Europe Faces a Cold Winter Without Russian Oil

dqhall · Dec 6, 2022

Russia rejected a European and G7 offer to buy Russian oil for $60/barrel. Russia decided they should not sell any oil for $60/barrel. Currently Russia is selling oil to China, India and Turkey who are not taking part in the oil price cap boycott. The cost of shipping oil by tankers has risen as oil shipping routes have lengthened during the Ukrainian conflict.
Russia rejects $60-a-barrel cap on its oil, warns of cutoffs

There is news of an Arctic air mass moving into Europe where they are already affected by high energy prices. Temperatures in Oslo, Norway are expected to remain in the twenties and teens (Fahrenheit) this week.
Europe Faces Stress Test As Arctic Blast Drives Surge In Power Demand | OilPrice.com

Whyayeman · Dec 6, 2022

It is the cost of natural gas, not crude oil, which will be the decider. As Germany has apparently stocked up on natural gas reserves and claims to be secure for the winter months it may not work out too badly.

The UK is not really dependent on Russian supplies, having North Sea gas and oil on its doorstep. Some utilities have reported significant reductions in consumption - much more than can be accounted for by recent mild weather.

The price cap will have some effect. I doubt if the needs of India and China will be sufficient for Russian overproduction to be mopped up; the $60 per barrel price tag may not go up significantly.

Homeowner · Dec 6, 2022

Surprising how big % the UK is getting from wind. From the article...

Germany’s wind power generation has started to rebound, and so has the wind power supply in the UK. On Sunday, December 4, wind generated 36.1% of British electricity, followed by gas at 29.2% and nuclear at 15.4%, National Grid ESO said on Monday.

Don't Panic · Dec 6, 2022

dqhall said:
Russia rejected a European and G7 offer to buy Russian oil for $60/barrel. Russia decided they should not sell any oil for $60/barrel. Currently Russia is selling oil to China, India and Turkey who are not taking part in the oil price cap boycott. The cost of shipping oil by tankers has risen as oil shipping routes have lengthened during the Ukrainian conflict.
Russia rejects $60-a-barrel cap on its oil, warns of cutoffs

There is news of an Arctic air mass moving into Europe where they are already affected by high energy prices. Temperatures in Oslo, Norway are expected to remain in the twenties and teens (Fahrenheit) this week.
Europe Faces Stress Test As Arctic Blast Drives Surge In Power Demand | OilPrice.com

The $60 cap has nothing to do with heating oil prices in Europe as the decision was made long ago to stop importing oil from Russia, The price cap refers to the maximum contract price that can be charged for the oil for shipment by eu vessels or insurers. In other words the max price Russia can charge for Lloyds to be able to insure the vessel or shipment.
The second point is just the standard forecast for below average temps for a few weeks. Since Europe has had an extended warm spell this fall, heating stocks are in now shortage.

dqhall · Dec 6, 2022

Don't Panic said:
The $60 cap has nothing to do with heating oil prices in Europe as the decision was made long ago to stop importing oil from Russia, The price cap refers to the maximum contract price that can be charged for the oil for shipment by eu vessels or insurers. In other words the max price Russia can charge for Lloyds to be able to insure the vessel or shipment.
The second point is just the standard forecast for below average temps for a few weeks. Since Europe has had an extended warm spell this fall, heating stocks are in now shortage.

The EU may continue to import refined petroleum products from Russia such as heating oil, kerosene, jet fuel, diesel and gasoline until Feb. 5. They can not longer import Russian crude oil unless it is $60/barrel. They may import Iraqi or Saudi oil even though it is more expensive.

The cold weather is a “stress test“ to see if they stored enough fuel for winter, or how much they will have to pay for emergency restocking.

dqhall · Dec 6, 2022

Homeowner said:
Surprising how big % the UK is getting from wind. From the article...

Germany’s wind power generation has started to rebound, and so has the wind power supply in the UK. On Sunday, December 4, wind generated 36.1% of British electricity, followed by gas at 29.2% and nuclear at 15.4%, National Grid ESO said on Monday.

Generally a little more than 50% of Britain’s electricity is generated from natural gas and coal at night. This is a real time report of their power generation sources and percentages. The grid is constantly changing as the sun does not shine on the solar cells at night. During the day, the carbon emissions may be lower.
National Grid: Live

Whyayeman · Dec 6, 2022

Don't Panic said:
The second point is just the standard forecast for below average temps for a few weeks. Since Europe has had an extended warm spell this fall, heating stocks are in now shortage.

Not so. The figure for November has been reported by utility companies to be 10%-15% below the figure for October. both months have been exceptionally warm. The companies put the drop down to the great efforts to reduce domestic consumption by families worried by the increases in cost. Thermostats have been turned down, lights switched off.

In November, Europe’s natural gas demand was 24% lower than the five-year average for the month, largely due to reduced industrial demand amid high prices.

European Gas Consumption Is 24% Below The Five-Year Average

Demand destruction is clearly underway in Europe, with November’s gas consumption 24% below the five-year average

finance.yahoo.com

Nithavela · Dec 6, 2022

Whyayeman said:
Not so. The figure for November has been reported by utility companies to be 10%-15% below the figure for October. both months have been exceptionally warm. The companies put the drop down to the great efforts to reduce domestic consumption by families worried by the increases in cost. Thermostats have been turned down, lights switched off.

In November, Europe’s natural gas demand was 24% lower than the five-year average for the month, largely due to reduced industrial demand amid high prices.

European Gas Consumption Is 24% Below The Five-Year Average

Demand destruction is clearly underway in Europe, with November’s gas consumption 24% below the five-year average

finance.yahoo.com

Speaking from only our personal home, we have turned the house temperature down about two degrees celsius.

Since starting to heat in september, there has already been a marked decrease in heating oil consumption of our house.

Speaking of heating oil, here's the price development of heating oil of the last three months.

It's winter. There's bound to be cold weeks. We'll get through them.

Don't Panic · Dec 6, 2022

Whyayeman said:
Not so. The figure for November has been reported by utility companies to be 10%-15% below the figure for October. both months have been exceptionally warm. The companies put the drop down to the great efforts to reduce domestic consumption by families worried by the increases in cost. Thermostats have been turned down, lights switched off.

In November, Europe’s natural gas demand was 24% lower than the five-year average for the month, largely due to reduced industrial demand amid high prices.

European Gas Consumption Is 24% Below The Five-Year Average

Demand destruction is clearly underway in Europe, with November’s gas consumption 24% below the five-year average

finance.yahoo.com

Great, brain fart, I wrote shortage when I meant storage. Yes it has been unusually warm but the next few weeks will be cold.

dqhall · Dec 7, 2022

Nithavela said:
Speaking from only our personal home, we have turned the house temperature down about two degrees celsius.

Since starting to heat in september, there has already been a marked decrease in heating oil consumption of our house.

Speaking of heating oil, here's the price development of heating oil of the last three months.

View attachment 324419
It's winter. There's bound to be cold weeks. We'll get through them.

Hungary is seeing fuel hoarding and panic. Gas stations ran out of gas.
Hungary scraps petrol price caps amid fuel shortage

Nithavela · Dec 7, 2022

dqhall said:
Hungary is seeing fuel hoarding and panic. Gas stations ran out of gas.
Hungary scraps petrol price caps amid fuel shortage

That's what they get for buddying up so closely to russia. They're just being hit with the same panic that was going around in the rest of europe when the war started.

Also, the gas shortage is their own fault. They capped the price of gas at the pump, so now they can't buy enough on the open market.

Whyayeman · Dec 7, 2022

dqhall said:
Hungary is seeing fuel hoarding and panic. Gas stations ran out of gas.
Hungary scraps petrol price caps amid fuel shortage

Hungary is a bit of a basket case in Europe. I expect they will get a bit of help from EU neighbours.

Tuur · Dec 7, 2022

Homeowner said:
Surprising how big % the UK is getting from wind. From the article...

Germany’s wind power generation has started to rebound, and so has the wind power supply in the UK. On Sunday, December 4, wind generated 36.1% of British electricity, followed by gas at 29.2% and nuclear at 15.4%, National Grid ESO said on Monday.

The UK isn't surprising. Look how it's situated. Should be plenty of wind and the UK is relatively small by US state-size standards. Germany, well, that part of Europe got into a tight before. Shrug. Their country, their business.

Tuur · Dec 7, 2022

Nithavela said:
Speaking from only our personal home, we have turned the house temperature down about two degrees celsius.

Since starting to heat in september, there has already been a marked decrease in heating oil consumption of our house.

Speaking of heating oil, here's the price development of heating oil of the last three months.

View attachment 324419
It's winter. There's bound to be cold weeks. We'll get through them.

We keep ours at 68° F / 20° C in the winter and 80° F / 26.7° C in the summer. This makes a positive difference in our bill. I'm not green, just cheap.

Nithavela · Dec 7, 2022

Tuur said:
We keep ours at 68° F / 20° C in the winter and 80° F / 26.7° C in the summer. This makes a positive difference in our bill. I'm not green, just cheap.

Our house is at around 18° C right now, and we don't have air conditioning, like most houses in germany.

I can see why that is neccessary in many parts of the US, though, and our house rarely gets warmer than 27° C.

Homeowner · Dec 7, 2022

Tuur said:
Germany, well, that part of Europe got into a tight before.

They could have kept the nuclear power but politics. I do remember some article that they actually had a sunny and windy day that produced enough renewable energy to actually run the whole country.

But the lack of consistency is a problem. Not so with nuclear.

Red Gold · Dec 7, 2022

Ukraine also will face a hard winter.

Whyayeman · Dec 7, 2022

Homeowner said:
They could have kept the nuclear power but politics. I do remember some article that they actually had a sunny and windy day that produced enough renewable energy to actually run the whole country.

But the lack of consistency is a problem. Not so with nuclear.

There has been a long tradition against nuclear power in Germany. It is extremely expensive with serious very long-term problems of disposal of the tonnes of radio-active waste. The resistance to this form of generation is principled as well as economic. Germany has no local access to uranium which is any case just another finite resource.

Nithavela · Dec 7, 2022

Whyayeman said:
There has been a long tradition against nuclear power in Germany. It is extremely expensive with serious very long-term problems of disposal of the tonnes of radio-active waste. The resistance to this form of generation is principled as well as economic. Germany has no local access to uranium which is any case just another finite resource.

The Uranium we use in our nuclear plants came from Russia.

Desk trauma · Dec 7, 2022

Whyayeman said:
It is extremely expensive

It's extremely expensive to start, once it's up and running it's competitive with any other baseload option.

Whyayeman said:
with serious very long-term problems of disposal of the tonnes of radio-active waste.

Current nuclear technology would need to be used for centuries before there is enough high level waste for there to be storage issues. I have worked at nuclear plants that have been in operation for decades where all spent fuel rods are kept on site. Their storage containers are widely spaced and still fit in a footprint smaller than the nearest Walmart parking lot.

Whyayeman said:
There has been a long tradition against nuclear power in Germany.

Pity.

Europe Faces a Cold Winter Without Russian Oil

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you're in charge you can do it just get louis

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you're in charge you can do it just get louis

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you're in charge you can do it just get louis

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you're in charge you can do it just get louis

The pickles are up to something

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