CabVet
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- Dec 7, 2011
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So, AV, lets do a little exercise, imagine the following situation:
Mike is an average student (C average). He is taking a physics class, in which he has turned in the homeworks, which are usually about half correct. His best friend John is also in the class. John is an excellent student, who is very diligent with his studies. John speaks out in class, but Mike does not. Both John and Mike received As on their midterms. The teacher thinks that Mike may have cheated on the exam, since Mike was sitting next to John.
Now let's classify the things above into evidence and hypotheses:
Evidence 1. Mike is a C student.
Evidence 2. Mike's homeworks are always half wrong.
Evidence 3. John is an A student.
Evidence 4. Both John and Mike get an A on the midterm.
Evidence 5. Mike was sitting close to John during the midterm.
Hypothesis 1. Mike cheated by copying his answers from John.
Hypothesis 2. Mike studied harder than ever before.
Only with the evidence above you could say that hypothesis 1 is the best you got, and you will go with it. Now let's suppose that after a few weeks you obtain the following evidence:
Evidence 6. During the week prior to the exam Mike borrowed many books from the library.
Evidence 7. After the midterm Mike starts bringing his homework 100% correct.
Evidence 8. Mike sits far from John in the finals and also gets an A.
So, three new pieces of evidence and Hypothesis 2 starts to get a lot nicer, doesn't it? Do evidence 6-8 make evidence 1-5 false?
Mike is an average student (C average). He is taking a physics class, in which he has turned in the homeworks, which are usually about half correct. His best friend John is also in the class. John is an excellent student, who is very diligent with his studies. John speaks out in class, but Mike does not. Both John and Mike received As on their midterms. The teacher thinks that Mike may have cheated on the exam, since Mike was sitting next to John.
Now let's classify the things above into evidence and hypotheses:
Evidence 1. Mike is a C student.
Evidence 2. Mike's homeworks are always half wrong.
Evidence 3. John is an A student.
Evidence 4. Both John and Mike get an A on the midterm.
Evidence 5. Mike was sitting close to John during the midterm.
Hypothesis 1. Mike cheated by copying his answers from John.
Hypothesis 2. Mike studied harder than ever before.
Only with the evidence above you could say that hypothesis 1 is the best you got, and you will go with it. Now let's suppose that after a few weeks you obtain the following evidence:
Evidence 6. During the week prior to the exam Mike borrowed many books from the library.
Evidence 7. After the midterm Mike starts bringing his homework 100% correct.
Evidence 8. Mike sits far from John in the finals and also gets an A.
So, three new pieces of evidence and Hypothesis 2 starts to get a lot nicer, doesn't it? Do evidence 6-8 make evidence 1-5 false?
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