How is the Economy Doing Right Now?

[mark46]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/14/ai-infrastructure-boom-masks-potential-us-recession-analyst-warns.html

The AI boom is lifting the stock market, but it may be masking a weaker economy

Is AI already driving U.S. growth?

Discover how artificial intelligence (AI) is driving U.S. economic growth in 2025, with record investments in data centers, tech hardware, and infrastructure. Explore the impact of AI on GDP, business investment, and the future of the American economy.

am.jpmorgan.com

Is AI already driving U.S. growth?

AI Bubble May Pop — Wiping Out $40 Trillion. Learn What Could Happen And What To Do

Will today's AI bubble wipe $40 trillion off the Nasdaq? The AI bubble has hallmarks of the dot-com boom. See three scenarios and how to know which is most likely.

www.forbes.com

AI Bubble May Pop — Wiping Out $40 Trillion. Learn What Could Happen And What To Do

https://thehill.com/policy/technology/5552965-ai-bubble-concerns-grow/

Why experts are worried about an AI bubble in the stock market

This 100% true.

I agree,

Other than AI, its associated products and infrastructure, the economy would be in a downturn, a very normal part of economic cycles.

Manufacturing (other than AI) is NOT in good shape. Health R&D is in terrible shape, losing lots of talent to Europe, more everyday
========
Trump's tariffs hurt the economy is so many ways. However, deregulation and the pressure Trump has put on specific companies to build has been enough to counteract the effect of the tariffs.
========
A flat 10-15% tax on foreign goods is wrong and a drag on the economy, but one that is OK in that companies and customers can deal with them. And, yes, Trump can negotiate with specific companies (and countries) and get better deals for the US.

HOWEVER, using high tariff threats (TACO's) to threaten, hurt companies and supply chains, and then back off is extremely poor policy. The latest are the threats to Switzerland and Spain. We will pay for the effects of the treatment of Canada and Brazil for a very long time.
=====
BTW, the threats to China are different in kind. How to deal with China is much, much larger than paying more for Chinese imports. We do need to decouple from depending on Chinese goods and sales of tech goods to China. Farmers will need to be subsidized or learn to farm other crops (for example, there is an ever-increasing huge market for organic produce)

 

[camille70]

Nine months after Donald Trump took office, promising to reduce prices on “day one”, a clear majority of Americans say their monthly costs have risen by between $100 and $749, according to an exclusive new poll conducted for the Guardian.

75% of Americans report soaring prices as Trump claims inflation ‘over’

Exclusive poll: Inflation remains a concern despite president’s pledge to reduce prices on ‘day one’

www.theguardian.com

 

[camille70]

Without data centers, GDP growth was 0.1% in the first half of 2025, Harvard economist says | Fortune

Without data centers, GDP growth was 0.1% in the first half of 2025, Harvard economist says | Fortune

Is a U.S. without data centers a country without GDP growth?

fortune.com

U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was almost entirely driven by investment in data centers and information processing technology, according to Harvard economist Jason Furman. Excluding these technology-related categories, Furman calculated in a Sept. 27 post on X.com GDP growth would have been just 0.1% on an annualized basis, a near standstill that underlines the increasingly pivotal role of high-tech infrastructure in shaping macroeconomic outcomes.

Furman’s findings, shared online and echoed by financial analysts including Robert Armstrong of the Financial Times‘ Unhedged (the same writer who coined the term “TACO trade’), echo several months of observations on the remarkable surge in data-center infrastructure. In August, Renaissance Macro Research estimated, to date in 2025, the dollar value contributed to GDP growth by AI data-center buildout had surpassed U.S. consumer spending for the first time ever. That’s remarkable considering consumer spending is two-thirds of GDP.

 

[camille70]

Virginia’s GDP growth drops from 6.2% to 1.7%. Three new economic reports issue warnings about why and what comes next.

The reports also suggest the state may be losing high-wage jobs but gaining lower-wage jobs.

Virginia’s GDP growth drops from 6.2% to 1.7%. Three new economic reports issue warnings about why and what comes next.

The reports also suggest the state may be losing high-wage jobs but gaining lower-wage jobs.

cardinalnews.org

Three new economic reports that came out last week suggest that Virginia’s next governor is going to have to spend a lot of her time dealing with a sluggish economy.

The state’s two largest metro areas — read: Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, the state’s largest economic engines — are now losing jobs.
Virginia’s economic growth is now among the lowest in the country and is projected to remain slow through at least the first two years of the next governor’s term.

Unemployment is rising statewide and is projected to keep rising in 2026.
The three reports come from the Brookings Institution, Old Dominion University’s Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy and the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service. All three cite the same thing for this sour economic outlook — President Donald Trump’s policies, which have reduced federal employment and increased tariffs, both of which have hit Virginia uniquely hard because many of Virginia’s jobs have been tied to the federal government and beyond that the state has a trade-based economy

 

[Christworshiper]

I just went food shopping and the prices are not going down at all.

 

[camille70]

I just went food shopping and the prices are not going down at all.

Groceries definitely aren't. I did pay 2.12 per gallon for gas at Costco last week, which was a pleasant surprise.

 

[rambot]

Groceries definitely aren't. I did pay 2.12 per gallon for gas at Costco last week, which was a pleasant surprise.

I was very surprised to see some folks saying that they were paying "less for groceries" in the thread I started. As I recall, most folks only noted a few items that were FAR more expensive.

 

[camille70]

 

[camille70]

MTG again on the economy with Tucker Carlson. I tried to find a yt link with just this portion but only found a Twitter post.

https://x.com/OfTheBraveUSA/status/1981170142513156498

 

[Say it aint so]

US hits $38 trillion in debt, after the fastest accumulation of $1 trillion outside of the pandemic​

WASHINGTON (AP) — In the midst of a federal government shutdown, the U.S. government’s gross national debt surpassed $38 trillion Wednesday, a record number that highlights the accelerating accumulation of debt on America’s balance sheet.​

​

It’s also the fastest accumulation of a trillion dollars in debt outside of the COVID-19 pandemic — the U.S. hit $37 trillion in gross national debt in August this year.​

​

The $38 trillion update is found in the latest Treasury Department report, which logs the nation’s daily finances.​

​

Kent Smetters of the University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model, who served in President George W. Bush’s Treasury Department, told The Associated Press that a growing debt load over time leads ultimately to higher inflation, eroding Americans’ purchasing power.​

​

Are we winning yet?

 

[Pommer]

Without data centers, GDP growth was 0.1% in the first half of 2025, Harvard economist says | Fortune

Without data centers, GDP growth was 0.1% in the first half of 2025, Harvard economist says | Fortune

Is a U.S. without data centers a country without GDP growth?

fortune.com

U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was almost entirely driven by investment in data centers and information processing technology, according to Harvard economist Jason Furman. Excluding these technology-related categories, Furman calculated in a Sept. 27 post on X.com GDP growth would have been just 0.1% on an annualized basis, a near standstill that underlines the increasingly pivotal role of high-tech infrastructure in shaping macroeconomic outcomes.

Furman’s findings, shared online and echoed by financial analysts including Robert Armstrong of the Financial Times‘ Unhedged (the same writer who coined the term “TACO trade’), echo several months of observations on the remarkable surge in data-center infrastructure. In August, Renaissance Macro Research estimated, to date in 2025, the dollar value contributed to GDP growth by AI data-center buildout had surpassed U.S. consumer spending for the first time ever. That’s remarkable considering consumer spending is two-thirds of GDP.

Good thing that this isn’t a “bubble”.

 

[Pommer]

I just went food shopping and the prices are not going down at all.

But it’s cheaper to mine crypto!

 

[truthuprootsevil]

It seems like there haven't been many pointed discussions about the economy down in the US right now.
Seems that the DOW continues to improve.
Unemployment is at BEST, underwhelming.
The inflation on foods is becoming quite untenable for many.
Farming, as an American industry is on the brink of complete disaster (if we are to believe American farmers)

But I don't live there.

What are you passionate about here? What are the really GREAT things you see happenning? What are the troubling things?

I'm curious.

In a nutshell, if you low income economy is extremely bad / if you are in Middle income economy is fair / if you're in high-end income it really doesn't bother you but you will complain / if you're wealthy rich it can't touch you.

The low income has struggled all of their lives, so they do their best to adjust, they don't have a choice, it's nothing new.

Most Americans continue to rate the U.S. economy negatively as partisan gap widens

Nearly three-in-four U.S. adults (74%) say economic conditions are only fair or poor, up slightly from 72% in January 2024.

www.pewresearch.org

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-the-economy-is-good-why-do-some-americans-still-feel-like-everything-is-falling-apart-e7e5979e?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqeZ6I0EPa2-Ax93mfw_SrzocgfYp8LV50CG8y91iEGftMm-Shuz4V4f0laiyBg%3D&gaa_ts=68fab559&gaa_sig=_ItX8_ZbLwyLEwwBW1UiP_tTgaKoS0wC6nW5shkR5GudAUx8y1k3jbS8moPiwCSWaCBzO5flZzydL7cIejYt2g%3D%3D

https://thehill.com/business/5568006-trump-economy-inflation-jobs-pressure/

The decades-old exemption that lets Trump reconstruct the White House

The White House and several other buildings are exempt from the National Historic Preservation Act of 1966.

www.bbc.com

 

[camille70]

American farmers are hurting.

https://www.npr.org/2025/10/16/nx-s1-5575115/farmers-trump-trade-war-china

The president of the American Farm Bureau Federation warned the White House last week that more than half of U.S. farms are losing money, threatening small towns and rural economies.

Court records show farm bankruptcies in the 12 months ending in June were up 56% from the previous year. And that ominous trend has continued.

"We had five new farm cases in two weeks," says Joseph Peiffer, an attorney who helps farmers file for bankruptcy in Illinois, Iowa and Missouri. "That's astonishing. Shocking. And we're getting additional calls all the time."

 

[mark46]

Virginia’s GDP growth drops from 6.2% to 1.7%. Three new economic reports issue warnings about why and what comes next.

The reports also suggest the state may be losing high-wage jobs but gaining lower-wage jobs.

Virginia’s GDP growth drops from 6.2% to 1.7%. Three new economic reports issue warnings about why and what comes next.

The reports also suggest the state may be losing high-wage jobs but gaining lower-wage jobs.

cardinalnews.org

Three new economic reports that came out last week suggest that Virginia’s next governor is going to have to spend a lot of her time dealing with a sluggish economy.

The state’s two largest metro areas — read: Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, the state’s largest economic engines — are now losing jobs.
Virginia’s economic growth is now among the lowest in the country and is projected to remain slow through at least the first two years of the next governor’s term.

Unemployment is rising statewide and is projected to keep rising in 2026.
The three reports come from the Brookings Institution, Old Dominion University’s Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy and the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service. All three cite the same thing for this sour economic outlook — President Donald Trump’s policies, which have reduced federal employment and increased tariffs, both of which have hit Virginia uniquely hard because many of Virginia’s jobs have been tied to the federal government and beyond that the state has a trade-based economy

The government is downsizing.

VA will lose lots of jobs (MD too)
================

 

[mark46]

American farmers are hurting.

https://www.npr.org/2025/10/16/nx-s1-5575115/farmers-trump-trade-war-china

The president of the American Farm Bureau Federation warned the White House last week that more than half of U.S. farms are losing money, threatening small towns and rural economies.

Court records show farm bankruptcies in the 12 months ending in June were up 56% from the previous year. And that ominous trend has continued.

"We had five new farm cases in two weeks," says Joseph Peiffer, an attorney who helps farmers file for bankruptcy in Illinois, Iowa and Missouri. "That's astonishing. Shocking. And we're getting additional calls all the time."

It is here that I strongly agree with you.

The farmer, especially the non-corporate farmer, is being hurt.

Tariffs are really, really bad for farmers.

That being said, we need a revamp of our policies and regulations with regard to Agriculture (and water use).

 

[camille70]

It is here that I strongly agree with you.

The farmer, especially the non-corporate farmer, is being hurt.

Tariffs are really, really bad for farmers.

That being said, we need a revamp of our policies and regulations with regard to Agriculture (and water use).

Data centers are harming the water supply in the states where they have been built. They use a lot of water.

Meta announces huge new data centers, but they could gobble up millions of gallons of water per day

Meta announced its building gigantic data centers to power artificial intelligence tools. This is despite reports that the centers wreak havoc on local water supplies.

www.engadget.com

 

[mark46]

Data centers are harming the water supply in the states where they have been built. They use a lot of water.

Meta announces huge new data centers, but they could gobble up millions of gallons of water per day

Meta announced its building gigantic data centers to power artificial intelligence tools. This is despite reports that the centers wreak havoc on local water supplies.

www.engadget.com

Yes. we need a better water policy.

In any case, there are options other than building plants near water supplies of urban areas.

Regulation COULD favor centers that use less water. Or, even without intrusive regulation, water could cost more for commercial use. After all, the price of water is usually regulated by the state. Without a lot of complications, residential customers can simply be charged much less that businesses.
==========
As is often the case, the issue is mitigation.

We use a lot of energy. Data centers use a lot of energy. The answer is NOT necessarily to use less energy. Should we huddle in one corner of the house near the fireplace rather than heat to a comfortable temperature? Of course not.

There are lot of options for the production and use of energy and water. The federal government needs to do a better job in developing and enforcing energy and water policy.
===========
If you want to watch a state that is doing this right, look to NH. The now have a hydrogen plant. The also allow data centers to build power plants with reduced regulation as long as it is on the company's property and is not connected to the grid (thus protecting consumers from higher electricity costs).

 

[bèlla]

This is going to hurt us': U.S. ranchers push back on Trump’s Argentina beef deal

Farmers, ranchers and cattle producers are opposing President Trump’s plan to buy more beef from Argentina. Prices have jumped nearly 14% over the past year, and many cattle ranchers and farmers’ groups are concerned the move will come at their expense. Geoff Bennett discussed more with Buck Wehrbein, president of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association.

From CNN…

Argentina currently accounts for just over 2% of US beef imports. Under existing rules, it can ship up to 20,000 metric tons a year at a lower tariff rate, with anything above that subject to a 26.4% tariff, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

A White House official told CNN the administration plans to raise that quota to 80,000 metric tons, effectively quadrupling the amount of Argentinian beef with low tariffs that can enter the United States.

In an interview with Fox Business on Thursday, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said: “Currently, Americans consume 12 million metric tons of beef. 10 million, we produce in this country. 2 million, we import. Out of 12 million, [the Argentine quota] would be 20,000 every quarter. This is not a massive influx in the millions of tons I think that some have thought of beef from Argentina.”

On Wednesday, Trump reacted to the backlash from cattle ranchers.

“The Cattle Ranchers, who I love, don’t understand that the only reason they are doing so well, for the first time in decades, is because I put Tariffs on cattle coming into the United States, including a 50% Tariff on Brazil,” Trump wrote on social media. “It would be nice if they would understand that, but they also have to get their prices down, because the consumer is a very big factor in my thinking, also!” he added.

~bella

 

[bèlla]

Robots could replace 600,000 jobs at Amazon

There are new concerns that Amazon, the second-largest private employer in the country, may be planning one of the biggest workplace transformations in modern history.

The New York Times, citing leaked documents, reports Amazon expects sales to double by 2033. Growth that would normally require 600,000 more workers. But the company is reportedly looking to fill those jobs with robots and automate 75% of its operations. We could do this with our robot. We could do this with our technology. That's what we're going to do.