Will Democrats take the house?

[Mountainmanbob]

Well we will see what happens today folks. Let's see if our pole here turns out to be correct?
M-Bob

Final Election Update: Democrats Aren’t Certain To Take The House, But They’re Pretty Clear Favorites

The range of possible outcomes is wide. The shaded area, which covers the middle 80 percent of the forecast, runs from a Democratic gain of only 20 House seats, fewer than the 23 they need to win the House, all the way up to a gain of 54 seats. And remember, that covers only 80 percent of outcomes. There’s a 10 percent chance that Democrats gain more than 54 House seats, and a 10 percent chance they gain fewer than 20. The ranges in the other versions of our forecast, Classic and Lite, are wider still, with the potential for Democratic gains running up to about 60 seats.

 

[Kentonio]

Yep, its going to be a massacre.

 

[Mountainmanbob]

Yep, its going to be a massacre.

We will see at the end of the day how our little poll here compares to what really happens?
M-Bob

 

[Mountainmanbob]

This video puts an interesting take on it all.

 

[Kentonio]

We will see at the end of the day how our little poll here compares to what really happens?
M-Bob

Polling is showing a late 3-4% bump for the Dems and they already had a comfortable chance of winning. This is going to be a very long night for Republicans.

 

[LostMarbels]

Red wave all the way.

I believe democrats are relying on votes that are not going to appear for them. Suppression of key issues did nothing to stop their actual effect. Walkaway for an example. That movement went on without the Democrats approval or contention. They just ignored it. It didn't even happen in their reality.

The situation with Kavanaugh absolutely angered individuals, including women that have turned from the Dems. Many women that support the me to movement are realy upset that their movement was used in that way. There is also records jobs, and low unemployment across the board in all minority groups.

Even democrats want strong borders and a safe soverighn nation, but their party has no platform for that option.

 

[Kentonio]

I believe democrats are relying on votes that are not going to appear for them.

Like the 65+ vote who are polling D for the first time in a very long time? Guess Mitch should have thought twice before he talked publicly about cutting Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. Quite why a usually politically astute man like McConnell thought this was a good idea just weeks before the midterms, remains an open question.

 

[HTacianas]

Well we will see what happens today folks. Let's see if our pole here turns out to be correct?
M-Bob

Final Election Update: Democrats Aren’t Certain To Take The House, But They’re Pretty Clear Favorites

The range of possible outcomes is wide. The shaded area, which covers the middle 80 percent of the forecast, runs from a Democratic gain of only 20 House seats, fewer than the 23 they need to win the House, all the way up to a gain of 54 seats. And remember, that covers only 80 percent of outcomes. There’s a 10 percent chance that Democrats gain more than 54 House seats, and a 10 percent chance they gain fewer than 20. The ranges in the other versions of our forecast, Classic and Lite, are wider still, with the potential for Democratic gains running up to about 60 seats.

No one will touch that with a ten foot "poll" so to say. Not a single pundit will dare make a prediction and even the pollsters are so gun shy after 2016 their answers sound like "the Democrats have a chance to take the House, but the Republicans have a chance to hold on to it".

 

[disciple Clint]

Polling is showing a late 3-4% bump for the Dems and they already had a comfortable chance of winning. This is going to be a very long night for Republicans.

And we all know how reliable those polls are, or did you forget 2016

 

[Mountainmanbob]

Kind of weird but, it seems that the thought of the Democrats regaining the house -- the worst part of it would be having Nancy Pelosi as Speaker again. Every time the goats see Nancy on their big screen outside waterproof TV they just freak out and get nervous. It's a terrible thing to see. They might go on a hunger strike if Nancy gets back in there? Since Trump was elected they have been eating high on the hog but, this might change?
M-Bob

 

[Allandavid]

And we all know how reliable those polls are, or did you forget 2016

Do you know how polling and probability works...?

 

[disciple Clint]

Do you know how polling and probability works...?

Based on the 2016 results I would have to say that yes I know how it works, NOT well that is how it works

 

[Allandavid]

Based on the 2016 results I would have to say that yes I know how it works, NOT well that is how it works

Let’s see...

Suppose there are 3 House seats, A,B and C. Each of them is rated as 60% likely that the Dems will win. What is the chance that the Dems win all 3...?

 

[LostMarbels]

Like the 65+ vote who are polling D for the first time in a very long time? Guess Mitch should have thought twice before he talked publicly about cutting Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. Quite why a usually politically astute man like McConnell thought this was a good idea just weeks before the midterms, remains an open question.

I know... I keep hearing over and over again that medical issues are the most pressing topics of this cycle. Meanwhile, everyone I know is wondering how we are going to eat, pay our bills and if America will even exist if the Dems win this.

 

[disciple Clint]

Let’s see...

Suppose there are 3 House seats, A,B and C. Each of them is rated as 60% likely that the Dems will win. What is the chance that the Dems win all 3...?

lets say that the 60% assumption is incorrect then everything else is also incorrect. You are welcome to espouse your theory but the facts dictate that the polls are unreliable. That is not a theory it is a proven fact once again look at 2016 did you not lean anything from that?

 

[Allandavid]

lets say that the 60% assumption is incorrect then everything else is also incorrect. You are welcome to espouse your theory but the facts dictate that the polls are unreliable. That is not a theory it is a proven fact once again look at 2016 did you not lean anything from that?

As I thought.....

 

[disciple Clint]

As I thought.....

Well keep thinking and when you get some real life experience to go along with the theory you learned you will be much more valuable

 

[Kentonio]

I know... I keep hearing over and over again that medical issues are the most pressing topics of this cycle. Meanwhile, everyone I know is wondering how we are going to eat, pay our bills and if America will even exist if the Dems win this.

Yep no hyperbole there.. Because of course America ceased to exist any of the last dozen times the Democrats held the house and senate.

Incidentally, do medical bills suddenly not count as 'paying your bills' now?

 

[Kentonio]

lets say that the 60% assumption is incorrect then everything else is also incorrect. You are welcome to espouse your theory but the facts dictate that the polls are unreliable. That is not a theory it is a proven fact once again look at 2016 did you not lean anything from that?

Ok, lets try this nice and slow..

If I tell you that based on your ability and record you have a 60% chance of throwing a ball through a hoop, and you miss, do you think that means I was automatically wrong?

 

[USincognito]

No one will touch that with a ten foot "poll" so to say. Not a single pundit will dare make a prediction and even the pollsters are so gun shy after 2016 their answers sound like "the Democrats have a chance to take the House, but the Republicans have a chance to hold on to it".

And we all know how reliable those polls are, or did you forget 2016

As I said in another thread, we'll be hearing about the 2016 polling 20 years from now... and correcting misconceptions about it.

For the record, the polls were accurate in 2016. Sec. Clinton did win the popular vote the electoral college was decided by about 80,000 votes in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Even the conservative Weekly Standard admits it was a razor thin margin in those three states that tipped the balance.
The Election Came Down to 77,744 Votes in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan (Updated)

Any suggestion that polling is a farce because of the 2016 presidential election just doesn't reflect reality.