Even if (more likely "when") Momdani becomes NYC Mayor studies show the richest New Yorkers will stay

[Fantine]

The Myth That Mamdani Will Cause New York City’s Richest to Leave - The American Prospect

Millionaire tax flight would devastate a future Mamdani administration. If the rich leave, how could anything be financed? But research shows that wealthy individuals move at lower rates than others, even in response to higher personal income taxes.

prospect.org

The first research comes from the Fiscal Policy Institute, which recently studied New York state tax filings from 2023 to determine how many millionaires left New York due to a personal income tax increase in 2021. They found that the top 1 percent of income earners (who make above $815,000) typically move out of the state less than any other income group.

when high earners leave New York, they don’t seem to do so for tax reasons. They tend to move to other comparatively high-tax states, like Connecticut, New Jersey, and California. The FPI finds that a full 72.9 percent of those with high incomes leaving New York went to high-tax states. the FPI finds that this pattern, in which high earners stay in New York or move to high-tax states, was “unaffected” by the 2021 tax increase. While New York gained 17,500 high-income households over the period of 2020-2022, it only lost 2,400 (of which the pandemic must be taken into consideration).

And that makes sense. When you can afford to live anywhere, cities offer the wealthy a great quality of life--a quality of life that will only improve when Momdani's changes improve the quality of life for everyone else.

Momdani, Bernie, and AOC held a huge rally last night. If only Momdani had been born in the US instead of Nigeria, he would be just about perfect.

 

[iluvatar5150]

The fears that rich people would leave just fundamentally misunderstands why those rich people are in those locations in the first place. NYC is already wildly expensive. Folks who can afford to live somewhere else but don’t stay around either because they want to or because they have business interests keeping them there. Remember, it’s these same rich guys who are insisting we all RTO with them. They want to be in the office.

 

[probinson]

The article uses the personal income tax rate increase from 2021 as evidence that people won't move if their taxes increase.

According to ChatGPT...

In New York City (via the state of New York) the personal income tax rate for the highest earners was increased in the 2021 budget. Specifically:​

• For single filers with over $1,077,550 (or married filing jointly over $2,155,350), the top state rate was raised from 8.82% to 9.65%. Hodgson Russ+3NYS Tax Department+3PKF O'Connor Davies+3
• Two additional higher brackets were created: 10.3% for income over $5 million, and 10.9% for income over $25 million. Hodgson Russ+2Baker Tilly+2
• For NYC residents, combining this with the city income tax (3.876%) resulted in a top combined tax rate of about 14.776% for those earning over $25 million. PKF O'Connor Davies+1

So the increase for the top state rate (for the >$1.1 M bracket) was 0.83 percentage points (from 8.82 % → 9.65 %).​

​

So, the research cited shows that if you increase top-earners' taxes by LESS THAN ONE PERCENT, they'll stay. I'd wager that if you increase ANYONE'S taxes by less than one percentage point, that's not really a strong motivator to move. However, there is very likely a threshold for tax increase that, when surpassed, could be a trigger for people to move away. What is that threshold? Perhaps we'll find out.

 

[Oompa Loompa]

The Myth That Mamdani Will Cause New York City’s Richest to Leave - The American Prospect

Millionaire tax flight would devastate a future Mamdani administration. If the rich leave, how could anything be financed? But research shows that wealthy individuals move at lower rates than others, even in response to higher personal income taxes.

prospect.org

And that makes sense. When you can afford to live anywhere, cities offer the wealthy a great quality of life--a quality of life that will only improve when Momdani's changes improve the quality of life for everyone else.

Momdani, Bernie, and AOC held a huge rally last night. If only Momdani had been born in the US instead of Nigeria, he would be just about perfect.

From what we have seen in California, it is the middle class who will flee.

 

[Chesterton]

I guess they're rich enough to have groceries delivered from New Jersey or Connecticut.

 

[Always in His Presence]

Like the old saying goes

Socialism works until you run out of other people’s money.

 

[Hans Blaster]

Like the old saying goes

Socialism works until you run out of other people’s money.

Last I looked, the rich still have an awful lot left.

 

[Fantine]

From what we have seen in California, it is the middle class who will flee.

The middle class will not have tax increases.
I have cousins in NYC and they'd never live anywhere else.

 

[bèlla]

So, the research cited shows that if you increase top-earners' taxes by LESS THAN ONE PERCENT, they'll stay. I'd wager that if you increase ANYONE'S taxes by less than one percentage point, that's not really a strong motivator to move. However, there is very likely a threshold for tax increase that, when surpassed, could be a trigger for people to move away. What is that threshold? Perhaps we'll find out.

I’m not sure of the sources Ai is drawing from but I‘ve posted reports along those lines of global movements of the wealthy by a firm specializing in the subject and taxes are a factor. That’s why they’re leaving the UK in droves. Business interest doesn’t equal primary residence. You can setup shop in a neighboring state and purchase a place in the city (as an expense) and many do. And more than a few established them elsewhere like Wyoming for tax reasons.

You have to look at inflows and outflows to interpret the data and factor in global activity. You’ll see that in the screenshots I shared below. While wealth is increasing in America we’re seeing a reciprocal demand in global passports too. They’re acquiring citizenship elsewhere much more than before. You’re seeing comparable growth in other areas in the country which reflects movement as well.

During difficult periods you want to monitor outflows. They’ll still have to pay taxes but you lose their purchasing power locally and that’s significant. The same holds true for digital nomads. They may not have wealth on that scale but you’re losing their dollars and retirees too. As of 2025 there’s more 50 countries that offer digital nomad or short-term visas for entrepreneurs. When you factor in the cost of living and currency exchange its enticing for both. You can draw social security anywhere.

Purchasing the Trump visa doesn’t mean they’re physically here. It’s a good strategy for business and mobility’s sake.

~bella

 

[Oompa Loompa]

The middle class will not have tax increases.
I have cousins in NYC and they'd never live anywhere else.

Says who?

 

[Always in His Presence]

Last I looked, the rich still have an awful lot left.

Yeah, how dare they try to keep the money they earn. They have a lot of nerve.

The middle class will not have tax increases.
I have cousins in NYC and they'd never live anywhere else.

One of the happiest experiences I have had is when I moved from NY to OK.

While it was a lateral move, my take home pay went up 14%. My property taxes went down almost 3,000 a year for a home twice the size

 

[Desk trauma]

He’s clearly going to liquidate millionaires as a class so they’re going…

 

[Hans Blaster]

Yeah, how dare they try to keep the money they earn. They have a lot of nerve.

Which is not what I said at all. I was only pointing out that your empty aphorism about "running out of richies" wasn't even close to the current case.

 

[Always in His Presence]

Which is not what I said at all. I was only pointing out that your empty aphorism about "running out of richies" wasn't even close to the current case.

You should at least get the quote right.

Like the old saying goes

Socialism works until you run out of other people’s money.

Last I looked, the rich still have an awful lot left.

Here is the rub - It is their money - not ours to confiscate through draconian taxes aimed solely at them because of their success.

 

[Hans Blaster]

You should at least get the quote right.

I was paraphrazing the aphorism, not quoting you.

Here is the rub - It is their money - not ours to confiscate through draconian taxes aimed solely at them because of their success.

A 2% tax is "draconian", give me a break.

 

[Belk]

The fears that rich people would leave just fundamentally misunderstands why those rich people are in those locations in the first place. NYC is already wildly expensive. Folks who can afford to live somewhere else but don’t stay around either because they want to or because they have business interests keeping them there. Remember, it’s these same rich guys who are insisting we all RTO with them. They want to be in the office.

No, they want YOU in the office. Most of the uber wealthy WFH on a regular basis according to recent studies.

 

[Always in His Presence]

I was paraphrazing the aphorism, not quoting you.

It looked lie it was being re-stated to fit a certain thought process....

A 2% tax is "draconian", give me a break.

on top of.....

New York City has a local income tax rate that ranges from 3.078% to 3.876%,

and:

Now add the "only 2%" to that - it becomes 16.17%

Then add the Federal

Search Assist

In 2025, the federal income tax brackets will be as follows: for single filers, the rates are 10% on income up to $11,925, 12% on income from $11,926 to $48,475, and so on, with the highest rate of 37% applying to income over $626,350. For married couples filing jointly, the rates start at 10% on income up to $23,850 and reach 37% for income over $751,600.

Imagine - $53.00 of every $100.00 going to the government.

 

[iluvatar5150]

Imagine - $53.00 of every $100.00 going to the government.

Imagine having $25 million in salary (i.e. not capital gains) in a single year to make that even a possibility.

 

[Desk trauma]

Imagine - $53.00 of every $100.00 going to the government.

Yeah, how do the poor multi millionaires cope.

 

[Always in His Presence]

Yeah, how do the poor multi millionaires cope.

yeah, they have lots of money - let's just ignore who owns the finances -