Is it possible that the decline in US Christians is stabilizing?

hedrick · Jul 8, 2021

These results suggest that the decline may be stabilizing. The 2020 Census of American Religion | PRRI

The numbers are from surveys, so they may not be reflected in church membership.

It appears that growth in mainline Christianity is making up for decline in evangelicals. It will be interesting to see whether this persists. (Like many surveys they make that distinction only for white Christians.)

Ignatius the Kiwi · Jul 8, 2021

I think there's more decline to come. Especially as the Zoomers grow up and start having children.

hedrick · Jul 8, 2021

Ignatius the Kiwi said:
I think there's more decline to come. Especially as the Zoomers grow up and start having children.

It’s hard to be sure. They show membership by age. It is certainly lower for younger generations, but that was a pattern even before the recent decline. Interestingly, white evangelicals have the highest median age, Hispanic Christians the lowest among Christians. But that is likely to be because of immigration. In younger cohorts, mainline outnumber evangelicals, almost 2 to 1 in 18 - 29.

but again, this is based on surveys. More people may identify as non evangelical Christians, but that doesn’t necessarily show in church memberships.

Ignatius the Kiwi · Jul 8, 2021

hedrick said:
It’s hard to be sure. They show membership by age. It is certainly lower for younger generations, but that was a pattern even before the recent decline. Interestingly, white evangelicals have the highest median age, Hispanic Christians the lowest among Christians. But that is likely to be because of immigration.

Once American culture infects the Hispanic Christian population they will gradually lose their faith. If not in this generation, it would be in future ones.

If the Zoomers are the least religious generation then there is no avoiding a complete demographic collapse of Christians within the USA and the western world in general.

thecolorsblend · Jul 8, 2021

1rreducibly Complex · Jul 8, 2021

Stalin forcing state mandated atheism on russia triggered a magnificent reversal of russians embracing christianity.

It is possible we'll witness an identical effect with the state mandating secularism/atheism. People see atheism is not a good foundation for practicing morality, engaging in sports/science, being successful at work or business, essentially living a good life. It makes sense for a counter culture movement to take shape in response to secularisms very visible failings.

Fervent · Jul 8, 2021

Possible, sure. But until the strata of the music improves I have little hope for revival.

hedrick · Jul 9, 2021

Ignatius the Kiwi said:
Once American culture infects the Hispanic Christian population they will gradually lose their faith. If not in this generation, it would be in future ones.

If the Zoomers are the least religious generation then there is no avoiding a complete demographic collapse of Christians within the USA and the western world in general.

Again, look at the data. If we were doomed, you’d expect that numbers for younger ages would get worse over time. But from 2016 to 2020 the nones in all ages groups stabilized or went down, including the youngest adults. I am not expecting things to go back to the good old days, but they may also not keep going down.

“Americans ages 65 and older are the only group whose religious profile has changed significantly since 2013. Among Americans 65 and older, the proportion of white evangelical Protestants dropped from 26% in 2013 to 22% in 2020, and the proportion of white Catholics dropped from 18% in 2013 to 15% in 2020. By contrast, the proportion of religiously unaffiliated seniors increased from 11% in 2013 to 14% in 2020.”

thecolorsblend · Jul 9, 2021

1rreducibly Complex · Jul 9, 2021

thecolorsblend said:
The difference now is that the younger generations have been raised in a pretty degenerate and immoral society. The Russians you speak of had a living memory of better moral times and they knew what had been taken away from them.

If that is true, the same would have occurred in other parts of the world.

Russians looked at the restrictive and oppressive system and decided they could do better. Which isn't something cubans or chinese had the independance of thought to accomplish.

An inefficient and terrible system that starved more than 20 million russians to death. Some might accept this as normal. Others would not.

Ignatius the Kiwi · Jul 9, 2021

hedrick said:
Again, look at the data. If we were doomed, you’d expect that numbers for younger ages would get worse over time. But from 2016 to 2020 the nones in all ages groups stabilized or went down, including the youngest adults. I am not expecting things to go back to the good old days, but they may also not keep going down.

“Americans ages 65 and older are the only group whose religious profile has changed significantly since 2013. Among Americans 65 and older, the proportion of white evangelical Protestants dropped from 26% in 2013 to 22% in 2020, and the proportion of white Catholics dropped from 18% in 2013 to 15% in 2020. By contrast, the proportion of religiously unaffiliated seniors increased from 11% in 2013 to 14% in 2020.”

I remain unconvinced given the forces in the world arrayed against Christianity. Namely the media, educational establishment, big tech and law. Give it more time and we'll see more churches close and numbers continue to crater.

Fervent · Jul 9, 2021

1rreducibly Complex said:
Stalin forcing state mandated atheism on russia triggered a magnificent reversal of russians embracing christianity.

It is possible we'll witness an identical effect with the state mandating secularism/atheism. People see atheism is not a good foundation for practicing morality, engaging in sports/science, being successful at work or business, essentially living a good life. It makes sense for a counter culture movement to take shape in response to secularisms very visible failings.

While what you say is certainly true, historically there have been 2 factors that drive growth swells in the church and both must be present for significant movement. A strong, theologically rich music and persecution. It's been said "the blood of martyrs is the seed of the church," and that has historically been the case when it is accompanied with a healthy original music culture.

bling · Jul 9, 2021

hedrick said:
It’s hard to be sure. They show membership by age. It is certainly lower for younger generations, but that was a pattern even before the recent decline. Interestingly, white evangelicals have the highest median age, Hispanic Christians the lowest among Christians. But that is likely to be because of immigration. In younger cohorts, mainline outnumber evangelicals, almost 2 to 1 in 18 - 29.

but again, this is based on surveys. More people may identify as non evangelical Christians, but that doesn’t necessarily show in church memberships.

Survey thatask people how often they attend their local church and the actual number attending are hugely different. People may say the go once permonth but church attendance show it more like twice a year.

hedrick · Jul 9, 2021

Fervent said:
While what you say is certainly true, historically there have been 2 factors that drive growth swells in the church and both must be present for significant movement. A strong, theologically rich music and persecution. It's been said "the blood of martyrs is the seed of the church," and that has historically been the case when it is accompanied with a healthy original music culture.

Membership in the US historically was fairly low. The mid 20th Century was a high point. No persecution involved. A Christian America? What History Shows

Fervent · Jul 9, 2021

hedrick said:
Membership in the US historically was fairly low. The mid 20th Century was a high point. No persecution involved. A Christian America? What History Shows

This is contrary to what I have been taught, and seems to be based on a single study without going into details about how the approximations were made, what "fragmentary data" was used, nor the assumptions involved. Certainly an interesting claim and worth investigating, though.

thecolorsblend · Jul 9, 2021

hedrick · Jul 10, 2021

Fervent said:
This is contrary to what I have been taught, and seems to be based on a single study without going into details about how the approximations were made, what "fragmentary data" was used, nor the assumptions involved. Certainly an interesting claim and worth investigating, though.

I first ran into this with Rodney Stark. Turning Pews into People: Estimating 19th Century Church Membership on JSTOR
Or better https://www.washingtonpost.com/arch...america/6cb64903-30f4-435e-a415-6be0f0465bfe/ Wikipedia agrees History of religion in the United States - Wikipedia

Note that a lot of this data goes back to two people, the best known being Stark, though not the Wikipedia numbers (though I have bought the book they cite to see where it got the numbers). Heres a skeptical view of Starks theories but it doesn’t seem to dispute his numbers. Beliefs (Published 1993) this reference is worth reading for those that think widespread premarital intercourse and other widespread behavior contrary to conservative standards is new. We’re coming out of a period with unusually conventional behavior, or at least our memory of that period is that way.

Fervent · Jul 10, 2021

hedrick said:
I first ran into this with Rodney Stark. Turning Pews into People: Estimating 19th Century Church Membership on JSTOR
Or better https://www.washingtonpost.com/arch...america/6cb64903-30f4-435e-a415-6be0f0465bfe/ Wikipedia agrees History of religion in the United States - Wikipedia

Note that a lot of this data goes back to two people, the best known being Stark, though not the Wikipedia numbers (though I have bought the book they cite to see where it got the numbers). Heres a skeptical view of Starks theories but it doesn’t seem to dispute his numbers. Beliefs (Published 1993) this reference is worth reading for those that think widespread premarital intercourse and other widespread behavior contrary to conservative standards is new. We’re coming out of a period with unusually conventional behavior, or at least our memory of that period is that way.

I'll read it when I have a moment, but I immediately come to a question upon reading the titles and what little I was able to get last night. Are they operating under the assumption that most religious individuals were official members of organized churches, or at the very least went to large cohort gatherings? I'm not sure that assumption necessarily holds up considering how common the house church has been throughout history. Perhaps the movement in the 20th century that he found is not so much towards Christianity but an institutional form of Christianity. Do they consider this possibility?

hedrick · Jul 10, 2021

Fervent said:
I'll read it when I have a moment, but I immediately come to a question upon reading the titles and what little I was able to get last night. Are they operating under the assumption that most religious individuals were official members of organized churches, or at the very least went to large cohort gatherings? I'm not sure that assumption necessarily holds up considering how common the house church has been throughout history. Perhaps the movement in the 20th century that he found is not so much towards Christianity but an institutional form of Christianity. Do they consider this possibility?

We don't have polls from that period. I suspect check membership and attendance is what they can get. I agree that more people would say they are Christian than go to church, then and now. But I think there's still not much evidence for the very high proportion of Christians in the 19th Cent that many assume. Here's the oldest survey data I could find: The Great Decline: 60 years of religion in one graph. Note that the beginning is an upward trend.

Here's their comment: "The graph of this index tells the story of the rise and fall of religious activity. During the post-war, baby-booming 1950s, there was a revival of religion. Indeed, some at the time considered it a third great awakening" It's been going down since that peak. One theory would be that it has been going down as that generation dies out.

Most graphs only show the second half. That gives a misleading impression.

Fervent · Jul 10, 2021

hedrick said:
We don't have polls from that period. I suspect check membership and attendance is what they can get. I agree that more people would say they are Christian than go to church, then and now. But I think there's still not much evidence for the very high proportion of Christians in the 19th Cent that many assume. Here's the oldest survey data I could find: The Great Decline: 60 years of religion in one graph. Note that the beginning is an upward trend.

Here's their comment: "The graph of this index tells the story of the rise and fall of religious activity. During the post-war, baby-booming 1950s, there was a revival of religion. Indeed, some at the time considered it a third great awakening" It's been going down since that peak. One theory would be that it has been going down as that generation dies out.

Most graphs only show the second half. That gives a misleading impression.

I'm not speaking to casual believers, but house churches consisting of 2 or 3 families that meet in each others homes. There appears to be an assumption that the primary engagement of believers is in institutional denominations with structured services...yet I wonder if that is a legitimate assumption, or if the upticks that are seen are a departure from the family led church model into a more formal form.

Is it possible that the decline in US Christians is stabilizing?

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