In his
address to Congress, President Trump spent some time discussing farmers.
Our new trade policy will also be great for the American farmer — I love the farmer — who will now be selling into our home market, the U.S.A., because nobody is going to be able to compete with you. ...
The tariffs will go on — agricultural product coming into America and our farmers starting on April 2, may be a little bit of an adjustment period. We had that before [in his first term]
when I made the deal with China. $50 billion of purchases and I said just bear with me and they did. They did. Probably have to bear with me again. ...
But our farmers are going to have a field day right now. So to our farmers, have a lot of fun. I love you too. I love you too.
But will farmers feel the love? Or only 'tough love'? Setting tariffs aside (for the moment) some other Trump 2.0 actions have had an effect on farmers.
Trump has paused/canceled funding to farmers, many of whom have already spent money based on the guarantees.
Farmers report missing millions of dollars of funding they were promised by the U.S. Agriculture Department, despite promises from the Trump administration that a federal funding freeze would not apply to projects directly benefiting individuals. On his first day in office, President Donald...
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While the firing and rehiring of USDA employees working on bird flu is part of the
clown show that is DOGE, the firing and rehiring of all targetted USDA employees is part of the
illegal show that is DOGE. Similarly, farmers depend on weather reports from the National Weather Service, another agency hit with cuts (and not reinstated as far as I know, though there are abundant court cases in motion).
For better or worse, a dirty (but open) secret of US agriculture is its dependance on illegal workers to keep wages and prices down. ICE efforts in the interior of the country to arrest illegals has already caused disruption in farming communities here and there.
And now the tariffs. As Trump rightly noted in his speech, farmers had to 'bear with him' for a time. Part of that bearing was the US taxpayer bailing out farmers with subsidies due to the reciprocal tariffs carried out by our trading partners. Will the Trump Administration again try to 'make things right' by supporting farmers hurt by his trade policies with socialism?
Trump certainly didn't promise any subsidies while he had the nation listening.
Off the soapbox and back to the tariffs...
‘It doesn’t feel like love,’ Minnesota Farmers Union president says of trade war with Canada
But whatever happens, farmers are already feeling the burn
Corn and soybean prices for this year's U.S. harvest already fell roughly 10 per cent since the tariffs were first announced a couple of weeks ago.
Joe Janzen, an agricultural economist with the University of Illinois, said that has "snuffed out" any profitability in those crops.
Trump has repeatedly insisted U.S. farmers will benefit from tariffs because they'll have less competition domestically. In one social media post, he
told American farmers to "have fun" selling their products inside the U.S.
Janzen called those comments "at best, tone deaf."
"There is no domestic market for the amount of corn, soybeans, wheat, and other agricultural products that we now export in significant quantities," he said.
“I’m very worried that it could affect the entire tomato industry,” said Bruce Rominger, who grows tomatoes along with other produce on a farm in Yolo County in the Sacramento Valley.
Mexico and Canada are two of the biggest customers for the Roma tomatoes that burst out by the millions up and down the Central Valley at the end of every summer and are then canned. Farmers worry that processors who export the canned tomatoes will face steep retaliatory tariffs that will drive down demand in those countries or pressure the growers to lower their prices.
Still, many farmers, who backed Trump by large margins in the 2024 election, were reluctant to speak openly about their concerns, for fear of being seen as criticizing him or because they hope the administration will protect farmers as it has in the past.
Shannon Douglass, president of California’s Farm Bureau, noted in a statement that the state’s agriculture has been hurt by previous trade wars. During the last Trump administration, retaliatory tariffs from China hit almond growers particularly hard, reducing the price per pound to $1.40 from $2.50, according to one study.
One study found that from April 2018 to April 2022, retaliatory tariffs cost almond farmers about $875 million.
Daniel Sumner, a distinguished professor of agricultural economics at UC Davis, said farmers could take multiple hits. They could face higher costs for things such as fertilizer and fence posts, some of which come from Canada, and also from retaliatory tariffs on their exports. Canada, he noted, buys 41% of bottled wine exported from California.
On the other hand, he said, some producers may see profits rise. Beef producers that compete with Canadian cattle ranchers, for example, could see an increase in profit. But consumers, he said, probably will see higher prices at the grocery store for many products.