Let's Track the Economy (with objective empirical data?)

Akita Suggagaki · Dec 15, 2024

Does objective empirical data exist. Well, I think so.

10 sites that help you track the economy

If you're worried about the state of the economy, but you want to learn about it for yourself, we have you covered.

www.cnet.com

12/14/24

GDP Growth	2.80%
Unemployment Rate	4.20%
Inflation Rate CPI	2.70%
Disposable Income	$21,855

Deficit	$624.2 B
Debt	#36.13 T
Federal Funds Interest Rate	4.75%
Trade	$-73.8 B

Job Growth	227,000
Wage Growth	4.60%
Dow	43,828

Landon Caeli · Dec 15, 2024

There's no greater understanding to be discovered by viewing numbers, alone, until you can also understand and prove what causes numbers to change, why, and what kinds of resistance are preventing them from changing.

There are many forces at work in a complex economy, including various types of unsuspecting butterfly effects.

Akita Suggagaki · Dec 15, 2024

Landon Caeli said:
There's no greater understanding to be discovered by viewing numbers, alone, until you can also understand and prove what causes numbers to change, why, and what kinds of resistance are preventing them from changing.

There are many forces at work in a complex economy, including various types of unsuspecting butterfly effects.

Very true. But quite often even objective data is ignored while only feelings are promoted.

ozso · Dec 15, 2024

Akita Suggagaki said:
Very true. But quite often even objective data is ignored while only feelings are promoted.

Feelings generated by experiencing hardship. Should a great number of American citizens experiencing hardship be ignored? Should they be told the hardship they're suffering is just anecdotal?

With the democratic left it's those people in other countries suffering hardship need our care and compassion. Whereas when it comes to American citizens suffering hardship, they callously say the data shows everything is hunky-dory, so the hardship they're suffering is just feelings. Anecdotal nonsense.

Which is what led to Trump regaining the presidency and the republicans gaining house and senate majority.

And instead of learning from that, the democratic left is sticking to it. And so they'll get all upset in a couple of years when they lose more seats in the house and senate, still not accepting real reasons why that happened.

Akita Suggagaki · Dec 16, 2024

ozso said:
Feelings generated by experiencing hardship. Should a great number of American citizens experiencing hardship be ignored? Should they be told the hardship they're suffering is just anecdotal?

With the democratic left it's those people in other countries suffering hardship need our care and compassion. Whereas when it comes to American citizens suffering hardship, they callously say the data shows everything is hunky-dory, so the hardship they're suffering is just feelings. Anecdotal nonsense.

Which is what led to Trump regaining the presidency and the republicans gaining house and senate majority.

And instead of learning from that, the democratic left is sticking to it. And so they'll get all upset in a couple of years when they lose more seats in the house and senate, still not accepting real reasons why that happened.

This OP has nothing to do with partisan talking points. If you want to ignore objective data do not read or participate here.

ozso · Dec 16, 2024

Akita Suggagaki said:
This OP has nothing to do with partisan talking points. If you want to ignore objective data do not read or participate here.

You forgot to say please.

essentialsaltes · Dec 16, 2024

It's hilarious seeing the origin of Critical Republican Theory, where "lived experience" is trumpeted over facts.

RoBo1988 · Dec 16, 2024

Akita Suggagaki said:
Does objective empirical data exist. Well, I think so.

10 sites that help you track the economy

If you're worried about the state of the economy, but you want to learn about it for yourself, we have you covered.

www.cnet.com

12/14/24

GDP Growth 2.80%
Unemployment Rate 4.20%
Inflation Rate CPI 2.70%
Disposable Income $21,855
Deficit $624.2 B
Debt #36.13 T
Federal Funds Interest Rate 4.75%
Trade $-73.8 B
Job Growth 227,000
Wage Growth 4.60%
Dow 43,828

I remember the Democrats using the "Wall Street vs. Main Street" argument to explain that the economy was lousy, when it really wasn't. Does that still apply?

I don't have $20k in disposable income. I haven't had overtime in over 1.5 years. I am still employed but just barely. That's my Main Street.

ozso · Dec 16, 2024

essentialsaltes said:
It's hilarious seeing the origin of Critical Republican Theory, where "lived experience" is trumpeted over facts.

The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. George Orwell, 1984.

rambot · Dec 16, 2024

essentialsaltes said:
It's hilarious seeing the origin of Critical Republican Theory, where "lived experience" is trumpeted over facts.

I'm pretty sure that is the go to for EVERYTHING.

Remember, "it snowed where I live in April. Can't have global warming".
"My second cousin's best friend died after getting the vaccine"
"My life is going well. Those other people just need to get better jobs".

Obviously people are hurting now. But just you wait. It can still get worse; we can have bad economic data AND have people suffering.

Pommer · Dec 16, 2024

ozso said:
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. George Orwell, 1984.

Which US Party fits this best?

ozso · Dec 16, 2024

Pommer said:
Which US Party fits this best?

The one telling us to ignore our personal struggles because the data says they're not real.

essentialsaltes · Dec 16, 2024

ozso said:
The one telling us to ignore our personal struggles because the data says they're not real.

Nobody is saying that. Also, your eyes can see the economic data in OP.

ozso · Dec 16, 2024

essentialsaltes said:
Nobody is saying that. Also, your eyes can see the economic data in OP.

What was posted? Are those numbers good or bad? What do they compare to? In the link? Which source? Should I do a spread sheet of all of them to be convinced by the data that I'm not in a bad situation economically?

Akita Suggagaki · Dec 16, 2024

RoBo1988 said:
I remember the Democrats using the "Wall Street vs. Main Street" argument to explain that the economy was lousy, when it really wasn't.

By what metric do you determine if it was lousy or not? Please show me.

essentialsaltes · Dec 16, 2024

ozso said:
What was posted? Are those numbers good or bad? What do they compare to? In the link? Which source? Should I do a spread sheet of all of them to be convinced by the data that I'm not in a bad situation economically?

This thread is not about your situation and how you feel about it. This thread is about the national economy.

I think the OP's concept is to look at how these numbers change as Trump enacts his MAGA plans. Whether these particular numbers are good or bad is arguable, but we'll objectively be able to determine whether they are getting better or worse.

essentialsaltes · Dec 16, 2024

We can also test hypotheses.

For instance in 2020:

President Donald Trump on Thursday cast his election battle with Joe Biden as a fight for the future of the U.S. economy, reiterating claims that the stock market would tank and a depression would ensue if the his Democratic rival wins in November.

“If Biden gets in, this market’s going to crash,” Trump asserted in an interview on Fox Business Network with host Maria Bartiromo. Invoking Biden’s tax plans, Trump also claimed that the former vice president would “tax this country into a depression like in 1929.”

On that day, the DOW was 27,976.84. Per the OP, it has grown 56.7% (and there has been no depression).

--

What I know about economics fits in a hat, but I'll hypothesize:

If Trump institutes 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico (relatively soon and they remain in place), then the inflation number will not get under 2% (the usual target from people who know more about economics than I do), except in the event of a general recession/depression.

ozso · Dec 16, 2024

essentialsaltes said:
This thread is not about your situation and how you feel about it. This thread is about the national economy.

I think the OP's concept is to look at how these numbers change as Trump enacts his MAGA plans. Whether these particular numbers are good or bad is arguable, but we'll objectively be able to determine whether they are getting better or worse.

So wait a few months before getting back to this thread to see who gets to say "told you so"?

Pommer · Dec 16, 2024

ozso said:
The one telling us to ignore our personal struggles because the data says they're not real.

Those darned Greens!

essentialsaltes · Dec 16, 2024

ozso said:
So wait a few months before getting back to this thread to see who gets to say "told you so"?

Exactly, if liberals start going around saying "Oh, I'm filled with such sadness and dread at how terrible Donald's economy is; my nonbinary second offspring was laid off from þex job at the pride flag factory and my hydroponic cannabis operation is subject to Canada's trade embargo." We'll have the economic data to determine how the nation as a whole is doing.

Let's Track the Economy (with objective empirical data?)

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