Birthrates in the U.S. hit historic low in 2023, preliminary CDC data show

[The Barbarian]

I'd like to know why we have anyone on unemployment then. We shouldn't if this is the case.

Economists call it "frictional unemployment."

What Is Frictional Unemployment? ​

Frictional unemployment is a type of short-term unemployment that occurs when workers look for new employment or transition out of old jobs and into new ones. This temporary period of unemployment is the result of voluntary transitions within an economy. It stands in contrast with structural unemployment, which stems from economic shifts that make it difficult for workers to find work.

Frictional unemployment can be evident in a growing, stable economy and is regarded as a part of natural unemployment, the minimum unemployment rate in an economy due to economic forces and the movement of labor.

Frictional Unemployment: Definition, Causes, and Quit Rate Explained

Frictional unemployment is the result of voluntary employment transitions within an economy.

www.investopedia.com

IIRC, this is part of intro courses in economics.

 

[rjs330]

Economists call it "frictional unemployment."

What Is Frictional Unemployment? ​

Frictional unemployment is a type of short-term unemployment that occurs when workers look for new employment or transition out of old jobs and into new ones. This temporary period of unemployment is the result of voluntary transitions within an economy. It stands in contrast with structural unemployment, which stems from economic shifts that make it difficult for workers to find work.

Frictional unemployment can be evident in a growing, stable economy and is regarded as a part of natural unemployment, the minimum unemployment rate in an economy due to economic forces and the movement of labor.

Frictional Unemployment: Definition, Causes, and Quit Rate Explained

Frictional unemployment is the result of voluntary employment transitions within an economy.

www.investopedia.com

View attachment 348812
IIRC, this is part of intro courses in economics.

How long does this temporary unemployment last? I think we all understand that people are unemployed at times. But seems to me if businesses are hurting for workers and there are unemployed people the unemployment should only last a very short period of time. Yet we have unemployed people who are on it fir months. About 5 to be exact. There's no excuse fir that.

Average duration of unemployment U.S. 2023 | Statista

In 1990, the average duration of unemployment in the United States was 12 weeks.

www.statista.com

 

[Hans Blaster]

Who knows if Trump is serious or merely trying to impress voters.

Trump's organizers and coordinators of such policy like Stephen Miller certainly are. They will certainly try the mass deportation if they have power.

 

[The Barbarian]

How long does this temporary unemployment last?

Since there will always be people changing jobs and/or entering the labor market, frictional unemployment should be a bit less than 4%. Remember, it's not the same people. It's about people leaving a job and taking another one.

 

[The Barbarian]

Trump's organizers and coordinators of such policy like Stephen Miller certainly are. They will certainly try the mass deportation if they have power.

For Trump, it's mostly about stirring the believers up. Miller seems to be truly obsessed with a mission to ethnically cleanse America.

 

[The Barbarian]

But seems to me if businesses are hurting for workers and there are unemployed people the unemployment should only last a very short period of time.

If there was a perfect match between the things job hunters and employers are looking for, and there was perfect knowledge on the part of each, there would be no frictional unemployment. But that's not the case.

Yet we have unemployed people who are on it fir months. About 5 to be exact. There's no excuse fir that.

Excuses, I don't know. But reasons, yes.

The Three Main Reasons People Remain Unemployed​

The Three Main Reasons People Remain Unemployed

In career counseling, I strive for simplicity in helping career changers and job hunters. As such, I use a very simplistic assessment to figure out why a person remains unemployed or cannot secure new employment.

www.linkedin.com

The good news?

May 23, 2024:

US applications for jobless benefits fall as labor market continues to thrive​

US applications for jobless benefits fall as labor market continues to thrive

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell last week as layoffs remained historically low levels.

apnews.com

 

[rjs330]

Since there will always be people changing jobs and/or entering the labor market, frictional unemployment should be a bit less than 4%. Remember, it's not the same people. It's about people leaving a job and taking another one.

I thought we were talking about unemployment like people getting g unemployment. Maybe I misunderstood. Because people changing jobs just to change jobs don't collect unemployment.

 

[The Barbarian]

I thought we were talking about unemployment like people getting g unemployment. Maybe I misunderstood. Because people changing jobs just to change jobs don't collect unemployment.

Many unemployed people don't get benefits. The unemployment rate is based on people out of a job who want one.

 

[rjs330]

Many unemployed people don't get benefits. The unemployment rate is based on people out of a job who want one.

No actually it's not. It's based on people who say they are actively looking for one. Not people who actually want one. There is a distinction. We don't really have a good way to measure peoples honesty. Are they actually looking or do they just say they are. How do we measure that? I'm not saying everyone is dishonest. But we do know people who are. And the unemployment rate does not count those who who have quit looking. There is no distinction between those who were looking buy gave up and are not looking anymore and those who aren't looking because they have chosen not to work for other reasons, like being a stay at home mom or dad.

So while the unemployment rate is okay, it's not really that accurate when you take into consideration the other variables.

Anyway I am kind of bored with this. I can't seem to muster up enough interest.

Bottom line we should be having more babies.

 

[dzheremi]

I’d let them have citizenship with a decent reading/recitation of the first verse of the Star Spangled Banner

Why the Star Spangled Banner specifically? I get it from a patriotism angle, but it's not exactly a highly relevant or useful text to use to determine someone's ability to use and comprehend the English language. I'm going to guess that many people who know the text more or less by heart and are native English speakers would likely struggle to answer if asked what a "rampart" is.

 

[The Barbarian]

So while the unemployment rate is okay

Recently, it fell to the lowest rate since 1969. Which seems pretty good to me. Bad news for the republicans, but for who else?

, it's not really that accurate when you take into consideration the other variables.

Apples to apples. This is how it's always measured. Hard for employers; great if you're looking for work.

Anyway I am kind of bored with this. I can't seem to muster up enough interest.

"Not a 'gay science', I should say, like some we have heard of; no, a dreary, desolate and, indeed, quite abject and distressing one; what we might call, by way of eminence, the dismal science."
Thomas Carlyle (back when "gay" meant something quite different)

Bottom line we should be having more babies.

Turns out we are. Just as we were in the 1800s. Immigrants were producing a lot of babies then, too. Nativists were terrified that America would be forever changed. And it was. It's what we have now. Which seems to most people, better than the alternatives. It's why they keep coming here to take part in it.

 

[The Barbarian]

Many unemployed people don't get benefits. The unemployment rate is based on people out of a job who want one.

No actually it's not. It's based on people who say they are actively looking for one.

So far, evidence indicates that people are aware of their intentions about jobs.

We don't really have a good way to measure peoples honesty.

A lot of republicans don't, it seems. According to Gallup, nearly 40% think Donald Trump is honest.

Americans View Biden as Likable, Honest; Trump, as Strong

Americans are much more likely to perceive Joe Biden than Donald Trump as being likable, and rate Biden better on honesty and caring. Trump's sole advantage is on being a strong and decisive leader.

news.gallup.com

So while the unemployment rate is okay, it's not really that accurate when you take into consideration the other variables.

Apples to apples. It measures something real and you can use changes in the rate to make accurate inferences about the economy. No one would bother with it, if it did not.

 

[rjs330]

Why the Star Spangled Banner specifically? I get it from a patriotism angle, but it's not exactly a highly relevant or useful text to use to determine someone's ability to use and comprehend the English language. I'm going to guess that many people who know the text more or less by heart and are native English speakers would likely struggle to answer if asked what a "rampart" is.

Being a citizen of country should mean something. You should buy into the country, ita culture, its history, it's aystwm of government etc. Rhe pledge of allegiance and the anthem and an integral part of a country. It says something about the country, where it came from its values. If you dont buy into it then you are just a visitor. Being a citizen should mean more than it just happens to be where you live. Far too many people, Americans, take the coun try for granted. They demand without giving. They want freedom without sacrifice. They want money without earning it. They demand things be given to them rather than take advantage of the opportunities afforded them to obtain those things through their own efforts. We have it so good in America and we dont appreciate it as we should. Maybe these immigrants will come and appreciate what we have and the freedom and opportunities we have. And do so in a way that is better than many Americans do. Many immigrants understand efforts. Hard work, taking advantage of opportunities. Those are the immigrants we want.

 

[rjs330]

Turns out we are. Just as we were in the 1800s. Immigrants were producing a lot of babies then, too. Nativists were terrified that America would be forever changed. And it was. It's what we have now. Which seems to most people, better than the alternatives. It's why they keep coming here to take part ininto.

Are you saying rhe article is incorrect? Because I thought we were having fewer babies. Birthrate hit historic low. That's the claim. Are you saying the claim is incorrect?

 

[iluvatar5150]

Being a citizen of country should mean something. You should buy into the country, ita culture, its history, it's aystwm of government etc. Rhe pledge of allegiance and the anthem and an integral part of a country. It says something about the country, where it came from its values. If you dont buy into it then you are just a visitor. Being a citizen should mean more than it just happens to be where you live. Far too many people, Americans, take the coun try for granted. They demand without giving. They want freedom without sacrifice. They want money without earning it. They demand things be given to them rather than take advantage of the opportunities afforded them to obtain those things through their own efforts. We have it so good in America and we dont appreciate it as we should. Maybe these immigrants will come and appreciate what we have and the freedom and opportunities we have. And do so in a way that is better than many Americans do. Many immigrants understand efforts. Hard work, taking advantage of opportunities. Those are the immigrants we want.

I think hiking 1,000 miles across central america is a pretty good indication that somebody knows how to work and take advantage of opportunities.

 

[rjs330]

Many unemployed people don't get benefits. The unemployment rate is based on people out of a job who want one.


So far, evidence indicates that people are aware of their intentions about jobs.

A lot of republicans don't, it seems. According to Gallup, nearly 40% think Donald Trump is honest.

Americans View Biden as Likable, Honest; Trump, as Strong

Americans are much more likely to perceive Joe Biden than Donald Trump as being likable, and rate Biden better on honesty and caring. Trump's sole advantage is on being a strong and decisive leader.

news.gallup.com

Apples to apples. It measures something real and you can use changes in the rate to make accurate inferences about the economy. No one would bother with it, if it did not.

Sorry the unemployment rate is not accurate to the true unemployment. Besides the possible.dishonesty of people there is a lot if unemployment that is missed.

The widely cited U-3 rate doesn't accurately represent the reality of joblessness in this country, but the BLS has another metric -- called the U-6 -- that is more comprehensive and revealing, even though it's rarely mentioned by economists.

By factoring in the unemployed who have given up looking for a job (called "marginally attached" workers), as well as workers who settled for part-time employment but would rather work full-time, the U-6 rate tends to be around double the headline U-3 rate. According to the U-6 rate since September 2021, joblessness has been between 6.7% and 8.5%.

U-3 vs. U-6 vs. true rate of unemployment
Unemployment Rates (as of September) 2020
20212022
BLS U-3: Only factors in unemployed who have actively sought work in the last 4 weeks7.9%4.7%3.5%
BLS U-6: Includes some "marginally attached" and underemployed workers12.8%8.5%6.7%
LISEP ("TRU"): Includes all unemployed, including discouraged workers, as well as part-time workers who can't find full-time employment, and those earning under $20,00028.2%24%22.3%

Unemployment Statistics Are Misleading. Economic Hardship Is Much Worse

https://www.factcheck.org/2023/01/bidens-misleading-unemployment-statistic/

This is rhe last post on this for me. Because I know emoyment is better thT it was during the pandemic. We all know the pandemic took its toll. And we are recovering from that. Inflation has hit us all hard and we are all seeing the effects of that. So while employment is up from 2020 so is inflation.

And we also know the government, republicans and democrats all fudge the numbers in some fashion. They all want to look good. I think the real health of the economy is not based just on who has a job, but it's based on how well they are doing financially in comparison to inflation and taxes. I can tell you that while I'm making more money than before, it's all eaten up by inflation and taxes and then some. I actually have less money due to the cost of everything. So there's that.

 

[wing2000]

Bottom line we should be having more babies.

In my own family:
My dad, born when children were needed for labor on the farm, had 12 brothers and sisters (2 passed away in childhood)
I have 3 siblings. I only have 1 niece.
And my wife and I chose to have 2 children (ages 35 & 26)
Both are single without children....and we're not sure they ever will have kids.

So it goes with many families.

 

[rjs330]

I think hiking 1,000 miles across central america is a pretty good indication that somebody knows how to work and take advantage of opportunities.

I would hope so. Thats part of my point. Not everyone e who does that is coming for that reason. Some will come to take advantage of the system. Some come to commit crimes. Some are bad people. Most are good people who do want to work. Do they want to become citizens? Thats different than just wanting work.
That's why we need an overhaul like I suggested. No one gets in until they are vetted. We have a system for those who just want to work and it's fairly easy to get in to do that and we have tight controls if they commit crimes or don't renew etc. The second they do t renew we go after them and remove them never to return. If they want to be a citizen that's great and we should make it easier and a LOT less costly to do it.

 

[The Barbarian]

The widely cited U-3 rate doesn't accurately represent the reality of joblessness in this country, but the BLS has another metric -- called the U-6 -- that is more comprehensive and revealing, even though it's rarely mentioned by economists.

By factoring in the unemployed who have given up looking for a job (called "marginally attached" workers), as well as workers who settled for part-time employment but would rather work full-time, the U-6 rate tends to be around double the headline U-3 rate. According to the U-6 rate since September 2021, joblessness has been between 6.7% and 8.5%.

What is dishonest, is people using one rate for Trump and the other for Biden. Apples to apples, the unemployment rate under Biden is much lower than it was under Trump.

In January, Biden highlighted that Trump was the first president to oversee a net loss of jobs since Herbert Hoover, who was in office when the Great Depression hit — but failed to mention the 2020 pandemic caused the nosedive.

When excluding the pandemic year of 2020, we found that the economy under Biden added jobs at a faster rate than under Trump — and faster than any of Biden’s recent predecessors.

Under Biden, U.S. employment is now 10% above what it was when he was sworn in. Ranking second after three years is Clinton, with almost 8%, followed by Trump with 4.4%.
8 charts that explain the Biden, Trump economies

Is it fair to blame Trump for bungling the pandemic? I think so. He lied to us about how bad it was going to be, and he waited too long to do anything effective about it. Is it fair to blame Biden for the mess in 2020? The first year of every president belongs to his predecessor, but after that it's his record.

 

[The Barbarian]

Are you saying rhe article is incorrect? Because I thought we were having fewer babies. Birthrate hit historic low. That's the claim. Are you saying the claim is incorrect?

I'm pointing out that immigrants tend to have more babies than native-born Americans.

Children in U.S. Immigrant Families

The number of immigrants and refugees settling in the United States has increased dramatically in recent decades as has their dispersion to numerous states that have not traditionally been a destination for immigrants. The overwhelming majority of children in immigrant families (87 percent in...

www.migrationpolicy.org

It's one of the reasons the US is not headed for the kind of demographic disaster that is coming for Russia, China, Japan, and other nations.