US Hits Highest Layoffs Since COVID

[mark46]

The person he’s speaking to works in the industry professionally and has written 100 papers on the subject. Where do your credentials stack up in relation to his where Ai is concerned? Several of the industries listed already have disruptions.

Have you forgotten the worker shortage for restaurants and the robots some used in their place as waiters?
There’s an automated delivery service in business now. It‘s a little green wagon. I saw one in my neighborhood this summer.
Children are being instructed by Ai as we speak.
Driverless trucks and cars exists including taxis.

The list you provided isn’t reflective of someone conversant in the topic. Not only in terms of the workforce nor on the investment side. If you were following the latter you’d hear similar remarks. But since you won’t believe him I’ll post others who’ve said the same.

Yuval Noah Harari: Workplace Automation & the "Useless Class"

Elon Musk says Universal Basic Income is “going to be necessary.”

There will be fewer and fewer jobs that a robot cannot do better. I want to be clear. These are not things I wish will happen; these are things I think probably will happen. And if my assessment is correct and they probably will happen, than we have to think about what are we going to do about it? I think some kind of universal basic income is going to be necessary.

The output of goods and services will be extremely high. With automation there will come abundance. Almost everything will get very cheap. I think we’ll end up doing universal basic income. It’s going to be necessary. The much harder challenge is, how are people going to have meaning? A lot of people derive their meaning from their employment. So if there’s no need for your labor, what’s your meaning? Do you feel useless? That’s a much harder problem to deal with.”

Former US Labor Secretary: UBI Inevitable Due to AI

According to Robert Reich, the rise in productivity and loss of jobs as a result of AI will require a universal basic income response. "People have got to have enough money in their pockets to buy all the things that the new economy is capable of producing."

AI Is Replacing Jobs – Basic Income Is the Answer | Mark Carney

Former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney highlights the need for basic income ('social supports') to help workers navigate the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the job market. "New jobs will be created, but old jobs will be lost... What happens to the people in those jobs - are they ready for the new jobs?"

Elon Musk Sees A Future of Complete Universal High Income

I've studied the results of automation and computers since I received my MBA in Finance from Berkeley in the 60's. There are experts on every side of every issue. Smoking in 50's and climate change now are the most obvious. This morning, I saw this expert's work discussed,

In the 60's, it was clear to so many experts that computer would wipe out almost all white collar jobs, for example, and especially in banking. Of course, there are more workers in banking than before computers.

I still hear about all the car manufacturing leaving the country. We need to protect that industry said the Democrats and Trump. We produce more autos than ever before. The very reason that the US has had a successful economy since the 40's is BECAUSE of improved process and especially the development of more efficient assembly lines and supply chains. That will not stop. The eason that we notice this so much is because of the AI boom on top of the now very effective and efficient robots.
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TO BE CLEAR
AI and robots will both take millions of jobs. As has been the case since the 1850's, society will need to adapt. And many won't. Since my high school days, we were told that the vocational tech and community college jobs would still be there in 50 years and would pay well. The college degree in business or in liberal arts, on the other hand wouldn't be very marketable.

Do you think that the businesses WANT to use those little green wagons. They use them because no one will take the jobs that they have a available. One major restaurant near us is almost always half-full with a long waiting line. Workers simply don't show up. Another had a sign asking us to please be patient to the few workers who showed up for work. These companies are doing the best they can to adapt.

Until a few months ago, there were many more jobs available than folks unemployed and looking for work. Companies have been unable to get the workers they want for at least a couple of decades. There are many reasons. I pointed out the problem with youngsters' lack of ambition. There is also the issue of drug use. Most employers cannot hire those who can't pass a drug test.

BTW, please understand that Amazon is creating 600K jobs and will likely go to robots. How many jobs do you think will be created to produce the goods that there are delivering? Do you think that will all be done by robots? Of course not. The economy will be booming not tanking as your expert suggests.
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A FINAL NOTE
There is likely to always be a mismatch between jobs and those looking for work. A guaranteed income will likely end up being the societal solution, paid for by taxes to those making the billions and trillions. The large businesses will either do that or face revolts by those young men not working.

 

[mark46]

Amazon is reducing its workforce by 600k. I posted about it earlier. That includes warehouse workers, drivers and management. MBA candidates said recruiting is down significantly. Amazon is the second largest employer in the US.

Walmart announced a 3 year hiring freeze that I posted the other day. They have a fleet of driverless trucks on the ready and plan to automate their warehouse.

Starbucks closed 627 stores worldwide in a three month span and 520 were in the US.

Care to restate your position?

~bella

Nope.

There are many measures of the size of the economy. One is the projected earnings and dividends of companies, Those projections are higher than ever. BTW, during this current crash, how much do you think that average wages have decreased? How much has the total value of goods and services produced gone down.
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The economy will continue to grow in spite of Trump's tariff policies, his attacks on education and his attack on R&D (especially in health care).
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There is a huge debate with regard to whether we should return the percentage the feds pay for health subsidies to pre-pandemic levels or not. That is a very minor problem compared to those issues that you have been rightly addressing.

 

[bèlla]

Do you think that the businesses WANT to use those little green wagons. They use them because no one will take the jobs that they have a available.

That may be so for small businesses. But chains and publicly traded entities are welcoming the shift and passing the savings along to shareholders not employees.

BTW, please understand that Amazon is creating 600K jobs and will likely go to robots. How many jobs do you think will be created to produce the goods that there are delivering?

Amazon doesn’t create the items they sell. They’re produced by other companies and sold through them.

There is likely to always be a mismatch between jobs and those looking for work. A guaranteed income will likely end up being the societal solution, paid for by taxes to those making the billions and trillions. The large businesses will either do that or face revolts by those young men not working.

UBI isn’t going to be a lot and they’ve run pilots across the country. It’s called basic for a reason and you’ll have enough to get by on. Your perspective is very altruistic. But my experience tells me otherwise and that‘s what I’m betting on and preparing for.

~bella

 

[bèlla]

I saw this on someone’s feed on X. One of the commenters said the imagery was all over London 4 months ago.

London Pic

 

[hedrick]

I think the current slowdown in hiring is about uncertainty. It's not clear that AI is really going eliminate white collar jobs. In the past automation hasn't really had that kind of effect, though it's certainly eliminated some jobs. But maybe this one is different. It's also not clear that tariffs are going to kill the economy. But both are plausible enough to make reasonable people pause both hiring and investment.

In my opinion the biggest problem with Trump's tariffs isn't their existence but the fact that he keeps changing them. The US economy can adapt to lots of challenges, but it takes time. When the government keeps changing things, it's impossible to know how to adapt. So managers just pause.

My reading of Trump is that he's not going to stop changing things. He wants to be in the headlines. Maybe eventually the economy will be able to deal with even that, but not for a while.