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Don't Trust the Voters

Tolkien R.R.J

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In Against Democracy, libertarian professor and political philosopher Jason Brennan argues voting is bad for most people. Based on sixty-five years of data, he shows how completely and efficiently the voting public is misinformed on vital issues each election. The majority of voters are even ignorant of what party is in power, and, for example, during a presidential election, only a minority knew which candidate was more “conservative” or “liberal.” They vote with this lack of knowledge, and it negatively affects you and me. Brennan wrote they “impose these ignorant and irrational decisions on innocent people.” In other words, as Brennan says, voting is not a victimless crime. Brennan declares “The mantra ‘Get out the vote! Every vote counts!’ is dangerous. Most citizens are not doing us any favor by voting. Asking everyone to vote is like asking everyone to litter.”

Numerous studies demonstrate people consume political information in a biased manner. It is not only their choice of biased sources, but they do not process information the same way they would non-political information. They suffer from confirmation bias and reject facts conflicting with their preconceived ideas. In short, they are not able to reason about political issues.

When consuming data outside of a political situation, test subjects are fine, but the same data placed in a political context will cause them to automatically conform it to their biases. In other words, when it comes to politics, we refuse to accept facts contrary to our preferences. It is more important to be within our herd than to admit we might be wrong.

In Democracy for Realists, and agreeing with Brennan, Professors Christopher H. Achen and Larry M. Bartels argue most voters have very little understanding of politics; for example, in a survey only 44% of voters could name at least one branch of our government. The typical voter’s knowledge amounts to what can be gained from headlines and talking points. Voters en masse do not understand policy, or how actions will affect them.

Not only are voters ignorant of relevant information needed to cast a logical vote, but they also believe many falsehoods when entering the voting booths. Often they unknowingly vote against their own declared interests and reasons for voting in the first place. A large section of voters for both parties would change their party if they were better informed. For example, many conservative media watchers would vote Democrat but what they “know” of the party makes it impossible to do so. Likewise with left-leaning media watchers; if they were “exposed” to the whole truth, many would vote Republican.

In The Myth of the Rational Voter, libertarian Professor Bryan Caplan’s research also corroborates these views. As he discovered, “voters are worse than ignorant; they are, in a word, irrational–and vote accordingly…emotion and ideology…powerfully sway human judgment.” Caplan argues that since an individual is powerless to change an election, and because they receive no direct negative consequences from an uninformed vote, taking time to research and give a well-informed decision is not seen as worth their time and energy. As a result, most votes are based on emotion and ideology rather than facts and informed reasoned choices.

Since the 1940s, researchers at Columbia University have been measuring the knowledge of voters. It has never been impressive, but the decay has increased in recent decades. Brennan quotes Ilya Somin, author of Democracy and Political Ignorance: “The sheer depth of most individual voters’ ignorance is shocking to many observers not familiar with the research.” This ignorance is prevalent among supporters of both parties in every election, on a wide array of subjects.

Not only does the average voter need to gain knowledge about basic politics and how our government functions, but they need to understand that what they think they know is often factually inaccurate. They would vote otherwise, were they better informed. Voters are ignorant of how policies would affect them, where politicians stand on issues, and how those elected officials act after the election. They are unaware of which candidate supported what position, and uninformed in many other areas. Outside of presidential elections, most voters would not know who to vote for without a “D” or an “R” next to the candidate’s name.

Because voters generally have no idea what is going on, they can’t hold politicians accountable after they are elected. Further, the vast majority of those studied could only repeat misinformation about the opposing party rather than describe their actual stances. In other words, voters only had one option because what they “knew” about the other candidate and their position was false. Which makes politicians’ supposed accountability to voters seem a myth.

Achen and Bartels also argue politicians are rarely held accountable for their actions, since most voters are ignorant of what policies have been enacted and how they affect them. Further, voters often oust or keep current politicians based on something other than policy, namely how things happen to be going at election time. Their judgment is rarely on the politician’s performance but on other influences such as natural disasters and even the success of local sports teams.

Emotion, rather than logic, is what motivates the majority of voters. Philosopher George Tollefson wrote:

“The French Revolution released irrational forces into western civilization…where emotion was seen to be the principal organ of insight and truth. People, it was thought, could reflect on and decide political and ethical issues based on how they ‘felt’…Most humans almost never reason. These latter individuals practice opinion, prejudice, wishful thinking, superstition, egoism.”
In agreement, Gustave Le Bon wrote, “The masses have never thirsted after truth. They turn aside from evidence that is not to their taste…Whoever can supply them with illusions is easily their master; whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim.”

Likewise, Scott Simon revealed this truth when he wrote, “A supporter once called out ‘Governor Stevenson, all thinking people are for you,’ and Adlai Stevenson answered, ‘That is not enough. I need a majority.'”

Based on his research, Brennan categorizes voters into various groups. First, “Vulcans” make up a tiny percentage of the voting population and remain unaffected by politics’ mental and emotional degradation. As a result, they can logically and rationally consume political information and make thoughtful decisions. Next “hobbits,” are those who don’t care about politics, don’t know much, and have no interest in it; they simply want to be left alone. The allure of controlling others via government force has no hold on them, similar to the allure of the One Ring hobbits resist so well.

However, “hooligans” make up most of the voting population; they see politics as a team sport and are “beset by cognitive biases, such as confirmation bias or intergroup bias.” Political parties become, for many, a team sport where both rivals wave flags and symbols and scream slogans at each other. As a result, they become furious and feel hatred toward others on the opposing team. Politics brings out the worst in some, dividing families, churches, and communities. I have noticed this among my customers; when the more politically active types meet people for the first time, they will often recite a section of the party creed, throwing out a signal to see if they get a friendly response. Once this is achieved and they know they are on the same team, they feel empowered to begin trashing the dissenting party.

When it comes to politics, hooligans stop thinking logically and enter into a tribal good-versus-evil mode. They cannot seek to understand those from the other side, and this mindset breeds hatred. Becoming involved in politics is like a viral vector for phronemophobia. I think it is partly why each party demonizes the other; to justify the abuses they will inflict on them when they come to power. They must demonize the other side in the eyes of their voters to morally justify obliterating their enemies’ self-rule. They must show their voters the other side cannot govern itself.

Getting involved in politics causes hatred; we demonize others outside of our tribe, making us think irrationally. Brennan said, “Politics… pulls us apart, stultifies and corrupts us, and makes us civil enemies.” Again, Brennan writes:

“Hooligans are the rabid sports fans of politics…hooligans consume political information, although in a biased way. They tend to seek out information that confirms their preexisting political opinions but ignore, evade, and reject out of hand evidence that contradicts or disconfirms their preexisting opinions…cherry-pick data and tend only to learn about research that supports their own views…Their political opinions are part of their identity, and they are proud to be a member of their political team. For them, belonging to the Democrats or Republicans…matters to self-image, in the same way, being Christian or Muslim matters to religious people’s self-image. They tend to despise people who disagree with them, holding that people with alternative worldviews are stupid, evil, selfish, or at best, deeply misguided. Most regular voters, active political participants, activists, registered party members, and politicians are hooligans.”
Numerous studies from multiple researchers demonstrate emotion is intertwined when discussing politics, and people stop thinking logically. The brain releases pleasure responses when party members are given information revealing opposing politicians as hypocrites, allowing them to be criticized. The same happened when they defended members within their party for the identical actions. Many believe this pleasure response becomes addictive, like cigarettes and caffeine. Likewise, people watch their favorite political shows for the same reason; their brain generates these chemical responses as their source reinforces their position and ridicules the opposition.

Voters are willing to accept and defend actions of members of their party they condemn in others. When told the opposing party held a position they would condemn it harshly, but when it was revealed it was their party’s position, they did a 360, now defending it. Hypocrisy is innate in the thought of the typical voter. We would rather do less work and believe what we want than do more work and challenge our cherished views.

An alarming study showed that if nine people (who, unknown to the tenth, were shills working with the researcher) gave the wrong answer to an easy, straightforward question, the tenth, being the test subject, would give the wrong answer 75% of the time. Brain analysis showed these subjects actually believed their statements were factual; they were not just trying to fit in. This is precisely why mob politics (democracy) is the perfect political system to enable a population to accept falsehoods.
 

Gene2memE

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In Against Democracy, libertarian professor and political philosopher Jason Brennan argues voting is bad for most people. Based on sixty-five years of data, he shows how completely and efficiently the voting public is misinformed on vital issues each election.

Dr. Brennan is an interesting writer, but I think Against Democracy is a fundamentally flawed book. He advocates against universal suffrage based on the supposed flaws of individual voters, and argues for various flavours of epistocratic/noocratic democracy with a meritocratic voter base.

It's been a long time since I read the book, but I recall thinking that his central argument - that more informed/educated voters will somehow make better and more rational decisions - was just assumed. It was always something of 'it just feels right (to me)' argument. He's taken Churchill's quip 'The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter' and structured it through an analytical framework.

He also makes only the most fig leafed of examinations of the problems of implementation and potential flaws of various forms of epistocratic democracy. I don't recall him really digging into any of the objections or critiques to his arguments (and there are plenty around).

What struck me most though was that his critiques of democracy are primarily oriented around individualism/problems of individualism and really glosses over notions of group benefit. I'd say this is a reflection of his libertarianism.

I think this is a major problem for the book. At anything other than the smallest scales, modern democracy is a collectivist pursuit with collectivist outcomes. Individuals group together to form political entities, and these entities operate collectively. And these groups are capable of acting in their interests and generating political power and outcomes that are disproportionate to their individual voting power. Just ask the NRA, Citizens United, Phyllis Schafley or Roger Stone.
 
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Tolkien R.R.J

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Dr. Brennan is an interesting writer, but I think Against Democracy is a fundamentally flawed book. He advocates against universal suffrage based on the supposed flaws of individual voters, and argues for various flavours of epistocratic/noocratic democracy with a meritocratic voter base.

It's been a long time since I read the book, but I recall thinking that his central argument - that more informed/educated voters will somehow make better and more rational decisions - was just assumed. It was always something of 'it just feels right (to me)' argument. He's taken Churchill's quip 'The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter' and structured it through an analytical framework.

He also makes only the most fig leafed of examinations of the problems of implementation and potential flaws of various forms of epistocratic democracy. I don't recall him really digging into any of the objections or critiques to his arguments (and there are plenty around).

What struck me most though was that his critiques of democracy are primarily oriented around individualism/problems of individualism and really glosses over notions of group benefit. I'd say this is a reflection of his libertarianism.

I think this is a major problem for the book. At anything other than the smallest scales, modern democracy is a collectivist pursuit with collectivist outcomes. Individuals group together to form political entities, and these entities operate collectively. And these groups are capable of acting in their interests and generating political power and outcomes that are disproportionate to their individual voting power. Just ask the NRA, Citizens United, Phyllis Schafley or Roger Stone.

Great post. But I don't advocate for his form of governance, but i do agree with his critiques (for the most part) of democracy and voter ignorance.
 
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Larniavc

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In Against Democracy, libertarian professor and political philosopher Jason Brennan argues voting is bad for most people. Based on sixty-five years of data, he shows how completely and efficiently the voting public is misinformed on vital issues each election. The majority of voters are even ignorant of what party is in power, and, for example, during a presidential election, only a minority knew which candidate was more “conservative” or “liberal.” They vote with this lack of knowledge, and it negatively affects you and me. Brennan wrote they “impose these ignorant and irrational decisions on innocent people.” In other words, as Brennan says, voting is not a victimless crime. Brennan declares “The mantra ‘Get out the vote! Every vote counts!’ is dangerous. Most citizens are not doing us any favor by voting. Asking everyone to vote is like asking everyone to litter.”

Numerous studies demonstrate people consume political information in a biased manner. It is not only their choice of biased sources, but they do not process information the same way they would non-political information. They suffer from confirmation bias and reject facts conflicting with their preconceived ideas. In short, they are not able to reason about political issues.

When consuming data outside of a political situation, test subjects are fine, but the same data placed in a political context will cause them to automatically conform it to their biases. In other words, when it comes to politics, we refuse to accept facts contrary to our preferences. It is more important to be within our herd than to admit we might be wrong.

In Democracy for Realists, and agreeing with Brennan, Professors Christopher H. Achen and Larry M. Bartels argue most voters have very little understanding of politics; for example, in a survey only 44% of voters could name at least one branch of our government. The typical voter’s knowledge amounts to what can be gained from headlines and talking points. Voters en masse do not understand policy, or how actions will affect them.

Not only are voters ignorant of relevant information needed to cast a logical vote, but they also believe many falsehoods when entering the voting booths. Often they unknowingly vote against their own declared interests and reasons for voting in the first place. A large section of voters for both parties would change their party if they were better informed. For example, many conservative media watchers would vote Democrat but what they “know” of the party makes it impossible to do so. Likewise with left-leaning media watchers; if they were “exposed” to the whole truth, many would vote Republican.

In The Myth of the Rational Voter, libertarian Professor Bryan Caplan’s research also corroborates these views. As he discovered, “voters are worse than ignorant; they are, in a word, irrational–and vote accordingly…emotion and ideology…powerfully sway human judgment.” Caplan argues that since an individual is powerless to change an election, and because they receive no direct negative consequences from an uninformed vote, taking time to research and give a well-informed decision is not seen as worth their time and energy. As a result, most votes are based on emotion and ideology rather than facts and informed reasoned choices.

Since the 1940s, researchers at Columbia University have been measuring the knowledge of voters. It has never been impressive, but the decay has increased in recent decades. Brennan quotes Ilya Somin, author of Democracy and Political Ignorance: “The sheer depth of most individual voters’ ignorance is shocking to many observers not familiar with the research.” This ignorance is prevalent among supporters of both parties in every election, on a wide array of subjects.

Not only does the average voter need to gain knowledge about basic politics and how our government functions, but they need to understand that what they think they know is often factually inaccurate. They would vote otherwise, were they better informed. Voters are ignorant of how policies would affect them, where politicians stand on issues, and how those elected officials act after the election. They are unaware of which candidate supported what position, and uninformed in many other areas. Outside of presidential elections, most voters would not know who to vote for without a “D” or an “R” next to the candidate’s name.

Because voters generally have no idea what is going on, they can’t hold politicians accountable after they are elected. Further, the vast majority of those studied could only repeat misinformation about the opposing party rather than describe their actual stances. In other words, voters only had one option because what they “knew” about the other candidate and their position was false. Which makes politicians’ supposed accountability to voters seem a myth.

Achen and Bartels also argue politicians are rarely held accountable for their actions, since most voters are ignorant of what policies have been enacted and how they affect them. Further, voters often oust or keep current politicians based on something other than policy, namely how things happen to be going at election time. Their judgment is rarely on the politician’s performance but on other influences such as natural disasters and even the success of local sports teams.

Emotion, rather than logic, is what motivates the majority of voters. Philosopher George Tollefson wrote:


In agreement, Gustave Le Bon wrote, “The masses have never thirsted after truth. They turn aside from evidence that is not to their taste…Whoever can supply them with illusions is easily their master; whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim.”

Likewise, Scott Simon revealed this truth when he wrote, “A supporter once called out ‘Governor Stevenson, all thinking people are for you,’ and Adlai Stevenson answered, ‘That is not enough. I need a majority.'”

Based on his research, Brennan categorizes voters into various groups. First, “Vulcans” make up a tiny percentage of the voting population and remain unaffected by politics’ mental and emotional degradation. As a result, they can logically and rationally consume political information and make thoughtful decisions. Next “hobbits,” are those who don’t care about politics, don’t know much, and have no interest in it; they simply want to be left alone. The allure of controlling others via government force has no hold on them, similar to the allure of the One Ring hobbits resist so well.

However, “hooligans” make up most of the voting population; they see politics as a team sport and are “beset by cognitive biases, such as confirmation bias or intergroup bias.” Political parties become, for many, a team sport where both rivals wave flags and symbols and scream slogans at each other. As a result, they become furious and feel hatred toward others on the opposing team. Politics brings out the worst in some, dividing families, churches, and communities. I have noticed this among my customers; when the more politically active types meet people for the first time, they will often recite a section of the party creed, throwing out a signal to see if they get a friendly response. Once this is achieved and they know they are on the same team, they feel empowered to begin trashing the dissenting party.

When it comes to politics, hooligans stop thinking logically and enter into a tribal good-versus-evil mode. They cannot seek to understand those from the other side, and this mindset breeds hatred. Becoming involved in politics is like a viral vector for phronemophobia. I think it is partly why each party demonizes the other; to justify the abuses they will inflict on them when they come to power. They must demonize the other side in the eyes of their voters to morally justify obliterating their enemies’ self-rule. They must show their voters the other side cannot govern itself.

Getting involved in politics causes hatred; we demonize others outside of our tribe, making us think irrationally. Brennan said, “Politics… pulls us apart, stultifies and corrupts us, and makes us civil enemies.” Again, Brennan writes:


Numerous studies from multiple researchers demonstrate emotion is intertwined when discussing politics, and people stop thinking logically. The brain releases pleasure responses when party members are given information revealing opposing politicians as hypocrites, allowing them to be criticized. The same happened when they defended members within their party for the identical actions. Many believe this pleasure response becomes addictive, like cigarettes and caffeine. Likewise, people watch their favorite political shows for the same reason; their brain generates these chemical responses as their source reinforces their position and ridicules the opposition.

Voters are willing to accept and defend actions of members of their party they condemn in others. When told the opposing party held a position they would condemn it harshly, but when it was revealed it was their party’s position, they did a 360, now defending it. Hypocrisy is innate in the thought of the typical voter. We would rather do less work and believe what we want than do more work and challenge our cherished views.

An alarming study showed that if nine people (who, unknown to the tenth, were shills working with the researcher) gave the wrong answer to an easy, straightforward question, the tenth, being the test subject, would give the wrong answer 75% of the time. Brain analysis showed these subjects actually believed their statements were factual; they were not just trying to fit in. This is precisely why mob politics (democracy) is the perfect political system to enable a population to accept falsehoods.
I think Managed Democracy should be used. Voters have to fill in a multiple choice questionnaire with answers tallied falling into one of several validated categories. The winner gets in power.

Then people apply for the jobs in government and are interviewed with specific role critical requirements.

If the successful applicant cannot meet KPIs they get the sack like any other job.

This way talented, not rich and popular are in charge.
 
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Gene2memE

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I propose a similar solution - retain universal suffrage, but impose severe limits on electoral candidate selection.

Candidates for any elected role must be able to pass tests based around knowledge, skills and applied competencies. The more important, meaningful and impactful the desired role, the more difficult and lengthy the testing. The testing for a lifetime judicial appointment or a presidential candidate should be substantially different from the testing for a city councillor or school board member.

The old English model of public service examinations would be a good starting point. India's current Civil Service Exam provides a model - multiple rounds of testing, conducted over a lengthy period of time (I think it's 12 months) with multiple different elements (there's a verbal exam/interview, a series of general knowledge exams and then another series of exams/assessments based around competencies and practical applications). I think the pass rate is about 1-2%, and you're only allowed a set number of attempts.

That way, no matter who the voter votes for, they know they're going to end up with a candidate that is qualified for the role they are seeking.

There are - of course - dangers and drawbacks to this. It may just end up creating a political class whose main skill is scoring high on tests (this was a common complaint of many English-style civil services). It may also discourage electoral participation by people who are potentially good leaders, but don't perform will in examination-type scenarios. Perverse incentives abound
 
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