Trump campaign declares victory in Pennsylvania.

[wing2000]

Are the Pennsylvania Republican legislators regretting their archaic decision not to allow county election offices to start counting mail in ballots prior to election day?

 

[wing2000]

Which is interesting does CNn know something, in regard to the Arizona governor saying the data indicates a 30000 majority trump win.

Don't know. What I do know is there are 600k votes still not counted...and 450k are from Maricopa county....a county whose votes to date favor - Biden. Still others are from Pima Country, an area that is heavily democratic. Maybe the governor is smoking weed (which is now legal in the state).

Breakdown by Arizona county:
Arizona Election Results [click on View More]

 

[SimplyMe]

Don't know. What I do know is there are 600k votes still not counted...and 450k are from Maricopa county....a county whose votes to date favor - Biden. Still others are from Pima Country, an area that is heavily democratic. Maybe the governor is smoking weed (which is now legal in the state).

Breakdown by Arizona county:
Arizona Election Results [click on View More]

It isn't quite that simple, as even in counties that "lean" one direction, there are often precincts that lean the other. Who these votes are for depends at least as much on what precincts they are from, as what counties they are from. For example, I believe many of the outstanding ballots from Maricopa are from the precinct that used the "Sharpie" (which, per the conspiracy, would be a Republican precinct) since they have to be manually tabulated.

Obviously, state officials typically know their state better -- so a governor likely knows what precincts have yet to be finished and how they lean. At the same time, the governor is trying to guess how people voted in these areas -- there is a reason we actually count the votes.

 

[wing2000]

It isn't quite that simple, as even in counties that "lean" one direction, there are often precincts that lean the other. Who these votes are for depends at least as much on what precincts they are from, as what counties they are from. For example, I believe many of the outstanding ballots from Maricopa are from the precinct that used the "Sharpie" (which, per the conspiracy, would be a Republican precinct) since they have to be manually tabulated.

Obviously, state officials typically know their state better -- so a governor likely knows what precincts have yet to be finished and how they lean. At the same time, the governor is trying to guess how people voted in these areas -- there is a reason we actually count the votes.

Sure, there is variation by precinct. However, with 99.46% of the county vote counted, the voting trend is a valid indicator. In the end, all the votes will be counted...and reported.

 

[iluvatar5150]

The Trump campaign and Arizona governor are declaring that Trump has a 30000 majority in Arizona, the declaration for Boden is false.

Where do you see the AZ governor making this claim?

 

[SimplyMe]

Where do you see the AZ governor making this claim?

I've heard it reported in the "news" -- apparently it is one of the things being pushed by the Trump campaign. Not sure if the Trump campaign is the source or if it is something the Governor may have told reporters.

 

[CitizenD]

Those have been going to Biden at a rate of about 3 to 1. If that holds up, it's going to be neck and neck by the time the count is finished.

Not quite. If the remainder are 3:1 then it will be Biden +2-4 pts, easily.

 

[RocksInMyHead]

Not quite. If the remainder are 3:1 then it will be Biden +2-4 pts, easily.

Depends on how many are left. News said he was down 700k this morning with 1.4 million ballots to count. Back-of-the-envelope math says that for him to be down 300k now with the votes going 3:1, 800k must have been counted (he got 600k, Trump got 200k for a net gain of 400k). That leaves 600k votes, which would break at 450k to 150k. Net gain of 300k - they're in a dead heat. If there's more than 600k left though, then it's Biden's easily.

Edit: gap has been updated to 246k, but the point stands - I don't know how many ballots are left to count.

Edit2: The other consideration is that the 3:1 split is likely an approximation. If he's getting, say, 78% of the mail-in vote, then fewer votes would need to have been counted for him to reach his current mark, and he would need fewer counted to even up the total.

 

[Gifts From Above]

Depends on how many are left. News said he was down 700k this morning with 1.4 million ballots to count. Back-of-the-envelope math says that for him to be down 300k now with the votes going 3:1, 800k must have been counted (he got 600k, Trump got 200k for a net gain of 400k). That leaves 600k votes, which would break at 450k to 150k. Net gain of 300k - they're in a dead heat. If there's more than 600k left though, then it's Biden's easily.

Edit - gap has been updated to 246k, but the point stands - I don't know how many ballots are left to count.

Genius.

 

[RocksInMyHead]

Genius.

3rd grade math.

 

[Sparagmos]

Which is why they will delay the count in the courts until the deadline. Then have the court rule they can't be counted since the deadline has passed.

Forgive me if this is a stupid question but how would they delay the count? On what grounds and why would the court need to stop the count?

 

[Goonie]

Forgive me if this is a stupid question but how would they delay the count? On what grounds and why would the court need to stop the count?

Ask Donald. But that's why they are probably trying to delay the count. Remember 2000, and the court is even more conservative.

 

[RocksInMyHead]

Which is why they will delay the count in the courts until the deadline. Then have the court rule they can't be counted since the deadline has passed.

The only thing they have a prayer of stopping is the counting of ballots received after election day (so, today through Friday, since that was the new deadline given). At this point, those ballots may not matter though. Given the numbers that Biden has been hitting with the mail-in ballots that were already in before the end of the day, he'll likely take the lead with those alone.

And I'm not sure why they think they SC will hear the case after declining it a week ago.

 

[RocksInMyHead]

Forgive me if this is a stupid question but how would they delay the count? On what grounds and why would the court need to stop the count?

They can't stop the count. What they're trying to do is prevent the counting of ballots received after election day. It's the same thing they tried to do last week, but the SC declined the case.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Per waPo:

There are a lot of uncounted votes from Philly and other bluer areas of the state. Above is the 2016 presidential vote.

 

[Sparagmos]

They can't stop the count. What they're trying to do is prevent the counting of ballots received after election day. It's the same thing they tried to do last week, but the SC declined the case.

Ah, got it.

 

[CitizenD]

My brothers and I live in California. Our city/neighboring city is a half million people. In 2016 the city and the neighboring city voted 97% for NOT Donald Trump: 92% Clinton, 5% Jill Stein and 3% Trump. Trump didn't even get second place here.

But then Trump supporters scream fraud when Democratic ballots come in disproportionately from cities during elections. Meanwhile, Republicans are too scared to even step foot in cities like ours because of all the black people, oh, excuse me "poop on the streets and violence."

 

[Goonie]

Could Trump really settle US election result in the supreme court?

With Pennsylvania Trump is looking to see the supreme court rule that ballots received post election will not be counted.

In a previous judgement the supreme court sided with this view. Do with an even more conservative court it's certain that the post election mail ballots will be thrown out.

 

[Vylo]

He's 17 shy.

6, arizona was already called.

 

[Whyayeman]

Oooh! I never thought it would be so close. In the UK there is very little admiration for Trump. We cannot understand what people see in him. It struck me as odd that his lot were crying foul so early.

All I can think of as an explanation is that already the Republican Party's own polls showed Trump has lost. I won't be betting my shirt on it, though.