Putin's Draft Plans Lead to Exodus of Men from Russia

[The Barbarian]

Russian men join exodus, fearing call-up to fight in Ukraine
Military-aged men have joined an exodus from Russia on the second full day of a partial military mobilization
Russian men join exodus, fearing call-up to fight in Ukraine

It looks like young Russian men aren't eager to die to keep Putin in power.

 

[Lukaris]

I hope & pray that this will amount to some sort of peaceful undoing of this horrible war, Putin’s resignation, Ukraine’s recovery, Russia’s repentance & it’s cohesion maintained.

 

[The Barbarian]

I hope & pray that this will amount to some sort of peaceful undoing of this horrible war, Putin’s resignation, Ukraine’s recovery, Russia’s repentance & it’s cohesion maintained.

Amen. I also pray this will be the case.

 

[Ignatius the Kiwi]

I hope & pray that this will amount to some sort of peaceful undoing of this horrible war, Putin’s resignation, Ukraine’s recovery, Russia’s repentance & it’s cohesion maintained.

If the goal of Western countries is to remove Putin from power and punish Russia in order to maintain USA and NATO Hegemony there won't be a peace settlement any time soon. Rather I think we can only see escalation on the horizon.

 

[The Barbarian]

If the goal of Western countries is to remove Putin from power and punish Russia in order to maintain USA and NATO Hegemony there won't be a peace settlement any time soon.

Actually, it's to stop a crazed dictator from continuing to attack neighboring countries. It's better to bleed him dry in Ukraine than to let him have his way and take out the Baltic states next.

Rather I think we can only see escalation on the horizon.

If so, he's going to have to find a way to keep his prospective draftees in Russia. They seem to be suddenly finding important things to do outside of Russia.

 

[Ignatius the Kiwi]

Actually, it's to stop a crazed dictator from continuing to attack neighboring countries. It's better to bleed him dry in Ukraine than to let him have his way and take out the Baltic states next.

Whose being bled here? All sides aren't having it easy and it's far from clear to me that the Ukranians are just BTFOing the Russians in this conflict. If Putin is crazy, not a rational actor who is able to think of the consequences of his actions then escalation will happen. I am not convinced of that narrative. But If his goals are limited, say keeping Ukraine out of NATO and annexing Donetsk and Luhansk, that seems like a reasonable military and political goal to achieve.

Why would Putin directly attack NATO itself via the Baltics? Unless he was insane? In that case we're not dealing with someone who can be rational and the only answer is a Total war with Russia. A Russia with Nukes and a President who is insane and irrational.

If so, he's going to have to find a way to keep his prospective draftees in Russia. They seem to be suddenly finding important things to do outside of Russia.

Are millions of men going to leave Russia as they have left Ukraine? People will leave, as people leave any warzone, such as ones the USA has started in the Middle East. He could simply do what the Ukraine does and forbid eligible military men from leaving the country. If his grip on power is solidly in his control then this will be fairly manageable.

 

[The Barbarian]

Whose being bled here?

Putin. He's having to put in a draft to get enough cannon fodder for the next round. He's pulling half-century old T-62 tanks out of museums to get enough equipment to find a way to stabilize his defensive lines. And the Russian military budget is lower now than before he started the invasion.

All sides aren't having it easy

For some reason, the Ukrainians seem more enthusiastic about continuing the fight then Russian men of draft age do. They are fleeing for the exits.

and it's far from clear to me that the Ukranians are just BTFOing the Russians in this conflict.

It's not the flagship of the Ukrainian Navy that's on the bottom of the Black sea. It's not the Ukrainians who just suffered a series of humiliating defeats and lost territory. I don't think tossing a bunch of untrained O-30 draftees into the fight is going to help Putin much. He really miscalculated this adventure.

 

[The Barbarian]

Why would Putin directly attack NATO itself via the Baltics? Unless he was insane?

Well, that's become a question for everyone, hasn't it? He made a horrendous error, and now he's looking for a way out that doesn't show that all those dead Russian soldiers count for nothing.

But If his goals are limited, say keeping Ukraine out of NATO and annexing Donetsk and Luhansk, that seems like a reasonable military and political goal to achieve.

That backfired, too. Sweden and Finland are now effectively NATO members, and likely will formally become so. Exactly what Putin was trying to avoid. And it appears that the Ukrainians aren't going to stop fighting until the Russians withdraw from all of Ukraine. The evidence of Russian atrocities, and the number of humiliating defeats of the Russian army has hardened Ukraine's resolve.

 

[Ignatius the Kiwi]

Putin. He's having to put in a draft to get enough cannon fodder for the next round. He's pulling half-century old T-62 tanks out of museums to get enough equipment to find a way to stabilize his defensive lines. And the Russian military budget is lower now than before he started the invasion.

No doubt the Russians are having to use more resources than they originally committed. Hence the partial mobilization. But It's not as if this is one sided thing. Namely economically this war is hurting the West more than it seems to be hurting Russia, especially Europe through having it's access to cheap gas energy cut off.

For some reason, the Ukrainians seem more enthusiastic about continuing the fight then Russian men of draft age do. They are fleeing for the exits.

We'll have to see if that enthusiasm lasts.

It's not the flagship of the Ukrainian Navy that's on the bottom of the Black sea. It's not the Ukrainians who just suffered a series of humiliating defeats and lost territory. I don't think tossing a bunch of untrained O-30 draftees into the fight is going to help Putin much. He really miscalculated this adventure.

Oh he might have indeed miscalculated. That's not the question. You seem bent on the West punishing Putin specifically for this. The leader of a sovereign country. How do you propose that be done without a total war and the use of nukes? Without an invasion of Russia itself? The issue is how far is the West willing to go. What is the strategic aim of supporting Ukraine? Is it to get rid of Russians in Ukraine? Alright. Is it to get rid of Putin, as many in Washington on the Neo-con right and establishment left suggest through their rhetoric? What might Putin do, who I am told is insane, if his position and government were threatened directly?

How do you propose de-escalating? Is Russia going to have any of it's concerns granted? No? Why then would Russia not continue to escalate as well since they also need a victory for starting this?

 

[The Barbarian]

No doubt the Russians are having to use more resources than they originally committed. Hence the partial mobilization. But It's not as if this is one sided thing. Namely economically this war is hurting the West more than it seems to be hurting Russia, especially Europe through having it's access to cheap gas energy cut off.

The Russian economy is contracting at the same time the economies of Europe and the United States are expanding. You didn't know this?

Russian propaganda is boasting that their economy will shrink by only 3%, as if that was a victory.
Russia says economy to contract by less than 3% in 2022

Here's how the rest of Europe is doing:
GDP growth forecasts Europe 2022 | Statista

Quite a contrast, um?

 

[The Barbarian]

You seem bent on the West punishing Putin specifically for this.

That's how you deal with aggressors. Make it painful and nonproductive to attack other nations. If Hitler had been stopped early on, there would have been no WWII. No matter what happens, if Putin gets nothing for his aggression, he may survive, but he will not attack other nations thereafter.

The leader of a sovereign country. How do you propose that be done without a total war and the use of nukes?

Looks like it's working pretty well right now. It's not just the humiliating defeats at the hands of a much smaller nation; it's the declining Russian economy and loss of influence in the world.

Is Russia going to have any of it's concerns granted? No?

Putin understands only force. He can't be rewarded for his aggression.

Why then would Russia not continue to escalate as well since they also need a victory for starting this?

Putin needs a victory. Russia does not.

 

[Ignatius the Kiwi]

That's how you deal with aggressors. Make it painful and nonproductive to attack other nations. If Hitler had been stopped early on, there would have been no WWII. No matter what happens, if Putin gets nothing for his aggression, he may survive, but he will not attack other nations thereafter.

WW2 was in part as destructive as it was because the allies insisted on a total surrender. If you don't give an enemy a way out, then the only solution is to kill as many people they have, via firebombing and nuclear attacks of civilian centres.

If a peace settlement which acknowledges both sides of a conflict have interests and that you could mitigate the potential for slaughter by having both sides concede, why not take the option? You can only do so on ideological grounds that you cannot tolerate the existence of another.

Looks like it's working pretty well right now. It's not just the humiliating defeats at the hands of a much smaller nation; it's the declining Russian economy and loss of influence in the world.

Given that not all non western nations have decided to join the west, particularly India and China, in condemning Russia, your view of influence and decline is perhaps rather narrow.

Putin understands only force. He can't be rewarded for his aggression.

Then you must necessarily escalate in order to thorough punish Putin enough. Is the Ukraine and potentially Europe and the USA/Russia becoming a potential nuclear sparring field worth trying to force a complete Russian capitulation?

I don't think it is. It won't be the elites who suffer as a result, it will be regular people. Nothing you have proposed is going to result in de-escalation. It can only increase as a result of your attitude. I think Western leaders share your attitude and ideological commitments to Liberal hegemony. That's why I'm kind of terrified this thing gets out of hand.

 

[The Barbarian]

WW2 was in part as destructive as it was because the allies insisted on a total surrender.

Because the world drew the line at Ukraine, it likely won't have to come to that. If we had appeased Putin by letting him get away with his aggression, it might have. You don't get peace by appeasing diictators; you get peace by stopping them.

Is the Ukraine and potentially Europe and the USA/Russia becoming a potential nuclear sparring field worth trying to force a complete Russian capitulation?

We don't need a capitulation. We only need him to stop attacking his neighbors.

I think Western leaders share your attitude and ideological commitments to Liberal hegemony.

I don't think you know what "hegemony" means. It's what Putin wants. That's why he's trying to conquer his neighbors.

 

[The Barbarian]

Given that not all non western nations have decided to join the west, particularly India and China, in condemning Russia, your view of influence and decline is perhaps rather narrow.

I notice that India, for example, has called on Putin to cease his aggression.

India's Modi publicly chides Putin over Russia's war with Ukraine
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday that now was not the time for war, directly assailing the Kremlin chief in public over the nearly seven-month-long conflict in Ukraine.

Locked in a confrontation with the West over the war, Putin has repeatedly said Russia is not isolated because it can look eastwards to major Asian powers such as China and India.

But at a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), concerns spilled out into the open.

"I know that today's era is not an era of war, and I have spoken to you on the phone about this," Modi told Putin at a televized meeting in the ancient Uzbek Silk Road city of Samarkand.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/india-russia-ukraine-war-modi-putin-1.6585433

And Xi has been less than supportive lately, seeing that this war is going to be bad for China:

But it was Putin’s cryptic acknowledgment of Chinese “concerns” over the invasion that drew the most attention. In doing so, the Russian leader seemed especially keen to curry favour with Xi, striking a conciliatory tone on a topic where he is often volatile and uncompromising.

“We highly value the balanced position of our Chinese friends when it comes to the Ukraine crisis,” Putin said. “We understand your questions and concerns about this. During today’s meeting, we will of course explain our position.”

China’s concerns are probably headed by the economic fallout from the invasion, including Russian threats of an all-out energy war against Europe. While Putin and Xi had announced “no limits” in their partnership at a summit in February before the war began, China has avoided voicing public support for the invasion or of providing military or economic aid that could incur secondary sanctions.
Putin tells Xi he understands China’s ‘questions and concerns’ over Ukraine

It's like friends telling an alcoholic that he has to do something about his drinking.

 

[Blade]

Knowing most Russians are behind Putin which would be shocking but like here so much of TRUTH is never reported and they dare not report the truth there then Zelenskyy who demands Russia face ‘punishment’ for invasion of Ukraine. Be one thing if that was all he said but its the kind of "punishment" he is demanding. I do notice things Zelenskyy has done and said since say Feb 2022 does not make it on the left wing media.

 

[The Barbarian]

Knowing most Russians are behind Putin which would be shocking but like here so much of TRUTH is never reported and they dare not report the truth there

The mass exodus of draft-age males from Russia pretty much amounts to voting with their feet.

 

[JimR-OCDS]

My fear is that a crackpot like Putin, will not be backed into a corner. His latest move is just one part of irrationality. What decision will he make when this backfires? Will he resort to launching a nuclear attack in the West, in order to make his point that he is in charge of Russia?

 

[The Barbarian]

My fear is that a crackpot like Putin, will not be backed into a corner. His latest move is just one part of irrationality. What decision will he make when this backfires? Will he resort to launching a nuclear attack in the West, in order to make his point that he is in charge of Russia?

I doubt that he's insane. He's obviously got an inflated notion of his ability, but I doubt if the Russian nuclear force is entirely at his disposal. In the same way that our generals were keeping an eye on Trump, I would imagine the Russian generals are now watching Putin to make sure he doesn't lose it.

 

[JimR-OCDS]

I doubt that he's insane. He's obviously got an inflated notion of his ability, but I doubt if the Russian nuclear force is entirely at his disposal. In the same way that our generals were keeping an eye on Trump, I would imagine the Russian generals are now watching Putin to make sure he doesn't lose it.

I pray that you're right!

 

[The Barbarian]

I pray that you're right!

What is worrisome, is that he's presiding over a declining economy with a population that is less and less patient with him. Conscription was not a popular move with people wondering why the Russian army can't beat a much smaller Ukranian force.

If you can get a copy of The Third World War by Sir John Hackett, it's worth reading. It has a somewhat similar scenario, from the days of the Warsaw pact, when a Soviet leader, seeing the future as one of decline for the USSR, launched an attack on Germany. Failing to achieve his objectives as NATO forces stopped and then began to push back Soviet forces, he attempted to save the situation with nuclear weapons.

Sound familiar?

BTW, I understand that the Soviet General Staff all read the book carefully. Which might be a good thing.