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Question: Why are more Democrats than Republicans choosing not to run for re election if their party is united?
- Thread starter Always in His Presence
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That is 61 Democrats choosing not to run for reelection in just two years. That is twice as many as the previous two years. Why is the Biden Administration bleeding so many members of Congress.
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essentialsaltes
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Well, we would have to look at all their reasons and circumstances for doing so. For instance, the replacement for the late Senator Feinstein was only appointed as a 'caretaker', with the seat coming open for election in November.
Others are seeking to move from the House to the Senate, and considerably more Democrats than Republicans are doing so:
So that gives a net difference of 11 more Democrats than Republicans with reasons for not running that don't involve questions of party unity.
Others are seeking to move from the House to the Senate, and considerably more Democrats than Republicans are doing so:
Incumbents seeking other offices
U.S. House members seeking a seat in the U.S. Senate
See also: United States House of Representatives elections, 2024-
9 Democratic members of the U.S. House -
3 Republican members of the U.S. House
U.S. House members seeking another office
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2 Democratic member of the U.S. House
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1 Republican member of the U.S. House
Incumbents retiring from public office
See also: United States Senate elections, 2024-
5 Democrats
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1 Republican
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1 Independent
So that gives a net difference of 11 more Democrats than Republicans with reasons for not running that don't involve questions of party unity.
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Eight United States Senators are not seeking re-election to their U.S. Senate seats (not including those who left office early):
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5 Democrats
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2 Republicans
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1 Independent
Incumbents retiring from public office
See also: United States Senate elections, 2024-
5 Democrats
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1 Republican
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1 Independent
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essentialsaltes
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We have already discussed the 5 Democrats.
They are the placeholder, and ages 73, 76, 77 and 80.
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essentialsaltes
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The situation in the House is much the same. If you add the ages of Jake LaTurner [R-36] and Mike Gallagher [R-40], there are 3 retiring Democrats older than that. Topping the list, Grace Napolitano at 87.
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No - you didn't mention it in this thread - but when you do - include the 24 House Democrats leaving compared to the 19
yeah, that's about it - twice as many Democrats leaving as Republicans. Doesn't exactly demonstrate solidarity.
You both should get a thread about it - like I did so I did not derail the one by @essentialsaltes - wondering if you will extend the same courtesy?
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Type in
List of U.S. Congress incumbents who are not running for re-election in 2024
In the search bar. It's there
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Hans Blaster
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OK, let's talk about the House. I'm using the list of retirements on the Wikipedia page on the elections:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections
25 total Democrats, 20 total Republicans (This list does not include those who "retired" before the end of the term, including the one who resigned *yesterday*.)
We can break them down in to two basic subgroup: Those retiring to run for a different office in 2024/5 and those just retiring.
7 Republican are running for other office, 12 Democrats are retire to run for other office. (I am including those who have already lost primaries but already gave up the chance to run for the House this year.)
This leaves 13 "straight retirements" for non-electoral reasons from each party.
We could take another slice at the data and look at a few "edge-cases". For example, 3 Democrats were redistricted (in NC) into very "red" districts, two chose not to run and lose and the third is running for other office. (A redrawing of the districts in Alabama put two Republicans into the same district, but they are running against each other in the primary rather than one of them "retire".)
Another modification to take account of is that the list contains non-voting territorial representatives. (1 GOP running for higher office, one Dem just retiring.) This is probably the origin of the difference in the totals relative to ballotopedia.
If we remove *both* categories we have for the 50 states:
22 Democrats retiring, 10 without future political goals (add the two redistricted members back if you like)
19 Republicans, 13 without future political goals.
Either way it is pretty close and we are at the mercy of small number statistics.
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Pommer
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(Since I’m loath to do the footwork myself)…How many of each party are from “safe districts”, (districts that will likely stay red (or blue))?
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Nithavela
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List of U.S. Congress incumbents who are not running for re-election in 2024
Ballotpedia: The Encyclopedia of American Politics
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