I don't know. Maybe you know more than ChatGPT and the experts it reviewed.You don't understand the factors involved. I have personally staffed military unit deployments...I know more questions to ask and situations that occur. It becomes a lot more expensive because it was a rushed call...they had to arrive within a week of notification, which negated many cost saving factors that could have occurred if they'd been given a couple of months warning.
Key assumptions (explicit & fixed)
- 400 generals (each on their own aircraft), 800 assistants → 1,200 people total. This is a low estimate.
- Origins: theater commands worldwide → average round-trip flight time ≈ 14 hours.
- Per-hour aircraft operating cost (per general’s aircraft): Low = $10k/hr, Mid = $20k/hr, High = $35k/hr.
- Assistants: average international last-minute travel $1,200 each.
- Lodging: $300 / room / night in the Washington DC area, assume 2 nights for 1,200 rooms.
- Local transfers: $250 / person.
- Base support, security, hangars, handling, admin overhead: 15% of subtotal.
- Rush/inefficiency multiplier (positioning, surge, extra tanker/standby costs, etc.): ×1.40.
Line-by-line math (per scenario)
Flights — generals (round trip 14 hr)
Assistants travel
- Low: $10,000/hr × 14 hr = $140,000 per general → 400 × $140,000 = $56,000,000
- Mid: $20,000/hr × 14 hr = $280,000 per general → 400 × $280,000 = $112,000,000
- High: $35,000/hr × 14 hr = $490,000 per general → 400 × $490,000 = $196,000,000
Lodging
- 800 × $1,200 = $960,000
Ground transfers
- 1,200 rooms × $300/night × 2 nights = $720,000
Subtotal (flights + assistants + lodging + ground)
- 1,200 × $250 = $300,000
Add 15% overhead (base support, security, hangars, admin)
- Low subtotal = $56,000,000 + 960,000 + 720,000 + 300,000 = $57,980,000
- Mid subtotal = $112,000,000 + 960,000 + 720,000 + 300,000 = $113,980,000
- High subtotal = $196,000,000 + 960,000 + 720,000 + 300,000 = $197,980,000
Apply 1.40 rush/inefficiency multiplier
- Low → $57,980,000 × 1.15 = $66,677,000
- Mid → $113,980,000 × 1.15 = $131,077,000
- High → $197,980,000 × 1.15 = $227,677,000
- Low (final): $66,677,000 × 1.4 = $93,347,800 → ≈ $93.3 million
- Mid (final): $131,077,000 × 1.4 = $183,507,800 → ≈ $183.5 million
- High (final): $227,677,000 × 1.4 = $318,747,800 → ≈ $318.7 million
Concise takeaway
- Best single mid-range estimate: ≈ $184 million.
- Plausible range given assumptions: ~$93 million (very optimistic) to ~$319 million (pessimistic).
- Biggest cost driver: per-hour aircraft cost × long global flight hours (i.e., the choice of VIP/strategic lift and lack of consolidation).
- Secondary drivers: rush/positioning inefficiencies, tanker/escort needs, and surge security/ground handling.
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