Is This Really A Difficult Question?

mark46 · Jul 9, 2024

Would Biden or Harris get a high turnout of blacks, youth and suburban women in PA, MI and WI? Biden or Harris?
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I suspect that a significant number of blacks, youth and suburban women will stay home if Biden is at the top of the ticket. This will make it more likely that the Republicans will win the House and the presidency. I focus on the 3 key states. If one candidate wins these three, that candidate would likely win the presidency.

HTacianas · Jul 9, 2024

mark46 said:
Would Biden or Harris get a high turnout of blacks, youth and suburban women in PA, MI and WI? Biden or Harris?
============
I suspect that a significant number of blacks, youth and suburban women will stay home if Biden is at the top of the ticket. This will make it more likely that the Republicans will win the House and the presidency. I focus on the 3 key states. If one candidate wins these three, that candidate would likely win the presidency.

I'm thinking a lot of Dems will stay home this time. The never-Trumpers aren't going to vote Trump but they won't vote Biden either.

Reasonably Sane · Jul 14, 2024

mark46 said:
Would Biden or Harris get a high turnout of blacks, youth and suburban women in PA, MI and WI? Biden or Harris?
============
I suspect that a significant number of blacks, youth and suburban women will stay home if Biden is at the top of the ticket. This will make it more likely that the Republicans will win the House and the presidency. I focus on the 3 key states. If one candidate wins these three, that candidate would likely win the presidency.

If they require ID to vote and require in-person voting, with only those that request absentee ballots voting "by mail", this will be very different than the last election.

BTW, in my commonwealth, Kentucky, when my wife and I needed to get absentee ballots, we were required to explain why we needed them. They take voting integrity pretty seriously hear. Maybe that is why it is so overwhelmingly Republican. (the governor is Democrat, but any veto is pretty easily overriden by the huge R majority in the state legislature).

mark46 · Jul 14, 2024

Reasonably Sane said:
If they require ID to vote and require in-person voting, with only those that request absentee ballots voting "by mail", this will be very different than the last election.

BTW, in my commonwealth, Kentucky, when my wife and I needed to get absentee ballots, we were required to explain why we needed them. They take voting integrity pretty seriously hear. Maybe that is why it is so overwhelmingly Republican. (the governor is Democrat, but any veto is pretty easily overriden by the huge R majority in the state legislature).

So, Kentucky is SOOO Republican that you elected a Democratic governor.

What you are really saying is that your districts have been so gerrymandered that Republicans control the state legislature even without a majority of the voters supporting them.

Reasonably Sane · Jul 14, 2024

mark46 said:
So, Kentucky is SOOO Republican that you elected a Democratic governor. What you are really saying is that your districts have been so gerrymandered that Republicans control the state legislature even without a majority of the voters supporting them.

Actually, the democrat governor situation is complicated. And no, it's not gerrymandering. It's the big blue city choosing the Governor.

mark46 · Jul 14, 2024

Reasonably Sane said:
Actually, the democrat governor situation is complicated. And no, it's not gerrymandering. It's the big blue city choosing the Governor.

How many voters in the big blue city and how many state reps?

How many voters outside the big blue city and how many state reps?

For city representation, divide the number of state reps from the city by the number of voters.

For out-of-city representation, divide the number of state reps from outside the city by out-of-city population.

If the numbers are approximately equal, then there is no gerrymandering in favor of out-of-city voters.

mark46 · Jul 14, 2024

Reasonably Sane said:
Actually, the democrat governor situation is complicated. And no, it's not gerrymandering. It's the big blue city choosing the Governor.

So, the state has a majority of Democratic voters.

And this majority control fewer than 20% of the seats in the legislature.

This is the very example of gerrymandering. [If folks need to review the court cases and underlying date, just google Kentucky gerrymandering]

Hans Blaster · Jul 14, 2024

mark46 said:
So, the state has a majority of Democratic voters.

It doesn't actually. Other than governor Bashear, they have voted for Republicans in statewide elections over and over and over.

mark46 said:
And this majority control fewer than 20% of the seats in the legislature.

This is the very example of gerrymandering. [If folks need to review the court cases and underlying date, just google Kentucky gerrymandering]

I would not doubt that the KY GOP has used its majority in the legislature to amplify its majority with gerrymandering as it did especially in NC and Wis.

The other poster is just a bit confused about how voting works with his "cities pick the governor" notion. It is a majority of voters where ever they come from within the state that select statewide offices.

mark46 · Jul 14, 2024

Hans Blaster said:
It doesn't actually. Other than governor Bashear, they have voted for Republicans in statewide elections over and over and over.

I would not doubt that the KY GOP has used its majority in the legislature to amplify its majority with gerrymandering as it did especially in NC and Wis.

The other poster is just a bit confused about how voting works with his "cities pick the governor" notion. It is a majority of voters where ever they come from within the state that select statewide offices.

https://www.kentucky.gov/Pages/Activity-stream.aspx?n=SOS&prId=295

This shows a majority of Democratic voters. Pew has the registration almost even. In any case, it took and takes considerable gerrymandering to give the Republicans a supermajority in the legislature. The state Supreme court has approved the gerrymandering. The US Supreme Court seems unlikely to overturn.

https://www.kentucky.gov/Pages/Activity-stream.aspx?n=SOS&prId=295

Reasonably Sane · Jul 14, 2024

mark46 said:
So, the state has a majority of Democratic voters.

And this majority control fewer than 20% of the seats in the legislature.

This is the very example of gerrymandering. [If folks need to review the court cases and underlying date, just google Kentucky gerrymandering]

No. The problem is that the R's presented a weak candidate, and the last R candidate was so hated by the teachers that even my conservative friends that are related to public schools voted against him. That's my last word on it, at least in this thread. It's off topic.

mark46 · Jul 14, 2024

Reasonably Sane said:
No. The problem is that the R's presented a weak candidate, and the last R candidate was so hated by the teachers that even my conservative friends that are related to public schools voted against him. That's my last word on it, at least in this thread. It's off topic.

Q1) What is the Republican percentage of voters in the state?

Q2) What is the Republican percentage of state legislators?

We can stop now. Republicans have about 50% of the number of voters and 80% of the state legislators. Your state Supreme Court says that this is legal. So be it.

Reasonably Sane · Jul 14, 2024

mark46 said:
Q1) What is the Republican percentage of voters in the state?

Q2) What is the Republican percentage of state legislators?

We can stop now. Republicans have about 50% of the number of voters and 80% of the state legislators. Your state Supreme Court says that this is legal. So be it.

I'll just throw this out as a generic statement: Just because someone registered as a member of one party, 10, 20 or 40 years ago doesn't mean they didn't switch parties without actually changing their "official" party affiliation. I moved here from Seattle 13 years ago and I'm amazed how often that happens here. Just sayin...

Hans Blaster · Jul 14, 2024

mark46 said:
https://www.kentucky.gov/Pages/Activity-stream.aspx?n=SOS&prId=295

This shows a majority of Democratic voters. Pew has the registration almost even. In any case, it took and takes considerable gerrymandering to give the Republicans a supermajority in the legislature. The state Supreme court has approved the gerrymandering. The US Supreme Court seems unlikely to overturn.

https://www.kentucky.gov/Pages/Activity-stream.aspx?n=SOS&prId=295

How do you gerrymander a statewide election?

I have heard the nutty conspiracy claims from Democrats after "Dem reg. majority" rural counties voted Republican over and over again. I think there are a lot of conservative democrats who mostly vote republican and have never reregistered.

mark46 · Jul 14, 2024

Hans Blaster said:
How do you gerrymander a statewide election?

I have heard the nutty conspiracy claims from Democrats after "Dem reg. majority" rural counties voted Republican over and over again. I think there are a lot of conservative democrats who mostly vote republican and have never reregistered.

???
An election isn't gerrymandered. District lines are gerrymandered.

If a state has approximately 50% of the voters voting Democratic and 50% voting Repulblican, one would expect the governorship race to be close and for say the 100 districts to be split approximately evenly.

Ace777 · Jul 21, 2024

mark46 said:
Would Biden or Harris get a high turnout of blacks, youth and suburban women in PA, MI and WI? Biden or Harris?

No one seems to want to talk about Harriet Beecher Stowe's 1852 novel Uncle Tom's Cabin. Even in the business world if you want to get promoted into management that may require you to turn against your friends and fellow employees. For me I would rather not be promoted if I can not serve the best interest of the people. I do not think it has to be them or us. I think everyone can be a winner and everyone's best interests can be adhered to. There is a book, Dennis Waitley The Double Win, that really had an impression on me when I read it.

Hans Blaster · Jul 21, 2024

Ace777 said:
No one seems to want to talk about Harriet Beecher Stowe's 1852 novel Uncle Tom's Cabin.

This is not HS english lit class.

Ace777 said:
Even in the business world if you want to get promoted into management that may require you to turn against your friends and fellow employees. For me I would rather not be promoted if I can not serve the best interest of the people. I do not think it has to be them or us. I think everyone can be a winner and everyone's best interests can be adhered to. There is a book, Dennis Waitley The Double Win, that really had an impression on me when I read it.

What has this to do with the relative strength of Biden or Harris in swing state Black voter turn out? You just swerved wildly into a field at this point.

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