Rfk drops ball

[stevil]

I mostly agree with that. Trying to equate the importance of COVID vaccines with the importance of MMR was remarkably foolish. At best, the COVID vaccines provide minimal, transient benefit to most people. The exception might be those that were very elderly and/or immunocompromised people. But there was never any justification for mandating it on healthy college-age students, and that mandate has caused immense and justifiable damage to trust in public health authorities.



Probably not nearly as many as you think.

When you have a population of 360 Million, it only takes a small percentage and then whoops, there goes another million people. Oh well, they were old or compromised anyway, they would have died soon or later. Whoops.

 

[BPPLEE]

When you have a population of 360 Million, it only takes a small percentage and then whoops, there goes another million people. Oh well, they were old or compromised anyway, they would have died soon or later. Whoops.

Yeah, just like with the flu

 

[stevil]

I thought he said there wasn't enough research

He is trying to put doubt into all the research that has been done that says the vaccines are pretty darn safe, and more beneficial than not being vaccinated.

He is contributing to all the vaccine hesitency, which ultimately contributes to kids not being vaccinated and then outbreaks of a disease that would otherwise almost be irradicated.

 

[stevil]

Yeah, just like with the flu

Oh boy, not that again. It's just like the flu, just get your tissues ready and have a bowl of chicken soup, you'll probably survive.

 

[probinson]

When you have a population of 360 Million, it only takes a small percentage and then whoops, there goes another million people. Oh well, they were old or compromised anyway, they would have died soon or later. Whoops.

Likewise, when you vaccinate 360 million people, it only takes a small percentage of adverse events and then...

 

[probinson]

He is trying to put doubt into all the research that has been done that says the vaccines are pretty darn safe, and more beneficial than not being vaccinated.

That doubt already exists. I guess you think telling people to just shut up and trust the public health authorities is the answer. Personally, I don't think that's going to be very effective.

He is contributing to all the vaccine hesitency, which ultimately contributes to kids not being vaccinated and then outbreaks of a disease that would otherwise almost be irradicated.

The biggest contribution to vaccine hesitancy was the overselling of COVID vaccines. You fail to acknowledge that anti-vaxxers have been making these claims for years. Yet it was not until 2021 that we began to see a concerning decline in childhood vaccination rates. Hmmm. I wonder what happened in 2021 to result in lower vaccine uptake. Let's think real hard...

 

[BPPLEE]

Oh boy, not that again. It's just like the flu, just get your tissues ready and have a bowl of chicken soup, you'll probably survive.

The vaccine didn't stop me from getting COVID and didn't stop my friend from dying of Covid

 

[probinson]

The vaccine didn't stop me from getting COVID and didn't stop my friend from dying of Covid

Must've been one of those "rare" breakthrough cases.

But in all seriousness, I am genuinely sorry for the loss of your friend.

 

[BPPLEE]

Must've been one of those "rare" breakthrough cases.

But in all seriousness, I am genuinely sorry for the loss of your friend.

I've had it twice and it was like a cold. He had both shots and a booster and died

 

[stevil]

The vaccine didn't stop me from getting COVID and didn't stop my friend from dying of Covid

Do you understand how percentages work?

Having the vaccine doesn't guarantee you won't catch the disease, it is mostly likely you will. And it doesn't guarantee a person won't die of the disease, however it greatly increases their chances of survival.

Sorry about your friend BTW.

 

[stevil]

That doubt already exists. I guess you think telling people to just shut up and trust the public health authorities is the answer. Personally, I don't think that's going to be very effective.

That's not the approach I would take.
It depends what thing you are trying to prove.
For example this nonsense about vaccines causing autism.
I'd refer to research on this point. Comparrisons of like for like large groups, where group A is vaccinated and group B isn't.

The biggest contribution to vaccine hesitancy was the overselling of COVID vaccines.

No, in USA it is mostly because Right wing media personalities and the identity of the MAGA right became an anti Covid vaccine as well as anti anything to try and save lives during the pandemic. They hung that flag as a point of difference from "the left" and as a "anti establishment" thing.

Vaccine hesitancy was mostly with those watching right wing USA media and those identifying as MAGA.

 

[BPPLEE]

Do you understand how percentages work?

Having the vaccine doesn't guarantee you won't catch the disease, it is mostly likely you will. And it doesn't guarantee a person won't die of the disease, however it greatly increases their chances of survival.

Sorry about your friend BTW.

Do you understand what we were told?

AP FACT CHECK: Biden goes too far in assurances on vaccines

President Joe Biden is offering what sounds like an absolute guarantee: If you're vaccinated, you won't get COVID-19. You won't end up in the hospital or die from it.

apnews.com

 

[stevil]

Likewise, when you vaccinate 360 million people, it only takes a small percentage of adverse events and then...

Yip, so you compare the outcomes. Maybe 2 million dead through not vaccinating, maybe 100 dead through vaccinating, then you make your decision.

 

[probinson]

Do you understand how percentages work?

Yes.

Having the vaccine doesn't guarantee you won't catch the disease, it is mostly likely you will. And it doesn't guarantee a person won't die of the disease, however it greatly increases their chances of survival.

Step into my Time Machine and let's go back to 2021 when the vaccines were first launched. This is absolutely NOT what we were told. In their zeal to convince everyone to get vaccinated, we were told that once you had the vaccine, you would not get infected. Mr. SCIENCE himself, Dr. Fauci, said this:

“So even though there are breakthrough infections with vaccinated people, almost always the people are asymptomatic and the level of virus is so low it makes it extremely unlikely — not impossible but very, very low likelihood — that they’re going to transmit it.”​

​

...​

​

“When you get vaccinated, you not only protect your own health and that of the family but also you contribute to the community health by preventing the spread of the virus throughout the community,” Fauci said. “In other words, you become a dead end to the virus. And when there are a lot of dead ends around, the virus is not going to go anywhere. And that’s when you get a point that you have a markedly diminished rate of infection in the community.”​

​

Fauci: Vaccinated people become ‘dead ends’ for the coronavirus

Anthony Fauci, chief medical adviser to President Biden, said during a discussion on Sunday about the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) decision to drop mask recommendati…

thehill.com

​

The idea that the vaccine "greatly increases their chances of survival" is also a rather dubious claim, as most people's chance of survival was somewhere in the neighborhood of 99.7% BEFORE the vaccine was available.

 

[probinson]

Yip, so you compare the outcomes. Maybe 2 million dead through not vaccinating,

If you think 2 million MORE people would have died in the US than actually did, I have some oceanfront property in Arizona I'd like to sell you.

An Implausible Acceleration​

Using the conservative 1.087-million-saved-in-2021 figure, however, consider what 1.562 million total Covid-19 deaths implies:

• That’s 4,279 Covid-19 deaths every day for the entire year.
• Back in the real world, no single day ever reached that level.
• Only seven days ever topped 4,000 deaths in the U.S.
• All seven of these days occurred after the vaccine rollout began. (January 8, 12, 20, 27, and December 22, 2021; January 28 and February 4, 2022.)
• Zero days pre-vaccine topped 4,000 deaths.
• The model’s counterfactual peak during August-October 2021 generates unprecedented daily death rates over many weeks, more than double the very highest seen anywhere in the world – even for a day or two, let alone a multi-week period – from the beginning of the pandemic.
• During this peak, the model generates daily death rates for several weeks four to six times higher than anything seen in the U.S. throughout the pandemic.
• Total all-cause U.S. deaths for 2021 were 3,457,517. The 1.087 million claim implies, without Covid vaccines, the U.S. would have suffered 31% more total deaths from any cause, on top of the worst year ever.

The One Million Lives Saved Claim

The policies adopted to combat Covid-19 are producing a worldwide inflationary economic meltdown. This macro outcome follows an endless array of individual suffering and tragedy. Yes, from Covid-19 itself, but also from lockdowns, closures, mandates, treatment limitations, and the resulting...

infonomena.substack.com

maybe 100 dead through vaccinating, then you make your decision.

And you're OK with those 100 dead? I mean, that's a lot of dead people that probably would have been just fine had they gotten COVID.

This is why recommendations should be be nuanced. Immunocompromised old person with multiple co-morbidities has a vastly different risk profile than healthy 20-year old athlete guy in college. Yet the recommendations failed to acknowledge those differences.

 

[stevil]

Step into my Time Machine and let's go back to 2021 when the vaccines were first launched. This is absolutely NOT what we were told. In their zeal to convince everyone to get vaccinated, we were told that one you had the vaccine, you would not get infected. Mr. SCIENCE himself, Dr. Fauci, said this:

It was a novel virus and a new vaccine.
They were learning as time went on. Some people seem to think scientist know everything at all times, and don't learn and adapt.

The idea that the vaccine "greatly increases their chances of survival" is also a rather dubious claim, as most people's chance of survival was somewhere in the neighborhood of 99.7% BEFORE the vaccine was available.

Perhaps you don't understand percentages.

People that are vaccinated are several times more likely to survive.
Your percentage here is grossly wrong too.

If we went with your percentage. 0.3% of 360 million would mean you have about 108,000 deaths.
But actually USA had over 1 million Covid deaths, which is 10 times that rate.

I'm not about to go research all the numbers but just to get the gist of it, if everyone was vaccinated before the pandemic hit you would have likely had only 300,000 deaths.
If noone got vaccinated at all ever for the Covid disease then you would have likely had 3 million deaths.

Because almost half your country refused to wear masks, refused to social distance, and many refused to get vaccinated you ended up with over 1 million deaths. Part of this was because the disease hit before the vaccination was developed and available, and part of this was due to sheer stupidity of those refusing to do anything to save lives, but instead choosing to be overly political through spite.

 

[stevil]

And you're OK with those 100 dead? I mean, that's a lot of dead people that probably would have been just fine had they gotten COVID.

100 vs 2 million. I'll take door number 1 thanks.

 

[Pommer]

Yeah, just like with the flu

Which will likely be worser next year, seeings how they nixed the meeting to try to determine which of the variants the 2025-2026 flu season vaccines ought to focus on.

 

[probinson]

It was a novel virus and a new vaccine.

Yes. All the more reason to be cautious in your proclamations. Instead of making confident statements that were later proven to be demonstrably false, they should have said what they knew. But the goal wasn't honesty. The goal was vaccine uptake. So what better way to drive vaccine uptake than to lie to people by telling them they become a "dead end" to the virus.

They were learning as time went on. Some people seem to think scientist know everything at all times, and don't learn and adapt.

This is such a weak cop-out. I know you like to pretend that people weren't providing warnings about all of these over-assurances in 2021, but they were.

Perhaps you don't understand percentages.

Perhaps you don't understand the difference between absolute and relative percentages.

People that are vaccinated are several times more likely to survive.

You are talking about relative percentages. Let's assume I have $0.01 and you have $0.02. Well by golly, you have 100% more money than I do! Do you think that's significant?

Or what about lottery tickets. If you buy 10 lottery tickets and I buy 1, you have a 900% better chance to win the lottery than I do. Sounds impressive! I think you're probably still going to lose though.

The fact is, the absolute risk reduction (ARR) in COVID vaccination is less than 1%.

Your percentage here is grossly wrong too.

Actually, I was being generous at 0.3%. The actual numbers were much lower.

For 29 countries (24 high-income, 5 others), publicly available age-stratified COVID-19 death data and age-stratified seroprevalence information were available and were included in the primary analysis. The IFRs had a median of 0.035% (interquartile range (IQR) 0.013 - 0.056%) for the 0-59 years old population, and 0.095% (IQR 0.036 - 0.125%,) for the 0-69 years old. The median IFR was 0.0003% at 0-19 years, 0.003% at 20-29 years, 0.011% at 30-39 years, 0.035% at 40-49 years, 0.129% at 50-59 years, and 0.501% at 60-69 years.​

​

Age-stratified infection fatality rate of COVID-19 in the non-elderly informed from pre-vaccination national seroprevalence studies ​

If we went with your percentage. 0.3% of 360 million would mean you have about 108,000 deaths.
But actually USA had over 1 million Covid deaths, which is 10 times that rate.

I'm sure you also know that COVID deaths were overcounted.

But are these Americans dying from COVID or with COVID?​

​

Understanding this distinction is crucial to putting the continuing toll of the coronavirus into perspective. Determining how likely an infection will result in hospitalization or death helps people weigh their own risk. It also enables health officials to assess when vaccine effectiveness wanes and future rounds of boosters are needed.​

​

We are overcounting COVID deaths and hospitalizations. That's a problem.

—According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the United States is experiencing around 400 COVID deaths every day. At that rate, there would be nearly 150,000 deaths a

www.phillytrib.com

​

​

I'm not about to go research all the numbers but just to get the gist of it, if everyone was vaccinated before the pandemic hit you would have likely had only 300,000 deaths.

If noone got vaccinated at all ever for the Covid disease then you would have likely had 3 million deaths.

Because almost half your country refused to wear masks,

*Sigh*. We've known since the Cochrane Review was first published in 2007 that masking is ineffective at slowing respiratory viral spread.

refused to social distance,

*Sigh*. Dr. Fauci admitted that there were no studies to support social distancing and that the recommendation just kind of appeared.

and many refused to get vaccinated

*Sigh*. As I've shown, the vast majority of young healthy people derived no benefit from vaccination, especially when it came to boosters. The top two vaccine regulators at the FDA resigned in protest over the Biden administration's push to boost everyone.

you ended up with over 1 million deaths.

Many of which were people who died "with" COVID and not "from" COVID, as the article above illustrates.

Part of this was because the disease hit before the vaccination was developed and available,

It seems you've learned nothing. As long as people keep trying to pretend like the COVID vaccine is in any way analogous to proven childhood vaccines, vaccine uptake will continue to decline.

and part of this was due to sheer stupidity of those refusing to do anything to save lives, but instead choosing to be overly political through spite.

Except we've already established that masking and social distancing didn't "save lives". It was a nifty way to virtue signal and make you feel like you were "doing something", but what you were doing was wholly ineffective.

 

[probinson]

Which will likely be worser next year, seeings how they nixed the meeting to try to determine which of the variants the 2025-2026 flu season vaccines ought to focus on.

Notwithstanding the Cochrane Reviews which show that any impact from flu vaccination is "modest", you are mistaken.

Today, the FDA made recommendations to vaccine manufacturers for the virus strains to be used in influenza (flu) vaccines for the 2025-2026 U.S. flu season following a thorough and comprehensive review of U.S. and global surveillance data. With today’s action, the FDA does not anticipate any impact on timing or availability of vaccines for the American public. The recommendations are similar to the previous year’s strain selection.​

​

To inform the selection of the flu virus strains, the FDA convened a meeting of scientific and public health experts from the FDA, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Department of Defense for this in-depth discussion. During the meeting, these federal partners collaboratively evaluated and analyzed U.S. and global surveillance data related to the epidemiology and antigenic characteristics of flu viruses currently circulating.​

​

Influenza Vaccine Composition for the 2025-2026 U.S. Influenza Season

Today, the FDA made recommendations to vaccine manufacturers for the virus strains to be used in the trivalent (three strain) flu vaccines for the 2025-2026 U.S. flu season following a thorough and comprehensive review of U.S. and global surveillance data.

www.fda.gov

​

What was nixed was the advisory committee meeting, which is basically where a bunch of "advisors" heavily funded by pharmaceutical companies get together and guess which strain of the flu might circulate next year.