Even if there was a plan to grant amnesty, they would still have to meet the same eligibility requirements for Social Security as everyone else. That means working and paying into SS for at least 10 years.
My analysis is just stating facts about the impact of amnesty on social security. I do not know the potential numbers, ages, or incomes of the group that will most likely have amnesty. However, I do state some factors to consider when it comes to social security solvency.
There are lots of undocumented working in the USA for years. Could they receive benefits? "Undocumented immigrants are not “destroying” Social Security, either, as Trump suggested. Instead, there is evidence that they “actually improve Social Security’s bottom line,”
AARP I do not trust AARP or the actuaries because I am uncertain how they figure the impact.
I can say that if the law granting amnesty included benefits for work already done, then they could recoup monies that were paid in the past. A smart congress might allow that exception only for ones that filed income tax returns.
I would argue too that amnesty will affect social security because it favors giving a far higher percent to those that work less. "90% of the first
$1,115 of average indexed monthly earnings (AIME), plus 32% of AIME over $1,115 through $6,721, plus 15% of AIME over $6,721"
Here is an example. Suppose you get amnesty at age 50. Ok, so you work the next 15 years and make 3,000 a month. That would mean 540,000 in lifetime earnings and an average of 1285 a month because the other 20 years are counted as zeroes. The check would be 90% of the first 1115 and 32% of 170 dollars. So the high payout rate redistributes money to those who work far less in years, or who actually have less income. The new legal immigrant would get around 1075 a month, whereas the person who worked 35 years would get around 90% of the first 1115, and then 32% of roughly 23,000/12. which equals to about 1700 a month. Yes, you work 2.3 times more and get just 600 more a month. Social security is a system for redistribution because of the way benefits are calculated against those that work more years. Sadly if you worked 50 years, the top 35 years are the only ones that would count. Anyone who works fewer years drains the system because of SS formulas. The drain becomes more prominent too because they will likely be eligible for Medicaid, disability or reduced Medicare costs as well as snap or other transfer payments. Lastly, whites actually die earlier on average than Hispanics. So this again, is a drain on the system that likely is not being taken into account.
If you learn anything else about retirement, the best deal you can get unless you find a pension is to go overseas to work and gain a social security benefit from an EU or other rich Western nation. In Germany for instance just 5 years will get you something and you do not have to be a citizen.
