If we had better diplomacy maybe we could’ve talked them out of a decision to try to fashion fission weapons…oh wait, we did, the Obama era
JCPOA, that Trump walked away from, oops!
The JCPOA had some flaws, both in theory, and in execution.
The issues with the theory: It was basically tantamount to saying "we'll overlook your litany of human rights abuses & your funding of terrorism, and help bolster you economically, just please don't build a nuke...pretty please!"
We pretty much throw away any leverage we have to correct bad behavior via sanctions if the precedent is going to be "Just threaten to to build a nuke, and the EU and US will back off the sanctions and let us keep cutting peoples' heads off"
In terms of execution, the issue was that sites were exempted from inspections, and others were subject to "sunsetting provisions" rather than a "shut it down now!" mandate. And then other ones were
mothballed instead of actually taken down (meaning, allowed to remain in a state where they could be spun back up quickly)
It should have been a more forceful
"The human rights abuses stop today. You WILL dismantle all of the sites ASAP, you will give UN inspectors full unrestricted access to anything they want to see/read/inspect when they watch you dismantle these sites...I want to see an empty patch of dirt when I come back in 3 months. Then we'll talk about unfreezing those assets and getting some sanctions lifted so you can sell your oil again, got it?"
My reference to Cuba was only in response to Pommer's comment on why should have a say in another nation's defense. I did not mean to imply any political or religious connection only that we we did not allow Cuba to have nukes on their soil.
The answers to why one nation would have a say in another nation's defense could be for a few reasons.
1) If they made a security guarantee in exchange for another country voluntarily removing their own standing army as part of a post-conflict deal. (like we did for a period with Japan after WW2)
2) If a country explicitly asks for their help
3) If there's a de facto assumption/expectation that their country will be the one expected to intervene and restore order should that other country go off the rails and start attacking other countries
#3 is the one that would apply to the US with regards to Iran.
If Iran did develop some serious weaponry, and decided to go rogue and start committing attacks against "the great Satan" they see as westernized civilizations, the expectation is going to be that we (the US) be the one to
get in the cage and wrestle the bear.
If Iran decided to go even further than using weapons on Isreal, and said "you know, we never like those infidel Western Europeans either" and started hitting some of them
And it's not as if the ambition isn't there for Iran to do that...
Year | Country | Event/Incident | Perpetrator / Link to Iran | Details / Outcome |
---|
1980–1982 | France | Series of bombings | Iranian intelligence suspected | Multiple dissidents targeted; linked to Iranian operatives. |
1986 | France | Paris bombing campaign | Pro-Iranian groups, likely IRGC-linked | Bombings to pressure France over extraditions and arms deals. |
1991 | France | Assassination of Shapour Bakhtiar | Iranian intelligence operatives | Bakhtiar stabbed and strangled in his home near Paris. |
1992 | Germany | Mykonos restaurant killings (Berlin) | Iranian Ministry of Intelligence, Hezbollah operatives | Four Kurdish men killed; German court implicated top Iranian leadership. |
2012 | Bulgaria | Burgas bus bombing (5 Israeli tourists killed) | Hezbollah, funded/trained by Iran | First EU soil attack with direct link to Iran-backed Hezbollah. |
2015 | Netherlands | Assassination of Ahmad Mola Nissi | Dutch authorities blamed Iran | Netherlands later expelled two Iranian diplomats in protest. |
2017 | Netherlands | Assassination of Iranian dissident Ali Motamed | Dutch authorities blamed Iran | Dutch government publicly accused Iran of ordering the killing. |
2018 | France/Belgium | Foiled bomb plot near Paris | Asadollah Assadi (Iranian diplomat) + operatives | Assadi convicted in Belgium in 2021 — first Iranian diplomat convicted for terrorism in EU. |
So if they got more advanced weaponry, and decided to start using it against France/Germany/Belgium/etc... for the "grave infraction" of harboring a dissident they don't like...
It's overwhelmingly likely that it will be the US & UK that gets called in for help. So by that logic, we do have a vested interest in what kinds weaponry they're cooking up over there if we're going to be the ones expected to step up to the plate should they (likely) end up using those weapons in places outside of their region.