But the stats do not actually work out to be more or less even. This year's are significantly more IF we take account of the fact that there's a lot more of 2020 to go.
Do you know what it means to annualize something? Yes, those stats work out. No, there aren't significantly more if we account for the fact that we're not finished with 2020. This is basic math.
Right now, the ODMP is showing 44 officer deaths by felonious assault in 2020. That's the sum of Assault, Gunfire (intentional), and Vehicular Assault (I would also include stabbings if there were any this year), and is almost 50% higher than the total from
the FBI page that was the source for
@renniks' ABC article. I'm not sure where that discrepancy comes from - maybe it's in reporting delays; maybe it's in who's considered law enforcement (e.g. ODMP includes correction officers and federal officers working for the military, like NCIS). Either way, that should work out not in my favor.
Anyways, today is the 259th day of the year. 44 deaths divided by 259 days equals 0.1699 deaths per day. Multiply that by 366 (this is a leap year after all) give you 62. Staying at our current rate, we should wind up with 62 officers killed by felonious assault by the end of this year. Granted, it looks like I rounded a bit too much in my earlier post when I came up with 57 (IIRC, I treated today as the end of September), but last year's total number was 58.
2018 was 65.
2017 was 57.
2016 was 82.
2015 was 54.
2014 was 62.
2013 was 42.
2012 was 65.
2011 was 88.
2010 was 80.
The mean of these years is 65.4
The median is 65.
Those mean and median figures hold true even if you strip out 2013 and 2011 (i.e. the highest and the lowest years)
The number fluctuates year-to-year and if we stay on our current trajectory, that projection of 62 is just a little
below average.
