My Graduate Challenge

[lesliedellow]

You have already said: "Try living in the real world for a change. If the results they, or some similar organisation, returned to their clients were rubbish, they wouldn't stay in business for long."

Ignoring the fact that the company in question is not a "they," you have clearly indicated that it is your opinion that companies that stay in business are generally reliable organizations that do not return rubbish to their clients.

This belief would, presumably, be the basis for the arbitrary faith-based number that you would assign to the probability that the information hypothetically supplied by the business will be accurate.

Or am I mistaken?

Not faith based. Evidence based. As in, they have a high reputation for reliability.

 

[Zosimus]

Not faith based. Evidence based. As in, they have a high reputation for reliability.

How high of a reputation? 80 percent? 85 percent? 90 percent? Or will the number merely be an arbitrary expression of the faith you place in the company's product?

Or are you saying that you have a specific formula or guideline available for assigning prior probabilities?

Faith: (noun) belief that is not based on proof.
He had faith that the hypothesis would be substantiated.

 

[lesliedellow]

How high of a reputation? 80 percent? 85 percent? 90 percent? Or will the number merely be an arbitrary expression of the faith you place in the company's product?

May I invite you to join the real world again? If somebody feels inclined to give a rating other than just reliable, it is likely to be something like reliable, very reliable or extremely reliable. Of course you might seek the opinion of more than one of their past clients before deciding to go with them.

Faith: (noun) belief that is not based on proof.
He had faith that the hypothesis would be substantiated.

Sorry sunshine, but proof is the special preserve of mathematics. For everything else you have to rely upon evidence based decisions.

 

[Zosimus]

May I invite you to join the real world again? If somebody feels inclined to give a rating other than just reliable, it is likely to be something like reliable, very reliable or extremely reliable. Of course you might seek the opinion of more than one of their past clients before deciding to go with them.

You continue to treat the question as a hot potato. How do you propose to use Bayesian statistics and calculate the formula when your prior probability for how good the company's results will be range from "reliable" through "extremely reliable?"

P(H|E) = P(E|H) * P(H) / (those boys are pretty reliable) = ????

Sorry, "pretty reliable" is not going to help you solve that formula. You need an actual number.

Sorry sunshine, but proof is the special preserve of mathematics. For everything else you have to rely upon evidence based decisions.

Sorry, bub, maybe you didn't notice, but mathematics is what we're talking about. Bayesian statistics -- don't you remember? It's supposed to be a panacea to the logical defects of science. However, you cannot explain how it works, why it works, how you would use it, etc., etc., and you apparently have a math degree.

 

[Hammster]

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Closed at OP request.


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