Weak summer labor market flashes warning signs for the economy

[FreeinChrist]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/09/05/jobs-report-economy-unemployment/

The U.S. labor market created few jobs in August and shrank earlier in the summer, a first since the pandemic, as the economy’s engine sputters under the weight of President Donald Trump’s economic policies.​

The economy added 22,000 jobs in August, far fewer than expected, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday morning. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3 percent, the highest since late 2021.​

In a sign that the labor market was weaker than previously understood this summer, job data from June was revised downward, reflecting a loss of 13,000 jobs, the first time the economy has lost jobs since December 2020, in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic.​

​

The U.S. added just 22,000 jobs in August, confirming dramatic slowdown in the labor market

The August report is the first since Trump fired a top Labor Department official over accusations of releasing inaccurate data.

www.nbcnews.com

Trump took office promising to turbocharge the U.S. economy. While it is still in solid shape by most metrics, it had begun to lose momentum at the conclusion of the Biden administration.​

​

Instead, Trump’s push to impose tariffs on imports into the U.S. — alongside his aggressive efforts to eliminate federal spending, many of which continue to face legal challenges — have sparked a wave of uncertainty that has made it difficult for businesses to hire more people.​

​

Those tariffs have also fueled ongoing concerns about rising prices. While inflation has dropped significantly from the highs seen following pandemic reopenings in 2022, many measures show it remains above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.​

 

[FreeinChrist]

Looks like we are in a recession, and now the Fed will have to lower rates to minimize

 

[Desk trauma]

Time to fire more statisticians.

 

[FreeinChrist]

Loading…

www.washingtonpost.com

Some golden age.​

Job growth is weak. Inflation is strong. The outlook is deteriorating. And the headwinds are blowing from Washington, D.C.​

​

Whether you blame President Donald Trump’s unorthodox tariff and immigration policies or a slow-footed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell, the federal government is not doing the economy any favors these days.​

​

The United States began the year having grown at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the final three months of 2024. Hiring was robust: employers added 323,000 jobs in December.​

Fast forward to today and the news is less cheery. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the economy added only 22,000 jobs in August, meaning the labor market has basically stalled since the president kicked off his historic “Liberation Day” tariff offensive in April. Some on Wall Street are mulling the likelihood of a recession.​

 

[Nithavela]

Remember: it has to get worse before it gets better!

 

[wing2000]

If you have a job, you better keep it.....outside Health Care and Hospitality, job openings are scare:


The Job Openings and Labor Turnover report showed around 7.18 million listings in July, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Wednesday. That’s only the second reading under the 7.2 million level since the end of 2020.

“This is a turning point for the labor market,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “It’s yet another crack.”

“This is yet another data point underscoring how this job market is frozen and it’s difficult for anyone to get a job right now,” Long added.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/03/job-opening-data-falls-to-levels-rarely-seen-since-pandemic.html

 

[NxNW]

Remember: it has to get worse before it gets better!

Or in Trump's case, it gets worse before it gets worse.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

The economy added 22,000 jobs in August, far fewer than expected, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday morning. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3 percent, the highest since late 2021.In a sign that the labor market was weaker than previously understood this summer, job data from June was revised downward, reflecting a loss of 13,000 jobs, the first time the economy has lost jobs since December 2020, in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic.

I don't know that these numbers constitute a "hit the panic button" scenario.

While there's a variety of factors in the mix, some of this is the result of "planned attrition"

Per NPR:
The federal government has shed some 97,000 jobs since the beginning of the year, and government payrolls are expected to shrink further in the coming months when severance payments to employees who took buyouts end.


The WaPo article is behind a paywall, so I can't see it to know whether or not they're differentiating between public and private sector jobs.


Per ADP:
Private sector employment increased by 54,000 jobs in August and pay was up 4.4 percent year-over-year according to the August ADP National Employment Report® produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ("Stanford Lab").




This is one reason why I don't like federal government jobs being part of the equation that dictates our conversation on "how good is our economy doing"...

It fosters 2 bad incentive structures.

1) Anytime an administration wants their numbers to be good (provided they have a friendly congress), they can pull some levers to add new federal jobs to increase job creation numbers, and decrease unemployment numbers

2) Any subsequent administration is going to be hesitant to ever un-do that, and eliminate those jobs due to A) federal workers unions making it difficult, and B) fear of making their own numbers look bad.


If folks recall, Jimmy Carter expanded public sector employment by a massive amount . When Bill Clinton had to un-do a portion of that a little later on down the road, it wasn't without flak and critiques about job loss.


If I were president, and had a congress that was somewhat friendly to me, I can create 80,000 positions for people to dig trenches with spoons and another 10,000 "oversight" positions for people to watch the guys digging with spoons.

"There were 90,000 jobs added in the first six months of the year, Rob's doing a great job as president!"

If my successor "President Carl" takes over, he's not going to be able to cut those jobs because (even if he thinks it's ridiculous) due to the fact that if he does, every headline will show "President Carl weak on jobs, 90k jobs lost in the first year of his term)


Few presidents have the "cojones" to take it on the chin and cut those jobs after the fact at the expense of their job numbers getting some bad PR for a few fiscal quarters. Clinton and Trump both did.


Time will tell if Trump's gamble on this works out as well as Clinton's did. Bill Clinton, in retrospect, is now considered to be one of the better presidencies on the economic front due to him leaving us with a balanced budget.

 

[wing2000]

I don't know that these numbers constitute a "hit the panic button" scenario.

No, those numbers don't warrant "panic". If the trend continues of reduced hiring continues in the private sector, however, the economy will be in trouble. Why are companies not hiring? Uncertainty.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

No, those numbers don't warrant "panic". If the trend continues of reduced hiring continues in the private sector, however, the economy will be in trouble. Why are companies not hiring? Uncertainty.

There must be a difference in the data being leveraged though...

If the WaPo article is suggesting that the US economy only added 22,000 jobs for August, but ADP is suggesting that 54,000 private sector jobs were added, there's a disconnect somewhere.

Either the WaPo article is including government jobs (which we know have been slashed), or there's some other difference not being enumerated in the calculation method (like one is only considering full time, and the other is considering full and part time jobs).

I also see where they were referencing December of 2024 as a comparison at one point...which is a bit of loaded tactic.

Late November through late December is when Retailers & shipping services (and likely a few other sectors) are bringing on large numbers of seasonal workers to accommodate the holiday season.

While economic uncertainty is certainly part of the equation, some of it is also due to the "AI chickens coming home to roost"

 

[rambot]

I don't know that these numbers constitute a "hit the panic button" scenario.

While there's a variety of factors in the mix, some of this is the result of "planned attrition"

Per NPR:
The federal government has shed some 97,000 jobs since the beginning of the year, and government payrolls are expected to shrink further in the coming months when severance payments to employees who took buyouts end.


The WaPo article is behind a paywall, so I can't see it to know whether or not they're differentiating between public and private sector jobs.


Per ADP:
Private sector employment increased by 54,000 jobs in August and pay was up 4.4 percent year-over-year according to the August ADP National Employment Report® produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ("Stanford Lab").




This is one reason why I don't like federal government jobs being part of the equation that dictates our conversation on "how good is our economy doing"...

It fosters 2 bad incentive structures.

1) Anytime an administration wants their numbers to be good (provided they have a friendly congress), they can pull some levers to add new federal jobs to increase job creation numbers, and decrease unemployment numbers

2) Any subsequent administration is going to be hesitant to ever un-do that, and eliminate those jobs due to A) federal workers unions making it difficult, and B) fear of making their own numbers look bad.


If folks recall, Jimmy Carter expanded public sector employment by a massive amount . When Bill Clinton had to un-do a portion of that a little later on down the road, it wasn't without flak and critiques about job loss.


If I were president, and had a congress that was somewhat friendly to me, I can create 80,000 positions for people to dig trenches with spoons and another 10,000 "oversight" positions for people to watch the guys digging with spoons.

"There were 90,000 jobs added in the first six months of the year, Rob's doing a great job as president!"

If my successor "President Carl" takes over, he's not going to be able to cut those jobs because (even if he thinks it's ridiculous) due to the fact that if he does, every headline will show "President Carl weak on jobs, 90k jobs lost in the first year of his term)


Few presidents have the "cojones" to take it on the chin and cut those jobs after the fact at the expense of their job numbers getting some bad PR for a few fiscal quarters. Clinton and Trump both did.


Time will tell if Trump's gamble on this works out as well as Clinton's did. Bill Clinton, in retrospect, is now considered to be one of the better presidencies on the economic front due to him leaving us with a balanced budget.

Unless I'm mistaken, summer job numbers have a tendency to grow A LOT (isn't that the reason why they always say "Seasonally adjusted"?)


I mean, it's SHOCKING to me that farmers are DYING for workers...and nobody is taking their jobs?

Where are all those red blooded Americans who are not affraid to work? Your country is getting soft I guess.