Although Trump asserts that Crime Rates are Going Up, the National Numbers Contradict Him

Stephen3141 · Aug 14, 2024

Trump says Atlanta is like a ‘killing field.’ Data shows violent crime is dropping

New preliminary data shows violent crime is declining in Atlanta even as former President Donald Trump claims it is out of control.

www.wabe.org

Christians should be looking at the actual numbers, in crime reports
from around the country. And NOT listening to emotional speeches about
skyrocketting crime rates, that come from political candidates or
radio talk show hosts.

HTacianas · Aug 14, 2024

Stephen3141 said:
Trump says Atlanta is like a ‘killing field.’ Data shows violent crime is dropping

New preliminary data shows violent crime is declining in Atlanta even as former President Donald Trump claims it is out of control.

www.wabe.org

Christians should be looking at the actual numbers, in crime reports
from around the country. And NOT listening to emotional speeches about
skyrocketting crime rates, that come from political candidates or
radio talk show hosts.

"The Major Cities Chiefs Association recently found that the city did report slightly more homicides and rapes in the first six months of 2024, compared to the same time frame last year."

That would mean that crime rates in Atlanta are going up.

Laodicean60 · Aug 14, 2024

HTacianas said:
"The Major Cities Chiefs Association recently found that the city did report slightly more homicides and rapes in the first six months of 2024, compared to the same time frame last year."

That would mean that crime rates in Atlanta are going up.

The problem is that the data is not being reported by many cities.

"The gap includes the nation’s two largest cities by population, New York City and Los Angeles, as well as most agencies in five of the six most populous states: California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Florida. (See if your local police reported.)

Download the agency participation data used in this piece.In 2021, the FBI retired its nearly century-old national crime data collection program, the Summary Reporting System used by the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program. The agency switched to a new system, the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS), which gathers more specific information on each incident. Even though the FBI announced the transition years ago and the federal government spent hundreds of millions of dollars to help local police make the switch, about 7,000 of the nation’s 18,000 law enforcement agencies did not successfully send crime data to the voluntary program last year.

What Can FBI Data Say About Crime in 2021? It’s Too Unreliable to Tell

The transition to a new data system creates huge gaps in national crime stats sure to be exploited by politicians in this election year.

www.themarshallproject.org

JimR-OCDS · Aug 14, 2024

US stats show violent crime dramatically falling, so why is there a rising clash with perception?

In his State of the Union address, President Joe Biden boasted that violent crime is at a 50-years low. But the perception of crime is clashing with the statistics.

abcnews.go.com

Like inflation which Biden says is low, Americans experience an increase in inflation and crime as
the article shows.

What Americans experience doesn't match the statistics being reported.

Heck, there's a shooting reported every morning in the Boston area on the local news. I don't recall
that happening before.

The Barbarian · Aug 14, 2024

JimR-OCDS said:
Like inflation which Biden says is low, Americans experience an increase in inflation and crime as
the article shows.

Annual US inflation falls to 3-year low, clearing the way for the Fed to begin cutting rates

WASHINGTON (AP) — Year-over-year inflation reached its lowest level in more than three years in July, the latest sign that the worst price spike in four decades is fading and setting up the Federal Reserve for an interest rate cut in September.

Wednesday's report from the Labor Department showed that consumer prices rose just 0.2% from June to July after dropping slightly the previous month for the first time in four years. Measured from a year earlier, prices rose 2.9%, down from 3% in June. It was the mildest year-over-year inflation figure since March 2021.

MSN

www.msn.com

By the numbers: An Axios analysis of data from the Major Cities Chiefs Association found an overall 6% decline in violent crime among 69 cities during the first six months of 2024 compared to the same period last year.

54 of the 69 major cities in the report saw drops in violent crime — defined as homicide, rape, robbery and aggravated assault — in the first half of 2024, according to the Axios review.
Columbus, Ohio, experienced the largest percentage decline in violent crime in the nation, with a massive 41% drop so far in 2024. Omaha, Nebraska, was second with a 30% decrease.
Miami and Washington, D.C., so far, have seen 29% declines in violent crime.
Austin, Texas, saw a 28% drop, followed by New Orleans with a 26% decrease. Both cities have been under fire for rising crime rates in recent years.

The intrigue: The Axios review also found that the number of homicides in the 69 reported cities fell by more than 17% during the first half of 2024 compared to the last period last year.

MSN

www.msn.com

"The facts don't matter!"

Well, yes, they do. And there's a reason that Trump's people want you to think that they don't. This kind of denial is what undermining faith in democracy is about.

JimR-OCDS · Aug 15, 2024

The Barbarian said:
Annual US inflation falls to 3-year low, clearing the way for the Fed to begin cutting rates
WASHINGTON (AP) — Year-over-year inflation reached its lowest level in more than three years in July, the latest sign that the worst price spike in four decades is fading and setting up the Federal Reserve for an interest rate cut in September.

Wednesday's report from the Labor Department showed that consumer prices rose just 0.2% from June to July after dropping slightly the previous month for the first time in four years. Measured from a year earlier, prices rose 2.9%, down from 3% in June. It was the mildest year-over-year inflation figure since March 2021.

MSN

www.msn.com

By the numbers: An Axios analysis of data from the Major Cities Chiefs Association found an overall 6% decline in violent crime among 69 cities during the first six months of 2024 compared to the same period last year.

54 of the 69 major cities in the report saw drops in violent crime — defined as homicide, rape, robbery and aggravated assault — in the first half of 2024, according to the Axios review.

Columbus, Ohio, experienced the largest percentage decline in violent crime in the nation, with a massive 41% drop so far in 2024. Omaha, Nebraska, was second with a 30% decrease.

Miami and Washington, D.C., so far, have seen 29% declines in violent crime.

Austin, Texas, saw a 28% drop, followed by New Orleans with a 26% decrease. Both cities have been under fire for rising crime rates in recent years.

The intrigue: The Axios review also found that the number of homicides in the 69 reported cities fell by more than 17% during the first half of 2024 compared to the last period last year.

MSN

www.msn.com

"The facts don't matter!"

Well, yes, they do. And there's a reason that Trump's people want you to think that they don't. This kind of denial is what undermining faith in democracy is about.

The data provided doesn't match the experience Americans are going through which is the point. Heck, I do the food
shopping and my grocery bill has been at least double what it was two years ago.

Say inflation is down all you want, but Americans feel that it isn't so.

The Barbarian · Aug 15, 2024

JimR-OCDS said:
The data provided doesn't match the experience Americans are going through which is the point.

The point is that reality matters. What Americans are going though, is a more robust recovery from the pandemic than other nations:

The US economy is doing way better than the rest of the rich world

The US is growing faster and slowing inflation quicker than many other wealthy countries, even though Americans are still hurting from high prices.

www.businessinsider.com

And it's not just a recent thing. From 2023;

Why the US economy is doing so much better than the rest of the world

It’s remarkable given economists were expecting 1.5% annualized GDP growth last quarter. It’s even more remarkable considering a year ago they were all but certain there’d be a recession by now and the economy would grow at a meager 0.2% rate.

For all those big swings and misses, you probably have yourself to thank. That’s because consumer spending, which accounts for the biggest part of US GDP, has been relentless, even in the face of the highest interest rates in 23 years.

But what’s perhaps most remarkable about the US economic growth rate is how much it towers over similarly sized advanced economies.
For instance:
The combined GDP of the 20 countries that use the euro grew at an annualized rate of just 0.1% in the third quarter of last year
The UK is growing at a 0.2% annualized rate, according to the latest GDP estimate from November
Japan’s economy shrank by 2.1% in the third quarter of 2023 compared to a year prior

So yeah, prettaaay good indeed.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/26/economy/us-gdp-other-countries/index.html

JimR-OCDS said:
Heck, I do the food
shopping and my grocery bill has been at least double what it was two years ago.

It's a challenge. You see, a lot of companies tried to pull shrinkflation on us. Same price, smaller package. I watch for it, and those who try it, no longer get my money. So my bill hasn't changed as much.

I get my gas, and a lot of staples at Costco, where it hasn't gone up so much.

It's harder, post pandemic, but you can take some comfort in knowing that we're doing much better than most nations. It's not entirely due to Biden, but he helped.

Laodicean60 · Aug 15, 2024

JimR-OCDS said:
The data provided doesn't match the experience Americans are going through which is the point

My wife was complaining about the price of tortillas at our local grocery so I know prices are still elevated. I noticed it the other day when I bought a bag of rock salt that was $4 a bag for several years and now it's about $6 a bag. I have a feeling inflation is going to fluctuate because of whats happening around the world.

"Area of largest expenditure increase Food (12.7%)"

The Average American Household Budget | Bankrate

The average U.S. household spends more than $70,000 on housing, meals, transportation, health care and more. How does your household compare?

www.bankrate.com

Yarddog · Aug 15, 2024

JimR-OCDS said:
The data provided doesn't match the experience Americans are going through which is the point. Heck, I do the food
shopping and my grocery bill has been at least double what it was two years ago.

Say inflation is down all you want, but Americans feel that it isn't so.

The facts matter more than what some people feel because the facts show that those people's feelings are wrong. When they have a person in power telling them lies they allow those lies to negatively effect them.

But Jesus tells us that the truth matters. Scripture tells us that those liars will answer for their lies.

Laodicean60 · Aug 15, 2024

Yarddog said:
The facts matter more than what some people feel because the facts show that those people's feelings are wrong.

It depends on where you get your facts. You do know they use psychology as a tool for economics. During the GFC Bernakie in 2007 was telling everyone nothing to worry about until it became blatantly obvious in 2008.

The Barbarian · Aug 15, 2024

Laodicean60 said:
It depends on where you get your facts.

There actually aren't such things as "alternative facts." That's Kelly Conway, trying to find a nice way to describe lies.

Vambram · Aug 15, 2024

Most Americans get their facts about inflation based upon how much inflation has continued to hit their budgets month after month after month as well as year after year after year. The rich elites establishment people just don't understand what it's like to live on a limited set budget.
As for the rising crime rates, all Americans probably believe what is facts and what is fiction based upon what they see, hear, and experience within their local community, their city, and their state.

Adam56 · Aug 15, 2024

If u factor out 13% of the population (we all know what this means), then I bet crime rates are indeed going up.

The Barbarian · Aug 15, 2024

Vambram said:
As for the rising crime rates,

Well, that's a testable assumption...

That's the reality.

Vambram said:
all Americans probably believe what is facts and what is fiction based upon what they see, hear, and experience within their local community, their city, and their state.

Fox News, for example. But as you see, the reality is not what Fox wants you to believe.

Adam56 said:
If u factor out 13% of the population (we all know what this means), then I bet crime rates are indeed going up.

If you mean illegal immigrants, they contribute to the lower crime rate, being less likely to commit violent crime or property crime than are native-born Americans. But that's not the whole story.

Anyway, it's pretty clear that those who say "I don't care about the facts, I know they are all lying!" aren't going to let reality change them.

Adam56 · Aug 15, 2024

The Barbarian said:
If you mean illegal immigrants,

the 13% doesn’t refer to illegal immigrants.

Laodicean60 · Aug 15, 2024

The Barbarian said:
There actually aren't such things as "alternative facts." That's Kelly Conway, trying to find a nice way to describe lies.

Many here have touted the unemployment numbers as a strength of the economy for so long as fact using the MS media but did they tell how many people are having to take on part-time jobs or even two full-time jobs to pay bills? This is psychological manipulation.

The Barbarian · Aug 15, 2024

Laodicean60 said:
Many here have touted the unemployment numbers as a strength of the economy for so long as fact using the MS media but did they tell how many people are having to take on part-time jobs or even two full-time jobs to pay bills? This is psychological manipulation.

The number of Americans applying for jobless benefits continued falling this month, according to new data.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor released data showing the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits last week dropped to 227,000, which was a decline of 7,000 compared to the previous week.

According to the data, 1.86 million Americans are collecting jobless benefits for the week ending on August 3. The Labor Department report also showed that the four-week average for unemployment claims decreased by 4,500 to 236,500.

Number of Americans applying for jobless benefits continues falling

For the week ending on August 3, there were 1.86 million Americans collecting jobless benefits.

www.newsweek.com

What is your data on more people taking more than one job?

Gregory Thompson · Aug 15, 2024

One might say he lies like it's his native tongue.

The Barbarian · Aug 15, 2024

Adam56 said:
the 13% doesn’t refer to illegal immigrants.

I'm not sure that you could show black people are less likely to commit crimes than other people. It is true that white people are more likely to commit crimes against black people than random selection of victims would indicate, but there are a number of possible explanations for this.

The Barbarian · Aug 15, 2024

Gregory Thompson said:
One might say he lies like it's his native tongue.

I don't think he lies. I'm just curious about the data.

Although Trump asserts that Crime Rates are Going Up, the National Numbers Contradict Him

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