As Texas Flood Deaths Rise, Officials Blast Faulty Forecast by National Weather Service

[wing2000]

County records show that some Kerr County officials did see it coming and raised concerns about the county’s outdated flood warning system nearly a decade ago.

Their first request for help updating the technology was denied in 2017, when Kerr County applied for roughly $1 million in federal Hazard Mitigation Grant Program aid from the Texas Department of Emergency Management. County officials tried again in 2018 after Hurricane Harvey swept Texas, killing 89 people and causing some $159 billion in damage. Again, the state denied the request, directing most federal assistance toward more densely populated areas, including Houston.

As neighboring counties invested in better emergency warning systems, Kerr County — the heart of Flash Flood Alley — never modernized an antiquated flood warning system that lacks basic components like sirens and river gauges.

This Texas county asked for disaster resilience help. The flood came first.

 

[durangodawood]

Leaders in Kerr county, where searchers have found about 90 bodies, said their first priority is recovering victims, not reviewing what happened in the hours before the flash floods.

Only losing football teams ask questions about who's to blame; winners are determined to score next time and win the game, TX governor says​

 

[iluvatar5150]

This Texas county asked for disaster resilience help. The flood came first.

From the article:

Although some nearby jurisdictions, such as Comal County, built siren systems to alert residents to floods, Moser noted that many people in Kerr County opposed sirens. A website, he hoped, would fill that void.

They say everything is bigger in Texas. Apparently that includes the idiots, too.

 

[keith99]

....text based alerts are all well and good. But how effective are they at 1:20 AM? I know I would sleep right through them.....

It seems to me one needs other methods as well...such as sirens.

I mentioned earlier that I worked at several YMCA camps. At least 2 of them used hand cranked WW II surplus air raid sirens as the regular way of calling assembly. That was basically 3 times a day. E.g. for each meal.

In that more pure camp setting (e.g. no neighbors besides perhaps one other camp for miles) it was perfect for emergency situations. Siren goes off at 2 in the morning and most of the kids would figure out where to go even if emergency training were skipped. And my bet is they would be fairly calm, as much complaining about a 2 am assembly as any fears.

Now this situation has one huge difference. It seems flooding is the number 1 potential emergency and my bet is that any assembly area is apt to be lower than many of the cabins. It being almost a sure thing that the routes from some cabins will involve places that are lower then both the cabin and the assembly area. A significant complication.

 

[keith99]

I don't have an issue with girls not having phones in a camp like this. As pointed out, there are a variety of reasons not to allow them, not least at which issues of theft (or even pranks where phones are hidden) and charging.

At the same time, they should have at least one senior counselor who always has a working phone with them (even if requiring them to remain in a particular office (I'm sure they have some administrative work that needs to be done) where they either get service or can be connected to WiFi) that is getting emergency alerts, particularly weather alerts. If nothing else, you have one of the affiliated church leaders who monitors events and a camp leader always near a phone (even if they have to sleep in the camp office), where they can call in case of emergency, such as this flash flood.

I have to wonder if someone from the affiliated church, not at the camp, tried calling the camp (knowing the lack of connectivity at the camp) only (since people don't have phones at the camp) could not get in touch with camp leaders to warn them of the flooding.

As I mentioned earlier I worked at over a half dozen different YMCA camps. I also worked at one commercial camp.

Counselors or leaders were those who had direct contact with the campers. Sometimes that terminology applied to those in charge of an area like horseback riding, go karts or rifle range. Sometimes it was only used to refer to those directly overseeing the campers and almost by definition sleeping in the same cabin.

Those who would be monitoring phones i the manner you mention would be on the directing staff. Though in a situation where there has been any initial report that would indicate that close monitoring was called for I would hope they would be actually monitoring the super local conditions. Local is where one first knows water has overflowed or is about to overflow the banks.

I know that the better directors I worked with would have been closely following reports.

Not me. I had a reputation. I would have ended up checking and rechecking escape routes.

My bet is that some reporter heard a councilor complaining about the no phones policy and never even thought to ask if anyone had a phone. 90% chance doing so mainly because it meant they could not chat with their boy/girlfriend. And now it keeps getting hammered on. Though if the director was one of the poorer ones I worked with I can see the complaint being made for all the right reasons.

 

[rjs330]

Hmm....nothing about Trump needing to repent.

I said " yeah" in answer.

 

[rjs330]

President Donald Trump’s approach to the federal government has been to cut, cut, cut, which means when there is a disaster in which the government plays a role, he will have to expect questions about those cuts.

When there’s a plane crash, as there was days into his second term, the shortage of air traffic controllers will be scrutinized.
When the administration quietly backtracks on some layoffs and struggles to re-fill key positions, it will lead to concerns that cuts went too far.

When there’s a tragic flood that catches an area off-guard, the effect of his cuts on the National Weather Service and FEMA will become a line of inquiry.

Flash floods killed at least 95 people over the July Fourth holiday, and many others are still missing. Rescue and recovery are still ongoing, so no one can say for sure that personnel cuts at the National Weather Service or open positions at forecasting offices in Texas amplified or even affected the flood’s tragic outcome.
There are many facts yet to be discovered, and a full investigation will certainly be conducted.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/07/politics/noaa-nws-fema-layoffs-cuts-texas-floods

I'm thinking that the "investigation" will have the same fate as the Epstein files.

“If you look at that water situation, that was really the Biden setup,”

Donald Trump Makes ‘Super’ Awkward Gaffe While Ranting About Iran

The president’s thunderously botched take went viral.

www.aol.com

It's his way; whenever he messes up, he blames someone else. This is how we know he knows he messed up.

Except he didn't.

 

[The Barbarian]

Except he didn't.

Trump's people a month ago, were frantically trying to repair the damage by hiring people to fill critical positions in this agency left vacant by DOGE.

With a massive search effort underway, some have raised questions about whether cuts to the NWS played a role in the tragedy after it was reported that the two NWS offices mostly closely involved in forecasting and warning about the flooding along the Guadalupe River—Austin-San Antonio and San Angelo—are missing key staff.

The NWS said last month that it would be hiring new meteorologists and specialists to "stabilize" operations after the Trump administration's job cuts. NBC News reported in May that the NWS was scrambling to reassign staffers internally and fill more than 150 positions to cover critical roles. The Associated Press earlier reported that nearly half of NWS offices had vacancy rates of 20 percent or more, with some locations facing even more severe staffing shortages.
Are Donald Trump's NOAA cuts to blame for Texas flood tragedy? What to know

The question is not whether or not the agency was critically damaged by Trump's cuts. It is whether or not the damage was repaired in time to provide warning to the people who died in that flood. That's still being reviewed. Trump's attempt to blame Biden for the flood is a pretty good indicator that Trump knows he messed up. I suspect that the investigation report will have the same transparency that the Epstein papers have.

For the same reasons.

 

[The Barbarian]

I have to wonder if someone from the affiliated church, not at the camp, tried calling the camp (knowing the lack of connectivity at the camp) only (since people don't have phones at the camp) could not get in touch with camp leaders to warn them of the flooding.

As is usual in such disasters, there are many failures, some of which might have reasonably been anticipated and others not. Usually, the lessons learned are applied to prevent it from happening again. Let's pray it is so.

 

[wing2000]

As is usual in such disasters, there are many failures, some of which might have reasonably been anticipated and others not. Usually, the lessons learned are applied to prevent it from happening again. Let's pray it is so.

There was a similar flooding event in 1987 ...and sadly, the lessons were not learned.

 

[essentialsaltes]

FEMA’s response to Texas flood slowed by Noem’s cost controls​

As monstrous floodwaters surged across central Texas late last week, officials at the Federal Emergency Management Agency leapt into action, preparing to deploy critical search and rescue teams and life-saving resources, like they have in countless past disasters.

But almost instantly, FEMA ran into bureaucratic obstacles, four officials inside the agency told CNN.

As CNN has previously reported, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem — whose department oversees FEMA — recently enacted a sweeping rule aimed at cutting spending: Every contract and grant over $100,000 now requires her personal sign-off before any funds can be released.

In essence, they say the order has stripped the agency of much of its autonomy at the very moment its help is needed most.

For example, as central Texas towns were submerged in rising waters, FEMA officials realized they couldn’t pre-position Urban Search and Rescue crews from a network of teams stationed regionally across the country.

Noem didn’t authorize FEMA’s deployment of Urban Search and Rescue teams until Monday, more than 72 hours after the flooding began, multiple sources told CNN.

Texas did request aerial imagery from FEMA to aid search and rescue operations, a source told CNN, but that was delayed as it awaited Noem’s approval for the necessary contract.

FEMA staff have also been answering phones at a disaster call center, where, according to one agency official, callers have faced longer wait times as the agency awaited Noem’s approval for a contract to bring in additional support staff.

“FEMA is shifting from bloated, DC-centric dead weight to a lean, deployable disaster force that empowers state actors to provide relief for their citizens,” [spox] McLaughlin told CNN in a statement.

 

[The Barbarian]

FEMA’s response to Texas flood slowed by Noem’s cost controls

Let's hope we get lucky and see no serious hurricanes this year.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Let's hope we get lucky and see no serious hurricanes this year.

Maybe if there's plenty of money left over, the State of California can get approval for FEMA funds for the January wildfires. But that would take a signature from someone higher up than Noem.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Kerr County officials waited 90 minutes to send emergency alert after requested, dispatch audio shows​

Kerr County's CodeRED emergency system was first introduced in 2014.

At 4:22 a.m. on Friday, as Texas' Hill Country began to flood, a firefighter in Ingram – just upstream from Kerrville – asked the Kerr County Sheriff's Office to alert nearby residents, according to audio obtained by ABC affiliate KSAT. But Kerr County officials took nearly six hours to [fully] heed this call.

"The Guadalupe Schumacher sign is underwater on State Highway 39," the firefighter said in the dispatch audio. "Is there any way we can send a CodeRED out to our Hunt residents, asking them to find higher ground or stay home?"

"Stand by, we have to get that approved with our supervisor," a Kerr County Sheriff's Office dispatcher replied.

The first alert didn't come through Kerr County's CodeRED system until 90 minutes later. Some messages didn't arrive until after 10 a.m.

Records show that the topic of a flood warning system for Kerr County came up in at least 20 different county commissioners' meetings since it was first introduced in 2016 – months before Belew [a commissioner who voted against expanding CodeRED to add some additional FEMA-backed capabilities to hit all cell phones in the area, not just known residents -- however that expansion did occur] joined the Court.

But even after last week's tragic flooding, Belew expressed concern over spending on such a [improved] system: "God only knows what's going to happen, what kind of government waste we might get going into an alert system," he said on Monday's segment.

 

[rjs330]

Trump's people a month ago, were frantically trying to repair the damage by hiring people to fill critical positions in this agency left vacant by DOGE.

With a massive search effort underway, some have raised questions about whether cuts to the NWS played a role in the tragedy after it was reported that the two NWS offices mostly closely involved in forecasting and warning about the flooding along the Guadalupe River—Austin-San Antonio and San Angelo—are missing key staff.

The NWS said last month that it would be hiring new meteorologists and specialists to "stabilize" operations after the Trump administration's job cuts. NBC News reported in May that the NWS was scrambling to reassign staffers internally and fill more than 150 positions to cover critical roles. The Associated Press earlier reported that nearly half of NWS offices had vacancy rates of 20 percent or more, with some locations facing even more severe staffing shortages.
Are Donald Trump's NOAA cuts to blame for Texas flood tragedy? What to know

The question is not whether or not the agency was critically damaged by Trump's cuts. It is whether or not the damage was repaired in time to provide warning to the people who died in that flood. That's still being reviewed. Trump's attempt to blame Biden for the flood is a pretty good indicator that Trump knows he messed up. I suspect that the investigation report will have the same transparency that the Epstein papers have.

For the same reasons.

In this case there were no staffing issues. Everything was fine and nothing Trump did affected anything. The agencies involved said they were staffed.

 

[Say it aint so]

I said " yeah" in answer.

That person is wrong. That person needs to repent for being wrong. Those are two different things.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Officials have yet to explain who did what during critical early hours as deadly floods hit Texas​

Nearly a week after floodwaters swept away more than a hundred lives, Texas officials are facing heated questions over how much was – or was not – done in the early morning hours of Friday as a wall of water raced down the Guadalupe River.

Authorities were pressed again Wednesday when they shared little information about the early hours of the emergency, instead calling attention to their swift response later in the day on July 4.

No official in Kerr County has been able to answer who, if anyone, was in charge of emergency management the night of the flood. An emergency manager is generally someone who oversees local mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery efforts before, during and after an emergency.

 

[The Barbarian]

In this case there were no staffing issues. Everything was fine and nothing Trump did affected anything. The agencies involved said they were staffed.

"Nothing wrong here, folks. Nothing to see. Just move along. Everything is under control."

 

[The Barbarian]

DOGE Cuts Contributed to Texas Flood Impact—Former NOAA Administrator​

DOGE cuts contributed to Texas flood impact—former NOAA administrator

Former NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad said an NWS vacancy could have been why some people didn't receive flood warnings.

www.newsweek.com

NOAA Admin nominee looks to improve warnings after deadly Texas floods​

"There's nothing wrong. And we're going to fix it right away!"

Right.

 

[rjs330]

That person is wrong. That person needs to repent for being wrong. Those are two different things.

Its was asked if Trump needed to repent and I said "yeah".