From the paper:
'If one asks the reason why a certain event Ej occurred, is now possible to reply: “Because another event Ei/A happened before (i.e., i < j) and not its mutually exclusive alternative Ei/B”
The guy is making the same mistake as you seem to be making. ... Del Santo's view is that there is zero possibility of measuring the number of possibilities, therefore it's not predictable.
First, the dismissive use of referring to Del Santo as the
"guy who makes the same mistake" must be called out. We ought not demean those who disagree with us. I inferred you were going to
freely constrain yourself further from using high school debating tactics.
Secondly, you missed the point Del Santo makes in your quote. He is not on commenting on
predictability but on
alternatives. Indeterminism reflects the reality that the future has a range of probabilistic causalities.
On the contrary, indeterminism introduced the possibility of alternatives, thereby making causality meaningful. If one asks the reason why a certain event Ej occurred, is now possible to reply: “Because another event Ei/A happened before (i.e., i < j) and not its mutually exclusive alternative Ei/B”. Significant progress in weakening the bond between determinism and causality was made in the second half of the nineteenth century, thanks to the work of philosophers the likes of K.R. Popper [29], J. Earman [20], W. Salmon [38], P. Dowe [4], H. Reichenbach [39], I. J. Good [40] and P. Suppes [41]. Mostly inspired by quantum mechanics, the concept of probabilistic causality came about. This maintains that an event C directly influences another event E but is not sufficient for it.
A common, and quite grim, example to explain probabilistic causality features the following chain of events (temporally ordered): A scientist, Eric, sits in a sealed room (i.e., without any exchange with the external environment). His colleague, Clara, brings a canister full of radioactive material in Eric’s room (ideally, making sure that there are no other exchanges with the environment). While time elapses, the radioactive material will be decaying –at a certain probabilistic rate depending on its chemical composition– releasing ionizing radiation. Sadly, at some point, Eric develops radiation poisoning. Now, since decay is governed by quantum mechanics and in that theory probabilities are considered irreducible, there was no deterministic process relating Clara’s actions to Eric’s condition. However, if you think that Clara can be held accountable for Eric’s sickness, then you believe in probabilistic causality.