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Large-Scale Ukrainian Attack Targets Air Bases Deep inside Russia

Nithavela

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Some real mask-off moments already in this thread. I suspect we'll see more as the phony concern for Ukrainian casualties and civilians gives way to seething anger over the Russian losses and the feverish speculation over potential Russian retaliation.
It's just bog standard russian propaganda tactics.

Even talking about "retaliation" is propaganda talk. There are no retaliations in a war, just like there are no "retalatory" strikes in a drawn out fight, there is only an exchange of military strikes until one side crumbles or both sides decide to create peace. By saying that Russia will retaliate, one puts Ukraine into the role of aggressor. In truth, this was the answer for years of bombing civilians, and while Russia's "retaliations" strike at energy grids or civilian homes, this was a legitimate military target.

At this point, Moscow really only has the choice of either ramping up their drone strikes, which just means that they will start those drones in a week that would have flown in a month instead. They could start more missiles, but they lost a lot of their means to do so. Again, same problem for Russia of just draining their stockpiles and not increasing the amount of attacks over a longer period. Or they could opt for nukes, but that would turn the entire world against them.

In my opinion, this has increased chances for peace, since Moscow will have less incentive to continue fighting. It's no accident that this attack happened hours before the next round of peace talks.
 
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ozso

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It's just bog standard russian propaganda tactics.

Even talking about "retaliation" is propaganda talk. There are no retaliations in a war, just like there are no "retalatory" strikes in a drawn out fight, there is only an exchange of military strikes until one side crumbles or both sides decide to create peace. By saying that Russia will retaliate, one puts Ukraine into the role of aggressor. In truth, this was the retaliation for years of bombing civilians, and while Russia's "retaliations" strike at energy grids or civilian homes, this was a legitimate military target.

At this point, Moscow really only has the choice of either ramping up their drone strikes, which just means that they will start those drones in a week that would have flown in a month instead. They could start more missiles, but they lost a lot of their means to do so. Again, same problem for Russia of just draining their stockpiles and not increasing the amount of attacks over a longer period. Or they could opt for nukes, but that would turn the entire world against them.

In my opinion, this has increased chances for peace, since Moscow will have less incentive to continue fighting. It's no accident that this attack happened hours before the next round of peace talks.
I hope you're right.
 
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Bradskii

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Surgical, efficient and devastating. No losses in personel and no place in Russia can feel safe anymore, which will increase the need for security and make operations more costly. If one would calculate the ratio of damage (both direct and for opportunity costs now spent on preventing another attack like this that might never materialise) to expended ressources, this might be a contender for the gold medal in recorded history. Militaries all over the world will be revising their security policies. Chapters will be written about this in books about modern warfare.
A simply stunning achievement. And planning started 18 months ago? Barely credible.
 
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Nithavela

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A simply stunning achievement. And planning started 18 months ago? Barely credible.
Remember the "soldier with finger in front of lips indicating silence" campaign from two years ago?

Yeah...
 
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Larniavc

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Any predictions on what Russia will do that could be so much more horrible than what they are already inflicting on Ukraine?
I do find it odd that many people (particularly in America) seem to believe Ukraine has already lost. With Ukraine having reduced Russia's combat power by at least 1/3 it is hard to see that particular point of view.

I don't doubt that films will be made about the recent destruction of those Russian strategic bombers.
 
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Larniavc

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and the Ukrainians who were setting things up inside Russia had set up their temporary HQ next to FSBs headquarters and those people are already back in Ukraine.
I eagerly await a movie based on this!
 
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Nithavela

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I eagerly await a movie based on this!
I think it quite possible that at least some of the statements by Ukraine are meant to mislead. Which is, of course, a legitimate tactic in war.
 
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wing2000

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If I’m remembering my schoolyard etiquette correctly, one needs to bloody the bully’s nose before he stops bothering you. Asking for them to “please be nice” doesn’t seem to work and more drastic measures are taken.
This is that.

Exactly. Hit Putin - repeatedly. He only respects power. Donald doesn't understand.
 
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Bradskii

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Remember the "soldier with finger in front of lips indicating silence" campaign from two years ago?

Yeah...
They could have drones all over Russia. That's quite a bargaining chip to have at any meeting where a cease fire is discussed.

Then again, I'll bet that this has given a lot of people ideas on how to create maximum damage for minimum cost. And minimum risk. You can fly these drones from the other side of the planet. How does anyone defend against this?
 
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wing2000

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They could have drones all over Russia. That's quite a bargaining chip to have at any meeting where a cease fire is discussed.

Then again, I'll bet that this has given a lot of people ideas on how to create maximum damage for minimum cost. And minimum risk. You can fly these drones from the other side of the planet. How does anyone defend against this?

....likely every single trailor within 40 kilometers of every Russian base will have to be searched.
 
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durangodawood

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....Even talking about "retaliation" is propaganda talk. There are no retaliations in a war, just like there are no "retalatory" strikes in a drawn out fight, there is only an exchange of military strikes until one side crumbles or both sides decide to create peace. By saying that Russia will retaliate, one puts Ukraine into the role of aggressor......
This is an excellent point. Im always dismayed by the number of Americans who side with Putin in his bloody ambitions, even if some arent aware theyre doing it.
 
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Hans Blaster

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It is. Face it, despite individual acts of war crime, this has been a fairly "gentlemanly" non-war.
Seriously? Gentlemanly? "non-war"? what nonsense. Just the night before the Ukrainian drone attack on Russia's bomber fleet, Russia launched about 500 long-range drones and missiles at Ukraine, primarily on civilian targets.
A lot of red lines have been crossed, that Russia has ignored, and I don't necessarily mean from Ukraine alone.
A demonstration that Russia was a paper tiger making empty threats.
My guess is that Russian secret services will be investigating who exactly is behind this.
The Ukranian SBU has already said "it was us".
Ukraine will feel Russia's wrath very soon. Others may feel it a little while later.
What is Russia holding back? Nukes? No nation has used nukes in war since their existence was known. The Russian nuclear threat was always an empty one.

As for their conventional reserves, the only part that wasn't severely diminished by the war was long-range bombers and that is no longer the case.
 
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Nithavela

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They could have drones all over Russia. That's quite a bargaining chip to have at any meeting where a cease fire is discussed.

Then again, I'll bet that this has given a lot of people ideas on how to create maximum damage for minimum cost. And minimum risk. You can fly these drones from the other side of the planet. How does anyone defend against this?
Turn off wireless internet.
 
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Larniavc

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this has been a fairly "gentlemanly" non-war.
You have got to be kidding. How can you call what Putin has subjected Ukraine to a ‘fairly gentlemanly non-war’?

Why would you say that? Would you say that to all the families of all the people on both sides who have been killed by one man’s whim?

Calling the Ukraine Russia war that is morally reprehensible which ever way you look at.
 
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John G.

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You have got to be kidding. How can you call what Putin has subjected Ukraine to a ‘fairly gentlemanly non-war’?

There is a reason I used quotes.
If Russia wanted to destroy Ukraine, she would've declared war (actual war), invaded with half a million men, blasted everything in sight demoralising the population, finished it all in 3-4 weeks. Similar to what Medvedev did in Georgia, similar to what the USA did in Iraq (times two), Serbia, etc.
What Russia wanted from Ukraine was very simple but became complicated because of US and NATO intervention, full-scale mobilisation on the Ukrainian side, acts of sabotage, etc.
Now we have the latest provocation which could be taken as a violation of a nuclear treaty (those planes HAD to be there in the open) with consequences too horrible to imagine.
 
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Larniavc

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There is a reason I used quotes.
If Russia wanted to destroy Ukraine, she would've declared war (actual war), invaded with half a million men, blasted everything in sight demoralising the population, finished it all in 3-4 weeks. Similar to what Medvedev did in Georgia, similar to what the USA did in Iraq (times two), Serbia, etc.
What Russia wanted from Ukraine was very simple but became complicated because of US and NATO intervention, full-scale mobilisation on the Ukrainian side, acts of sabotage, etc.
Now we have the latest provocation which could be taken as a violation of a nuclear treaty (those planes HAD to be there in the open) with consequences too horrible to imagine.
Sure, Was it the kindness of grand pa Putin that stopped all that?
 
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Larniavc

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Now we have the latest provocation which could be taken as a violation of a nuclear treaty (those planes HAD to be there in the open) with consequences too horrible to imagine.
Putin won't use nukes. That would be writing his own death warrant; he's too scared of what his associates would inevitably do. He'll probably do what he usually does; targeting civilians.
 
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There is a reason I used quotes.
If Russia wanted to destroy Ukraine, she would've declared war (actual war), invaded with half a million men, blasted everything in sight demoralising the population, finished it all in 3-4 weeks. Similar to what Medvedev did in Georgia, similar to what the USA did in Iraq (times two), Serbia, etc.
What Russia wanted from Ukraine was very simple but became complicated because of US and NATO intervention, full-scale mobilisation on the Ukrainian side, acts of sabotage, etc.
Now we have the latest provocation which could be taken as a violation of a nuclear treaty (those planes HAD to be there in the open) with consequences too horrible to imagine.
Wow. You really have no idea what has been going on the last few years.
 
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Hans Blaster

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There is a reason I used quotes.
If Russia wanted to destroy Ukraine, she would've declared war (actual war),
A declaration does not a war make. The two US wars with Iraq were not "declared" either.
invaded with half a million men, blasted everything in sight demoralising the population, finished it all in 3-4 weeks.
They tried, and they failed. (What makes you think Russia could deploy a bigger invasion force? They looked for a deep/quick penetration to Kyiv, but it failed particularly because the landing at the airport was repelled.) Russia's logistics couldn't handle the force of the size they did send.
Similar to what Medvedev did in Georgia, similar to what the USA did in Iraq (times two), Serbia, etc.
Odd that you mention the Russian invasion of Georgia. That involved about 1/3 the forces of the 2022 Ukraine invasion.
What Russia wanted from Ukraine was very simple but became complicated because of US and NATO intervention, full-scale mobilisation on the Ukrainian side, acts of sabotage, etc.
Ukraine fought back and that cause Russia to fail. Oh noes!
Now we have the latest provocation which could be taken as a violation of a nuclear treaty (those planes HAD to be there in the open) with consequences too horrible to imagine.
What provocation?

Ukraine isn't subject to any strategic arms treaty for their bombers or anyone elses'.
 
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