Trump says he wants to deport ‘the worst of the worst,’ but ICE data shows 72% of people detained have no criminal convictions

[expos4ever]

58 thousand out of an estimated 11 million unauthorized immigrants, means 0.53% of them have been detained. As for the usual anonymous informants, that's 12 out of 8,500 assigned to Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO). Which is 0.14%.

So in summary, 0.53% of unauthorized immigrants have been detained. And 0.14% of ICE enforcement officers say they're worn out.

I think some nuance is required here. You appear to be implying that 12 out 8,500 claim to be worn out. That is not, I believe, what is going on. As I read the OP, we have been told that the 12 that were interviewed claim to be worn out. You appear to be implying that the other 8,488 are not. That is not a legitimate inference. In fact, if 12 out of 12 people interviewed are worn out, then there is every reason to believe that the majority of the 8,500 are also worn out.

To be fair to you, however, the text of OP is not precise as to how these 12 were chosen. And perhaps others were interviewed who are indeed happy in their jobs and this is not being reported.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Now on one hand I'm hearing that not only are they going to deport all unauthorized immigrants

Trump has stated that as his goal.

Appearing on NBC's Meet the Press, Trump said his goal was to deport every undocumented immigrant in the country.

KRISTEN WELKER:

But is it your plan to deport everyone who is here illegally over the next four years?

PRESIDENT-ELECT DONALD TRUMP:

Well, I think you have to do it, and it’s a hard — it’s a very tough thing to do. It’s — but you have to have, you know, you have rules, regulations, laws. They came in illegally.

 

[Pommer]

The “wisdom” of pushing out 2% of the consumers in a consumer-based economy has always eluded me.

 

[ozso]

I think some nuance is required here. You appear to be implying that 12 out 8,500 claim to be worn out. That is not, I believe, what is going on. As I read the OP, we have been told that the 12 that were interviewed claim to be worn out. You appear to be implying that the other 8,488 are not. That is not a legitimate inference. In fact, if 12 out of 12 people interviewed are worn out, then there is every reason to believe that the majority of the 8,500 are also worn out.

To be fair to you, however, the text of OP is not precise as to how these 12 were chosen. And perhaps others were interviewed who are indeed happy in their jobs and this is not being reported.

Well that's the thing. He doesn't say how many he interviewed. I just know based on what I read that there's at least 8500 of them. And 12 say they're pooped. So what about the other 8488? 12 people isn't much to go by. And of course since they're anonymous there's no way to verify who said exactly what. It's not like there's 12 written statements that I know of. Also getting people to complain about their job is pretty easy in my experience.

 

[A2SG]

PRESIDENT-ELECT DONALD TRUMP:

...but you have to have, you know, you have rules, regulations, laws.

-- A2SG, nothing more need be said.....

 

[Larniavc]

I thought that his base wanted deportation of all undocumented immigrants.

I guess they must be livid then.

 

[dogs4thewin]

What about the other 7 million unauthorized immigrants?

Wll I guess Trump is not stupid enough to think he can deport everyone. There is simply not enough resources or bed space for that.

 

[wing2000]

He promised to go after criminals, now those groups like the Floridian Cuban MAGA bloc are finding out far more than just criminals. But yes, it has always been about deporting the brown folks, criminals or not. Not complicated at least to me at all.

"Gallup polls show that only 35% of Americans approve of Trump’s immigration policy with 62% opposed. A new poll out from CBS News/ YouGov today shows that support for Trump’s deportations has dropped ten points from the start of his term, from 59% to 49%. Fifty-eight percent of Americans oppose the administration’s use of detention facilities. The numbers in a CNN/SSRS poll released today are even more negative for the administration: 59% of Americans oppose deporting undocumented immigrants without a criminal record while only 23% support such deportations, and 57% are opposed to building new detention facilities while only 26% support such a plan."

July 20, 2025

On Friday, G.

open.substack.com

 

[DaisyDay]

Luis Leon, 82, lost his wallet which contained his green card issued in 1987 after receiving asylum from Chile post-torture. He went with his wife to an immigration office in Philadelphia for a replacement. From there, he was disappeared.

Update: Family says Allentown grandfather in Guatemala after ICE arrest, but country says it has no records of him

Luis Leon is recovering from pneumonia in a Guatemala hospital, his granddaughter said Sunday. He does not plan to return to the U.S. after being taken into ICE custody last month.

www.mcall.com

Until Saturday, the last time family had seen Leon was June 20, after he and his wife went to the Philadelphia office to replace Leon’s lost green card, Nataly said. As they waited in a second-floor room, Leon’s wife told family members, he was placed in handcuffs by two officers and escorted out.

She was left behind, spending 10 hours in a room until she was finally released to her granddaughter. No one from the government ever told the family why, or where, Leon was taken, Nataly said.

Leon told Nataly his phone was taken away and that when he demanded information, Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers — who addressed him and several other detainees on the bus as “Mario” — said Leon had no rights in the United States....

...According to Nataly, a Chilean government contact of Leon’s brother was able to reach an official here who told him Leon had been taken to Minnesota, then to Guatemala. It isn’t clear if that official was from ICE or another government agency. Leon fled Chile in 1987 to escape the dictatorial regime of Augusto Pinochet.

It’s also unclear whether Leon had a deportation hearing before he was sent to Guatemala, which has an agreement with the U.S. to accept deportees from other nations. Deportees typically arrive for processing at La Aurora Air Force Base in Guatemala City and are then sent to temporary shelters.

Nataly said she isn’t sure where her grandfather spent the time between his arrival and his hospitalization because her time with him has been limited.

He told her he tried to contact his family but, because he didn’t have his phone, couldn’t provide phone numbers.​

 

[CRAZY_CAT_WOMAN]

Wll I guess Trump is not stupid enough to think he can deport everyone. There is simply not enough resources or bed space for that.

I guess that's why he want to rebuild Alcatraz.

 

[dogs4thewin]

I guess that's why he want to rebuild Alcatraz.

Which is crazy as costly as it will be to both rebuild and run.

 

[The Barbarian]

So in summary, 0.53% of unauthorized immigrants have been detained. And 0.14% of ICE enforcement officers say they're worn out.

Precisely . This is why Obama tasked immigration enforcement against those few illegal immigrants who had committed serious crimes. That takes a lot more know-how than putting on a mask and grabbing Hispanic-looking people off the street. But it actually makes American safer. Do you realize the economic impact of deporting all the people who are here illegally?

The following papers are organized from the broadest in their analyses to narrower analyses that looked at particular populations or types of impact:
• McKibbon (2024) estimated that deporting 7.5 million unauthorized immigrant workers would result in a long-run drop in U.S. GDP of 6.2 percent ($1.7 trillion at 2023 levels), a reduction in hours worked in the country by 3.6 percent, and three years of higher inflation—peaking at an increase in the inflation rate of 3.1 percentage points. Deporting 1.3 million people was estimated to drop U.S. GDP by 1.1 percent ($300 billion at 2023 levels), hours worked by 0.6 percent, and trigger additional inflation peaking at a 0.5 percentage point increase.13

https://carsey.unh.edu/sites/default/files/media/2024-08/economic-impact-mass-deportation-lit-review.pdf

 

[eclipsenow]

 

[wing2000]

View attachment 367857

Double win (for MAGA). Deporting a "criminal" (pot posession) and a scientest (researching vaccines)!

 

[rjs330]

View attachment 367857

I thought they were only deporting brown people.

 

[rjs330]

Precisely . This is why Obama tasked immigration enforcement against those few illegal immigrants who had committed serious crimes. That takes a lot more know-how than putting on a mask and grabbing Hispanic-looking people off the street. But it actually makes American safer. Do you realize the economic impact of deporting all the people who are here illegally?

The following papers are organized from the broadest in their analyses to narrower analyses that looked at particular populations or types of impact:
• McKibbon (2024) estimated that deporting 7.5 million unauthorized immigrant workers would result in a long-run drop in U.S. GDP of 6.2 percent ($1.7 trillion at 2023 levels), a reduction in hours worked in the country by 3.6 percent, and three years of higher inflation—peaking at an increase in the inflation rate of 3.1 percentage points. Deporting 1.3 million people was estimated to drop U.S. GDP by 1.1 percent ($300 billion at 2023 levels), hours worked by 0.6 percent, and trigger additional inflation peaking at a 0.5 percentage point increase.13

https://carsey.unh.edu/sites/default/files/media/2024-08/economic-impact-mass-deportation-lit-review.pdf

Oh gee, more "the sky is falling" rhetoric? Here we are, 6 months from the inauguration and America is chugging along just fine. The economy hasn't collapsed, world war 3 hasn't happened and the planet hasn't burned up. We can't deport all illegals at this point anyway. We just dont have enough resources to do that. But we end up with half of them including the self deported thats great progress. I guess we'll see if we can get that far. Im not sure we can.

 

[essentialsaltes]

ICE says detained Maine police officer overstayed visa. The chief says he cleared a federal check​

Old Orchard Beach Police Chief Elise Chard said in her own Monday statement that the U.S. Department of Homeland Security had verified that Evans was authorized to work in the U.S. in May of this year.

 

[The Barbarian]

Oh gee, more "the sky is falling" rhetoric?

Trump has yet to deport even a large fraction of the undocumented workers in America. So the economic hit isn't that big a deal now. If he manages to do that, there will be an economic cost, as you have seen.

Here we are, 6 months from the inauguration and America is chugging along just fine.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent.

www.bea.gov

The economy hasn't collapsed

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.1 percent from May to June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.2 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.3 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

Real Earnings Summary - 2025 M06 Results

www.bls.gov

Economy is getting worse, but not so bad yet. But real earnings will drop more steeply, if the Fed cuts interest rates, booting inflation. Again, Trump's failure (so far) to deport a large proportion of illegal workers has meant that the damage is minor to date.

We can't deport all illegals at this point anyway. We just dont have enough resources to do that. But we end up with half of them including the self deported thats great progress.

• McKibbon (2024) estimated that deporting 7.5 million unauthorized immigrant workers would result in a long-run drop in U.S. GDP of 6.2 percent ($1.7 trillion at 2023 levels), a reduction in hours worked in the country by 3.6 percent, and three years of higher inflation—peaking at an increase in the inflation rate of 3.1 percentage points. Deporting 1.3 million people was estimated to drop U.S. GDP by 1.1 percent ($300 billion at 2023 levels), hours worked by 0.6 percent, and trigger additional inflation peaking at a 0.5 percentage point increase.13

https://carsey.unh.edu/sites/default/files/media/2024-08/economic-impact-mass-deportation-lit-review.pdf
If we only deport a fraction of them, the damage would be correspondingly less severe.

The point is to deport those relatively few illegal workers who are serious criminals. But that requires skill and effort. It's easier to hire goons who grab people who look brown and sort it out later. And even the goons are demoralized:

The reality of Trump’s mass-deportation campaign is far less glamorous. Officers and agents have spent much of the past five months clocking weekends and waking up at 4 a.m. for predawn raids. Their top leaders have been ousted or demoted, and their supervisors—themselves under threat of being fired—are pressuring them to make more and more arrests to meet quotas set by the Trump adviser Stephen Miller. Having insisted for years that capturing criminals is its priority, ICE is now shelving major criminal investigations to prioritize civil immigration arrests, grabbing asylum seekers at their courthouse hearings, handcuffing mothers as their U.S.-citizen children cry, chasing day laborers through Home Depot parking lots. As angry onlookers attempt to shame ICE officers with obscenities, and activists try to dox them, officers are retreating further behind masks and tactical gear.

Trump Loves ICE. Its Workforce Has Never Been So Miserable.

A “mission impossible” deportation campaign has left many employees burned out and morally conflicted.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[mark46]

I think that we should distinguish between detaining and deporting.
============================
I don't like the tactics of ICE. These tactics will change (perhaps for the better, perhaps for the worst) now that they will have detention facilities and much more money. Perhaps businessfolk will convince Trump to exclude certain industries.
============================
THE GOAL OF DEPORTING UNDOCUMENTED FOLKS WITH VIOLENT CRIMINAL CONVICTIONF OR EXISTING DEPORTATION ORDERS
1) I support that goal.
2) I support the deportation of those undocumented who have come in the past 5 years.
3) To get these folks, I accept detaining lots of folks (WITH CAUSE). This will definitely include a majority who do not have criminal records. The issue is how the government decides who to DEPORT. Detaining folks could lead to a smaller percentage of deportations compared with the easier Trump strategy of simply arresting them and deporting with no due process or even investigation. Because of past government failures, many innocent people will end up being detained while their status is investigated. Obviously, the detention camps should NOT resemble the current ones. My guess is that this method will continue with the next president. METHOD: 1) have reasonable suspicion, 2) detain, 3) investigate and have appropriate judicial proceedings, 4) deport or set free with a path to legal status.
4) The current rates of deportation are tiny compared to those of Obama.
5) Add those who have come in the last 5 years, those with existing deportation order and those who have conviction of a violent crime. My guess is that this total is many time the goal of 4 million. We SHOULD fight the methods but not the goal which is indeed what got Trump elected and a majority of Americans approve.