2 million windfall from the American Rescue Plan Act, or ARPA, which Congress passed that same year to support local governments impacted by the pandemic. Cities and counties were given flexibility to use the money on a variety of expenses, including those related to storm-related infrastructure. Corpus Christi, for example, allocated $15 million of its ARPA funding to “rehabilitate and/or replace aging storm water infrastructure.” Waco’s McLennan County spent $868,000 on low water crossings.

Kerr County did not opt for ARPA to fund flood warning systems despite commissioners discussing such projects nearly two dozen times since 2016. In fact, a survey sent to residents about ARPA spending showed that 42% of the 180 responses wanted to reject the $10 million bonus altogether, largely on political grounds.

“I’m here to ask this court today to send this money back to the Biden administration, which I consider to be the most criminal treasonous communist government ever to hold the White House,” one resident told commissioners in April 2022, fearing strings were attached to the money.

“We don't want to be bought by the federal government, thank you very much,” another resident told commissioners. “We'd like the federal government to stay out of Kerr County and their money.”

Did fiscal conservatism block plans for a new flood warning system in Kerr County?

In the last nine years, federal funding for a system has been denied to the county as it contends with a tax base hostile to government overspending.

www.texastribune.org

Hans Blaster · Sunday at 2:48 PM

wing2000 said:
“I’m here to ask this court today to send this money back to the Biden administration, which I consider to be the most criminal treasonous communist government ever to hold the White House,” one resident told commissioners in April 2022, fearing strings were attached to the money.

“We don't want to be bought by the federal government, thank you very much,” another resident told commissioners. “We'd like the federal government to stay out of Kerr County and their money.”

Wow! Irrational partisan political media really erodes reasoning skills.

BNR32FAN · Monday at 12:49 PM

Say it aint so said:
The National Weather Service’s San Angelo office, which is responsible for some of the areas hit hardest by Friday’s flooding, was missing a senior hydrologist, staff forecaster and meteorologist in charge, according to Tom Fahy, the legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees Organization, the union that represents Weather Service workers.

The Weather Service’s nearby San Antonio office, which covers other areas hit by the floods, also had significant vacancies, including a warning coordination meteorologist and science officer, Mr. Fahy said. Staff members in those positions are meant to work with local emergency managers to plan for floods, including when and how to warn local residents and help them evacuate.

That office’s warning coordination meteorologist left on April 30, after taking the early retirement package the Trump administration used to reduce the number of federal employees, according to a person with knowledge of his departure. --NYT

If you fire or promote staff reduction, then expect decline in capability. If you cut funding, expect a reduction of equipment affecting capability. It's not rocket science and the warnings declared long before this flood. But don't worry, Marge Greene has introduced legislation to get at the real root of the problem which are “lasers or blue beams of light” from “space solar generators” manipulating weather. Kind of like covid, climate change don't care. Weather is getting more chaotic and we have the same party as Greene cutting funding that even hurts farmers farm, while wanting to kill FEMA and let states fend for themselves. It's a constant cycle of "What's the Matter with Kansas".

Really because according to the NWS they had extra personnel on staff during the storm.

“Where the office would typically have two forecasters on duty during clear weather, they had up to five on staff.”

“There were extra people in here that night, and that's typical in every weather service office — you staff up for an event and bring people in on overtime and hold people over,” Runyen said.

National Weather Service shares timeline of alerts ahead of catastrophic Texas flooding

NWS says Flash Flood Warnings were issued on July 3 and early July 4 in Central Texas, giving more than three hours of warning.

www.nbcdfw.com

BNR32FAN · Monday at 1:14 PM

JosephZ said:
If you would have read beyond the first paragraph of the article I quoted earlier in the tread, you would have read that staff shortages at the NWS and the inability to coordinate with local officials in a timely manner were an issue.

Lol an article from The NY Times? Like they’re a credible source. The NWS was issuing flash flood alerts since the day before the incident.

National Weather Service shares timeline of alerts ahead of catastrophic Texas flooding

NWS says Flash Flood Warnings were issued on July 3 and early July 4 in Central Texas, giving more than three hours of warning.

www.nbcdfw.com

The problem was that the people didn’t leave the area, not that they weren’t warned ahead of time. River banks are very low land prone to flooding extremely fast during a flash flood. It’s literally the most dangerous place you can possibly be during a flash flood warning.

BNR32FAN · Monday at 1:17 PM

ozso said:
Some camps go pretty deep into the wilderness. Aside from that, the folks in charge likely had safety plans in place. Liability is always a prime motivator for that. But nothing can really be done when it comes to a wall of water flash flood.

Well one thing you can surely do if you hear a flash flood warning is to get away from the river bank. It’s literally the most dangerous place you could possibly be during a flash flood warning.

Say it aint so · Monday at 1:19 PM

BNR32FAN said:
Really because according to the NWS they had extra personnel on staff during the storm.

“Where the office would typically have two forecasters on duty during clear weather, they had up to five on staff.”

“There were extra people in here that night, and that's typical in every weather service office — you staff up for an event and bring people in on overtime and hold people over,” Runyen said.

National Weather Service shares timeline of alerts ahead of catastrophic Texas flooding

NWS says Flash Flood Warnings were issued on July 3 and early July 4 in Central Texas, giving more than three hours of warning.

www.nbcdfw.com

I think you may want to reread both what I posted and what you posted and look at tasks. How do meteorologists get their forecasts and who is tasked to make sure the communities receive those forecasts in emergency scenarios? Again, that guy took the Trump retirement and was not replaced.

BNR32FAN · Monday at 1:21 PM

FaithT said:
One can say the same thing about all the comments the right makes and has made about Joe Biden.

What’s your point? If they’re going to lie we’re going to lie to?

JosephZ · Monday at 1:22 PM

BNR32FAN said:
Lol an article from The NY Times? Like they’re a credible source. The NWS was issuing flash flood alerts since the day before the incident.

From the NYT article:

...former Weather Service officials said the forecasts were as good as could be expected, given the enormous levels of rainfall and the storm’s unusually abrupt escalation.

Around midnight on Thursday, the San Angelo and San Antonio weather offices put out their first flash flood warnings, urging people to “move immediately to higher ground.” The office sent out additional flash flood warnings through the night, expanding the area of danger.

It is not clear what steps local officials took to act on those warnings.

Mr. Sokich said that the local Weather Service offices appeared to have sent out the correct warnings. He said the challenge was getting people to receive those warnings, and then take action.

BNR32FAN · Monday at 1:23 PM

Say it aint so said:
I think you may want to reread both what I posted and what you posted and look at tasks. How do meteorologists get their forecasts and who is tasked to make sure the communities receive those forecasts in emergency scenarios? Again, that guy took the Trump retirement and was not replaced.

Oh so you didn’t read the part about the flash floods warnings being broadcast the day before the incident? Who cares where that guy was the fact is that the warnings went out the day before it happened.

BNR32FAN · Monday at 1:26 PM

JosephZ said:
From the NYT article:

...former Weather Service officials said the forecasts were as good as could be expected, given the enormous levels of rainfall and the storm’s unusually abrupt escalation.

Around midnight on Thursday, the San Angelo and San Antonio weather offices put out their first flash flood warnings, urging people to “move immediately to higher ground.” The office sent out additional flash flood warnings through the night, expanding the area of danger.

It is not clear what steps local officials took to act on those warnings.

Mr. Sokich said that the local Weather Service offices appeared to have sent out the correct warnings. He said the challenge was getting people to receive those warnings, and then take action.

Yeah the NWS is only responsible for sending the warnings out, they’re not responsible for who is monitoring them or not.

JosephZ · Monday at 1:49 PM

BNR32FAN said:
Yeah the NWS is only responsible for sending the warnings out, they’re not responsible for who is monitoring them or not.

The NYT article was accurate and reported that warnings had been issued correctly and in a timely manner.

That being said, every NWS office is supposed to have a warning coordination meteorologist. Unfortunately, this position is vacant at the San Antonio NWS.

The Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM) is the individual who is responsible for the warning program at the office (i.e. warning information that is sent to the public, verification of warnings, formatting warning information for "Storm Data" publication). This includes interacting with emergency managers, county officials, schools and the media.

Head of local weather warnings takes early retirement as NOAA cuts continue

Paul Yura, the warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio office, has announced he has taken the early retirement offer as part of NOAA’s recent cuts to personnel and budget.

The warning coordination meteorologist (WCM) is a senior role at a local NWS office. According to NOAA, “The WCM coordinates the warning function of the office with the outside world. This would include heading the Skywarn Program, conducting spotter training and being a voice to the local media for the office.”

The importance of experience in the WCM role cannot be overstated. Ensuring ample and timely warning to the Central Texas counties covered by NWS Austin/San Antonio is among the chief responsibilities.

essentialsaltes · Monday at 1:52 PM

BNR32FAN said:
Yeah the NWS is only responsible for sending the warnings out, they’re not responsible for who is monitoring them or not.

That's not entirely true. Pulled from above.

The Weather Service’s nearby San Antonio office, which covers other areas hit by the floods, also had significant vacancies, including a warning coordination meteorologist and science officer, Mr. Fahy said. Staff members in those positions are meant to work with local emergency managers to plan for floods, including when and how to warn local residents and help them evacuate.

So there is some need to coordinate warning with local officials. And no doubt having that additional warning coordinator could have helped.

That said, again, if one has taken the time to read this thread, the finger has pointed more and more to what local officials did and didn't do. (and let us not forget that it was local officials who first pointed fingers at the NWS).

SimplyMe · Monday at 2:54 PM

keith99 said:
As I mentioned earlier I worked at over a half dozen different YMCA camps. I also worked at one commercial camp.

Counselors or leaders were those who had direct contact with the campers. Sometimes that terminology applied to those in charge of an area like horseback riding, go karts or rifle range. Sometimes it was only used to refer to those directly overseeing the campers and almost by definition sleeping in the same cabin.

Those who would be monitoring phones i the manner you mention would be on the directing staff. Though in a situation where there has been any initial report that would indicate that close monitoring was called for I would hope they would be actually monitoring the super local conditions. Local is where one first knows water has overflowed or is about to overflow the banks.

I know that the better directors I worked with would have been closely following reports.

Not me. I had a reputation. I would have ended up checking and rechecking escape routes.

My bet is that some reporter heard a councilor complaining about the no phones policy and never even thought to ask if anyone had a phone. 90% chance doing so mainly because it meant they could not chat with their boy/girlfriend. And now it keeps getting hammered on. Though if the director was one of the poorer ones I worked with I can see the complaint being made for all the right reasons.

More information has come out, and one of the directors was monitoring the alerts -- the camp leadership knew about the afternoon's Flash Flood Watch -- and, per the family, the Executive Director got the Severe Flood Warning on his phone at 1:14. If he can be criticized, though I'm not sure the facts warrant it, it might be that he had staffers monitor the river and only when it started raining hard, an hour later, did he begin evacuations. It appears that wasn't what led to the deaths, though, as this flood was much worse than those seen historically and the girls who died and are missing came from cabins that historically were in a "safe" zone. It is also worth noting that the Executive Director, Dick Eastland, was one of those that died in the flooding as he was attempting to help rescue some of the youngest girls.

The camp is at the junction of Cypress Creek and the South Fork of the Guadalupe River and, with both rivers being so swollen, evidence is showing that the Guadalupe River actually started flowing backwards because of the amount of flood waters at the junction. This back flow, with the eddies it caused in the areas of the camp, is what appears to have caused the flooding of the "Handy Hut," where the missing girls were staying, that was well into the traditional safe zone.

So there are concerns about the speed of the response; as well as if the camp buildings, particularly ones that people slept in, should have been allowed to remain in the flood zones (and even in the relatively "safe" areas that flooded this year). It is a tragedy, for all involved, and hopefully it can lead to safer camps in the future.

As Texas Flood Deaths Rise, Officials Blast Faulty Forecast by National Weather Service

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