Port Workers are Set to Strike Tuesday 10/1

[Arcangl86]

I’d prefer to see them get bigger-than-requested raises and lose the automation fight.

The automation fight is the bigger fight though. A lot of people will lose their jobs if automation was brought in.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

Nobody is arguing for that. The longshoremen are asking for the same purchasing power they had in 2018. Even once they catch up for 2024, they’ll still have been behind the curve for several years.

If that is their primacy concern, seems like their gripe is with the fiscal policy of whichever political figures their organization (and the members comprising it) chose to get behind, is it not?

So, in a nutshell, they want an artificial safety net in the form of their bosses being strong-armed into insulating them from the outgrowths of the policies they backed? (if I'm understanding that correctly)


That's like voting for a political entity that's planning on allowing the dumping of toxic sludge in town water supplies, but then wanting someone else to be forced to pay for equipping their house with a special filtration system so that they, personally, don't have to experience the negative effects of what they supported.


Same applies here. If they (and I assume they did based on what few endorsements they doled out) consistently voted for Democrats who had policies that create inflation and upward pricing pressure, but then want their boss to be forced to give them a raise that cancels that out for them personally...that is what they're asking for, an "inflation filtration system" for their own "financial ecosystem".


I always liked that old saying... "In a democracy you get what you vote for, and deserve to get it good and hard"

Sure it is. Most finished goods have inputs that aren’t tied to labor costs, er go, an x% increase in labor costs will necessarily result in a <x% increase in prices.

I understand that, but there is a threshold at which, it can cause that same level of increase. May not have hit it yet, but that magic number does exist (but would likely vary from sector to sector).

If the potential for such a situation was non-existent, economists would've never developed the macro-economic theory known as the "wage price spiral"

You have that backwards. We have more levers to pull to curb inflation. We have far fewer options in a deflationary economy, which tends to feedback on itself.

Which levers would those be?

Apart from the interest rates (and maybe certain forms of tax stimulus), what other levers are there to pull that would be acceptable within a market economy? (there's things like price capping, but that obviously has no place on a broad scale in a market economy, and most economists from both persuasions tend to be in agreement that price capping is a terrible solution that will hurt more than helps)

Whereas, to curb deflation, there's:

• Lowering bank reserve limits.
• Open market operations (OMO)
• Lowering the target interest rate.
• Quantitative easing.
• Increasing government spending.

 

[iluvatar5150]

The automation fight is the bigger fight though. A lot of people will lose their jobs if automation was brought in.

There ought to be ways to structure the contract to protect against that and keep the job losses to just those that arise through attrition.

 

[Francis 1928]

That scared me into action like little else can.

I live in S

East and Gulf coast ports shut down as thousands of workers go on strike

Longshoremen are demanding higher pay and protections against automation.

www.nbcnews.com

Besides pay increases, another major reason the LMA is striking is that they want protections from automation.

I find it sickening that they are willing to make this country suffer for their selfish needs.Biden coud put a stop to this tonight ,if he wanted, but never agreed with the law that enables him to do so. Harris may lose the election for this reason the most. Ridiculous.

 

[iluvatar5150]

If that is their primacy concern, seems like their gripe is with the fiscal policy of whichever political figures their organization (and the members comprising it) chose to get behind, is it not?

No. And I thought you had a better understanding of inflation than this quasi-libertarian nonsense you're flirting with.

So, in a nutshell, they want an artificial safety net

Every safety net is artificial.

in the form of their bosses being strong-armed into insulating them from the outgrowths of the policies they backed? (if I'm understanding that correctly)

No, you're not understanding it correctly.

Same applies here. If they (and I assume they did based on what few endorsements they doled out) consistently voted for Democrats who had policies that create inflation and upward pricing pressure, but then want their boss to be forced to give them a raise that cancels that out for them personally...that is what they're asking for, an "inflation filtration system" for their own "financial ecosystem".

I was going to say no, but then I remembered that blue collar guys tend to be more Trumpy than average, and I saw that the ILA local here in Baltimore is endorsing Larry Hogan in the general election, so maybe you're right.

Which levers would those be?

Apart from the interest rates (and maybe certain forms of tax stimulus), what other levers are there to pull that would be acceptable within a market economy? (there's things like price capping, but that obviously has no place on a broad scale in a market economy, and most economists from both persuasions tend to be in agreement that price capping is a terrible solution that will hurt more than helps)

Whereas, to curb deflation, there's:

• Lowering bank reserve limits.
• Open market operations (OMO)
• Lowering the target interest rate.
• Quantitative easing.
• Increasing government spending.

All of the tools you listed for deflation also work in reverse to combat inflation, except that interest rates can only go to zero.

If you're familiar with the wage-price spiral, you ought to also be familiar with the concept of a deflationary spiral.

 

[iluvatar5150]

I live in S

I find it sickening that they are willing to make this country suffer for their selfish needs.Biden coud put a stop to this tonight ,if he wanted, but never agreed with the law that enables him to do so. Harris may lose the election for this reason the most. Ridiculous.

Why are you not sickened by the employers who refuse to pay the going rate for labor?

 

[ralliann]

This will be interesting. In a couple of weeks, I'll ask my wife to go shopping a do a price check to see how much the costs of goods have gone up.

If anything is there

 

[Francis 1928]

Why are you not sickened by the employers who refuse to pay the going rate for labor?Im more sickened by the 45000 dock workers ,willing to make the millions of people, in this countries lives, difficult for their own selfish wants ,and needs .Joe should sign the order to make them go back to work. He will cost the Dems the election, for not doing so. I live in SC .We are just getting over a crisis . We didnt need this [bless and do not curse][bless and do not curse][bless and do not curse][bless and do not curse] .

 

[iluvatar5150]

Im more sickened by the 45000 dock workers ,willing to make the millions of people, in this countries lives, difficult for their own selfish wants ,and needs .Joe should sign the order to make them go back to work. He will cost the Dems the election, for not doing so. I live in SC .We are just getting over a crisis . We didnt need this [bless and do not curse][bless and do not curse][bless and do not curse][bless and do not curse] .

You didn't answer the question. There are two sides in any labor dispute - workers and management. Why do you only condemn the workers for being selfish? Why don't you consider management selfish? The managers are making way more than $40/hr.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

No. And I thought you had a better understanding of inflation than this quasi-libertarian nonsense you're flirting with.

It's not libertarian nonsense. One doesn't have to be a libertarian to realize that artificial wage increases lead to upward pricing pressure.

With very few exceptions, policy makers are the ones who drive inflation.

Per MIT (the guys at MIT are pretty smart right?...that seems to be an institution that produces people that are pretty good at math and analytics)

Federal spending was responsible for the 2022 spike in inflation, research shows | MIT Sloan

mitsloan.mit.edu

“Our research shows mathematically that the overwhelming driver of that burst of inflation in 2022 was federal spending, not the supply chain,” said Mark Kritzman, a senior lecturer at MIT

Kritzman and colleagues from State Street developed a new methodology that revealed how certain drivers of inflation changed in importance over time from 1960 to 2022.

In doing so, they found that federal spending was two to three times more important than any other factor causing inflation during 2022.


Ergo, if someone is voting for the party that wants to increase government spending (especially in forms that are cash-in-hand, direct payments to consumers), they're voting for inflation, so it's not "if" it'll cause inflation, it's "how much"

Trust the science, right?

Every safety net is artificial.

Yes, perhaps I would've been better off calling it a "selective safety net"
(in that, it only protects them from the impacts of inflation and nobody else)

No, you're not understanding it correctly.

Which part am I not understanding?

Is the inflation we're experiencing not due to policies? And do unions not typically back (in more cases than not) the party that the current administration is a member of that happens to favor more federal spending?

I was going to say no, but then I remembered that blue collar guys tend to be more Trumpy than average, and I saw that the ILA local here in Baltimore is endorsing Larry Hogan in the general election, so maybe you're right.

It's possible that different chapters endorse differently, the ones here in Ohio endorsed Shontel Brown, and the ones in NJ endorsed Tammy Murphy.

All of the tools you listed for deflation also work in reverse to combat inflation, except that interest rates can only go to zero.

If you're familiar with the wage-price spiral, you ought to also be familiar with the concept of a deflationary spiral.

I am, and to my knowledge, a deflationary spiral hasn't occurred since the great depression (and even then, some economists are divided on whether it was actually a full blown deflationary spiral)

Whereas, inflation has been something the US has had to be concerned about (in terms of getting too high above the "magic number" of 2%) for most of the 70's, a good chunk of the 80's, and nearly a dozen other times between 1990 and now.

 

[RoBo1988]

East and Gulf coast ports shut down as thousands of workers go on strike

Longshoremen are demanding higher pay and protections against automation.

www.nbcnews.com

Besides pay increases, another major reason the LMA is striking is that they want protections from automation.

I remember unions from the big 3 auto makers wanted the same thing. As a result, they aren't so big these days.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

Why are you not sickened by the employers who refuse to pay the going rate for labor?

How does one establish a "going rate" for such things?

Per the stats that I can find for my own state, non-union longshoreman dock workers make $53-56k a year on average, unionized ones are currently making $60k. (Land-based dock workers who perform a similar task at trucking hubs make $23.75/hour - or $49,500/year)

Which other industry would you compare it to in order to establish what the "going rate" is for that type of task/labor?

 

[iluvatar5150]

It's not libertarian nonsense. One doesn't have to be a libertarian to realize that artificial wage increases lead to upward pricing pressure.

I was referring to your description of inflation as a measure of money supply.

With very few exceptions, policy makers are the ones who drive inflation.

A global pandemic that caused large shocks on both the supply and demand sides would be one of those exceptions, no?

Per MIT (the guys at MIT are pretty smart right?...that seems to be an institution that produces people that are pretty good at math and analytics)

Federal spending was responsible for the 2022 spike in inflation, research shows | MIT Sloan

mitsloan.mit.edu

That's an article published in an MIT newsletter, not a publication originating from within MIT.

“Our research shows mathematically that the overwhelming driver of that burst of inflation in 2022 was federal spending, not the supply chain,” said Mark Kritzman, a senior lecturer at MIT

Kritzman and colleagues from State Street developed a new methodology that revealed how certain drivers of inflation changed in importance over time from 1960 to 2022.

In doing so, they found that federal spending was two to three times more important than any other factor causing inflation during 2022.

If it stands up to scrutiny, great. That's interesting. But it was written by a bunch of finance guys and published in the Journal of Investment Management.

It'd be interesting to see their method applied to other countries.

 

[iluvatar5150]

How does one establish a "going rate" for such things?

Per the stats that I can find for my own state, non-union longshoreman dock workers make $53-56k a year on average, unionized ones are currently making $60k. (Land-based dock workers who perform a similar task at trucking hubs make $23.75/hour - or $49,500/year)

Which other industry would you compare it to in order to establish what the "going rate" is for that type of task/labor?

What's the going rate for a Porsche?

The price on the window sticker.

 

[Francis 1928]

You didn't answer the question. There are two sides in any labor dispute - workers and management. Why do you only condemn the workers for being selfish? Why don't you consider management selfish? The managers are making way more than $40/hr.I did answer the question. Apparently it takes common sense to understand my answer.The management should not tuck tale .The country will remember these selfish people

You didn't answer the question. There are two sides in any labor dispute - workers and management. Why do you only condemn the workers for being selfish? Why don't you consider management selfish? The managers are making way more than $40/hr.

I gave my answer.The fact remains that 45000 people are willing to sacrifice the lives of millions ,for their own selfish wants and needs . Management needs to figure something out but Joe could shut that [bless and do not curse][bless and do not curse][bless and do not curse][bless and do not curse] down with his pen.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

A global pandemic that caused large shocks on both the supply and demand sides would be one of those exceptions, no?

How one responds to a situation like that is huge, I'll go into more detail on that below...

That's an article published in an MIT newsletter, not a publication originating from within MIT.

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Mark-Kritzman

Seems like the guy has some rather impressive professional credentials.

164 publications and 2400 citations of his work by others in the field would indicate that he seems to know what he's talking about.

If it stands up to scrutiny, great. That's interesting. But it was written by a bunch of finance guys and published in the Journal of Investment Management.

It'd be interesting to see their method applied to other countries.

We can look at Japan as an example of an economy that managed to keep inflation low despite the covid challenges.

According to the World Economic Forum, Japan managed to keep inflation lower by keeping demand lower (by not pumping huge amounts into the economy in the form of stimulus for people who could otherwise be working)

"This weak demand is partly a result of low wages. Factors keeping wages low include more than a third of all jobs being part time or contract work. Unions in Japan, unlike the US, are primarily focused on job security rather than higher pay"


Another major factor (source IMF), is that the stimulus Japan provided was much more in the form of "this is loan you have to pay back" vs. "this is no-strings attached money, do with it what you please"

They also opted for a less-strict lockdown policy during covid than many other countries, which means there was less stimulus and federal spending required.

As of the end of 2023, nearly half of the covid loans (which Japan issued) have been repaid. (with another percentage that have been partially repaid). In the US, 92% of the loans issued were forgiven (per NPR) -- not to mention the other types of loans that were being forgiven, and other things like eviction moratoriums which basically allowed people to live rent-free, and spend money on other stuff (which, "free money" leads to upward pricing pressure)

So you can draw a line from policy -> inflation.

 

[iluvatar5150]

I gave my answer.The fact remains that 45000 people are willing to sacrifice the lives of millions ,for their own selfish wants and needs . Management needs to figure something out but Joe could shut that [bless and do not curse][bless and do not curse][bless and do not curse][bless and do not curse] down with his pen.

The couple hundred in management seem to be just as willing to sacrifice everybody else for their own selfish wants and needs.

 

[iluvatar5150]

How one responds to a situation like that is huge, I'll go into more detail on that below...

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Mark-Kritzman

Seems like the guy has some rather impressive professional credentials.

164 publications and 2400 citations of his work by others in the field would indicate that he seems to know what he's talking about.

I don't think he's a dummy, but every academic I've ever known (and there have been more than a few) has been hyper-specialized in their area of expertise. Just because this guy knows a bunch about finance doesn't mean he knows enough about macroeconomics to upend the conventional wisdom among academic economists. He's doing some statistical calculations that may not even be valid. He's got another paper where he did something similar predicting presidential elections by factoring a bunch of typical things (e.g. incumbency, economic performance), but notably not the way the geographic distribution of votes impacts electoral college outcome. He claims that it correctly predicted every presidential election between 2000-2020, but 2000 and 2016 were sort of flukes in that tiny changes to the distribution of votes would have broken his model.

I'd have more faith in it if he was just trying to predict the popular vote.

We can look at Japan as an example of an economy that managed to keep inflation low despite the covid challenges.

Japan has been fighting deflation for 30 years. It wasn't until Covid that they finally got their inflation up to 2%.

Lost Decades - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[ralliann]

The couple hundred in management seem to be just as willing to sacrifice everybody else for their own selfish wants and needs.

This makes these employees no better than management. Including the union management. They certainly get theirs.

 

[iluvatar5150]

This makes these employees no better than management. Including the union management. They certainly get theirs.

You guys seem to feel pretty entitled to the fruits of their labor.