The Assyrian captivity only lasted 390 years
How did the Assyrian captivity last for 390 years? Israel was invaded by Assyria around 722 BC, and Assyrian was conquered by Babylon in aroun 612 BC.
after which the peoples of the Northern Kingdom scattered all over the place
I agree that the Assyrian exile scattered northern kingdom to the nations.
The poorest were spared the captivity and remained in Samaria, living as second class citizens. Others returned to the region including some to Judea
Correct, some did stay in Samaria and some did move to Judah. We have scripture to support this.
2 Chronicles 30:11 Nevertheless, some from Asher, Manasseh, and Zebulun humbled themselves and came to Jerusalem.
2 Chronciles 30:18 A large number of the people—many from Ephraim, Manasseh, Issachar, and Zebulun—had not purified themselves, yet they ate the Passover, contrary to what was written. But Hezekiah interceded for them, saying, “May the LORD, who is good, provide atonement for everyone
2 chronicles 30:25-26 Then the whole assembly of Judah rejoiced along with the priests and Levites and all the assembly that had come from Israel, including the foreigners who had come from Israel and those who lived in Judah. So there was great rejoicing in Jerusalem, for nothing like this had happened since the days of Solomon son of David king of Israel
Others migrated north into Europe.
Definitely possible, but we have no definite way of knowing.
They were scattered to the four winds, as prophecied.
I agree
Most lost their tribal distinction as history suggests
I agree, even more, they became not God's people and God was no longer their God.
Hosea 1:9
9And the LORD said, “Name him Lo-ammi,
c for
you are not My people, and I am not your God.
d
But God knew who and where they were, and "not a grain (ethnic seed) would fall to earth".
This assumes your interpretation is correct. How does a sieve work? It separates large and smaller objects.
So God promised to shake the northern kingdom among the nations as grain is shaken in a sieve, but NOT a pebble would reach the ground. Jesus states that grain MUST fall to the earth in order to bear fruit.
John 12:24 Truly, truly, I say to you, unless a grain of wheat falls into the earth and dies, it remains alone; but if it dies, it bears much fruit.
Thus, I would argue that another plausible interpretation would be that the pebble that does not fall to the earth, as stated in vs 9 is equal to the the sinners that will die by the sword in vs 10.
Amos 9:9 For surely I will give the command, and I will shake the house of Israel
among all the nations, as grain is sifted in a sieve, but not a pebble will reach the ground.
Amos 9:10 All the sinners among My people will die by the sword, all those who say,‘Disaster will never draw near or confront us
Another plausible interpretation is that the chaff and debris are the ones that fall through the sift, while the grain remains in the sifter. Thus, the disobedient are sent among the nations, while the remnant remains in Israel.