The Hill: Pollsters continue to be confounded by Donald Trump

[NightHawkeye]

From the "We're at a turning point," files: Pollsters dumbfounded by Trump | The Hill

The shocks have come in quick succession, with Trump first rocketing to the top of national polls, and then taking double-digit leads in the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

In another act of political magic, Trump managed to flip his favorability rating from negative to positive in one poll during the span of a month — a feat that Monmouth University’s Patrick Murray called “astounding.”

“That defies any rule in presidential politics that I’ve ever seen,” Murray, the director Monmouth’s Polling Institute, told The Hill.

Trump’s favorability rose from 20 percent to 52 percent among Republican voters between July and August, Monmouth found.
...
“It will take another three or four weeks before we realize what happened, whether he can stick around or if his support is eroding,” Murray said.

“We are at the turning point, the eye of the storm, but we don’t know how much longer the storm is going to continue.”​

Another turning point? Still?

 

[NightHawkeye]

The Week has an excellent article asking an excellent question: Why not Donald Trump? | The Week

It can't be that he lacks experience. He has more experience as an executive (in a business context, of course) than most candidates — certainly more than our current president had when he ran.
...
It can't be that he's too much of a hard-right conservative — among other things, because he isn't one ...
...
Yes, Trump is basically executing a hostile takeover of the Republican Party. Is that supposed to make the civic-minded shudder? Does the Republican Party strike you as a particularly civic-minded organization? Is there any organization you can name more deeply deserving of being hostilely taken over in this manner?
...
Donald Trump's greatest weakness as a candidate has always been the utter ridiculousness of the proposition. Now that he is actually a plausible contender for the presidency, either as a Republican or as an Independent, it will take more than derision to beat him. It may take an actual reason why he would be a worse president than another contender — and a reason that resonates with the broad swath of Americans who are not wedded to the core ideological commitments of either of our major parties.

So? Why not Trump?
​

In the old days, the press used to talk about candidates having charisma ... an absolute necessity for presidential candidates. That's one attribute Trump has in spades. The media of course isn't interested in talking about charisma these days ... for obvious reasons.

 

[rambot]

The Week has an excellent article asking an excellent question: Why not Donald Trump? | The Week
...

Donald Trump's greatest weakness as a candidate has always been the utter ridiculousness of the proposition. Now that he is actually a plausible contender for the presidency, either as a Republican or as an Independent, it will take more than derision to beat him. It may take an actual reason why he would be a worse president than another contender — and a reason that resonates with the broad swath of Americans who are not wedded to the core ideological commitments of either of our major parties.​

My personal issue is not with him as a candidate but with him as a HUMAN BEING. His "positive" attributes, in my mind, are far faded out by his more negative ones.

That is why he would be worse than other contenders.

Currently, his only platform laid out on his website is on immigration reform. The fact that a certain segment of people are willing to follow him without having heard a clear outline of his plans and platforms, speaks more to the detritus of American citizenry than any power Trump has.


​

 

[JustOneWay]

The Week has an excellent article asking an excellent question: Why not Donald Trump? | The Week

It can't be that he lacks experience. He has more experience as an executive (in a business context, of course) than most candidates — certainly more than our current president had when he ran.
...
It can't be that he's too much of a hard-right conservative — among other things, because he isn't one ...
...
Yes, Trump is basically executing a hostile takeover of the Republican Party. Is that supposed to make the civic-minded shudder? Does the Republican Party strike you as a particularly civic-minded organization? Is there any organization you can name more deeply deserving of being hostilely taken over in this manner?
...
Donald Trump's greatest weakness as a candidate has always been the utter ridiculousness of the proposition. Now that he is actually a plausible contender for the presidency, either as a Republican or as an Independent, it will take more than derision to beat him. It may take an actual reason why he would be a worse president than another contender — and a reason that resonates with the broad swath of Americans who are not wedded to the core ideological commitments of either of our major parties.

So? Why not Trump?
​

In the old days, the press used to talk about candidates having charisma ... an absolute necessity for presidential candidates. That's one attribute Trump has in spades. The media of course isn't interested in talking about charisma these days ... for obvious reasons.

I find no compelling attractiveness in Trump. I did not like him before he ran for President, and now I dislike him more. I find no inspiration in the man. I see a lot of things in him that I tell my children not to be like. If people are swooning over his charisma, I question the gullibility of those people.

I don't need the media to tell me anything about him....all I have to do is listen to him. Enough of this media blame game.

 

[NightHawkeye]

Currently, his only platform laid out on his website is on immigration reform. The fact that a certain segment of people are willing to follow him without having heard a clear outline of his plans and platforms, speaks more to the detritus of American citizenry than any power Trump has.

I believe his supporters have heard him clearly ...

Questions? Did Barack outline more?

 

[rambot]

I believe his supporters have heard him clearly ...

Questions? Did Barack outline more?

Seriously? Why are you bringing this back to Obama; let's take a look at present day. Look at Sanders' website. There are more than a few things there.

And "hearing" a sentence fragment is NOT the same as policies and platform; I'm sure you can read well enough to know the difference between what I wrote and what you chose to read so I encourage you to reflect on what the difference may be before we go into a pointless back and forth over this issue.

Also, why is "charisma" and charisma alone, seemingly enough to vote someone in? Not to Godwin this thread THIS fast but Hitler had charisma too; a lot of leaders have charisma. Vote for ideas NOT charisma.

 

[NightHawkeye]

Seriously? Why are you bringing this back to Obama; let's take a look at present day. Look at Sanders' website. There are more than a few things there.

And "hearing" a sentence fragment is NOT the same as policies and platform; I'm sure you can read well enough to know the difference between what I wrote and what you chose to read so I encourage you to reflect on what the difference may be before we go into a pointless back and forth over this issue.

Also, why is "charisma" and charisma alone, seemingly enough to vote someone in? Not to Godwin this thread THIS fast but Hitler had charisma too; a lot of leaders have charisma. Vote for ideas NOT charisma.

Addressing your last point first, Hitler was elected with a minority of the vote, something around 30%. Hitler was not really that charismatic.

As for "platform", that is something parties and candidates develop as the campaign progresses. Trump is doing that. Again, I challenge you to tell me how the extent of Trump's platform is greatly different than Barack Obama's was at the same stage of the campaign. You, after all, are the one berating Donald Trump for not having a fully developed platform. What is your basis for that ... other than today's Democrat "talking points"?

 

[cow451]

I never liked Trump, and my opinion has not changed. He is a world-class thin-skinned self absorbed baloney sandwich artist. His business style works well for the things he does. It will not work well in public office.

Sen.Bob Corker, (R) TN was successful in business prior to getting into politics. He was also hot-headed and thin-skinned. But he has adapted to the Senate by cooling his jets and working with his peers on both sides of the isle.

I just do not see Trump being able to do that.

 

[JustOneWay]

Addressing your last point first, Hitler was elected with a minority of the vote, something around 30%. Hitler was not really that charismatic.

As for "platform", that is something parties and candidates develop as the campaign progresses. Trump is doing that. Again, I challenge you to tell me how the extent of Trump's platform is greatly different than Barack Obama's was at the same stage of the campaign. You, after all, are the one berating Donald Trump for not having a fully developed platform. What is your basis for that ... other than today's Democrat "talking points"?

Hitler was very charismatic, and history often talks about it. There are books about it.

You know who else got a minority of the vote? That's right...Bush

(reverse Godwin)

 

[Rationalt]

I never liked Trump, and my opinion has not changed. He is a world-class thin-skinned self absorbed baloney sandwich artist. His business style works well for the things he does. It will not work well in public office.

Sen.Bob Corker, (R) TN was successful in business prior to getting into politics. He was also hot-headed and thin-skinned. But he has adapted to the Senate by cooling his jets and working with his peers on both sides of the isle.

I just do not see Trump being able to do that.

So, You think Sen.Bob Corker's model is something to be emulated by every other businessman who enters public office ?.

 

[NightHawkeye]

Hitler was very charismatic, and history often talks about it. There are books about it.

You know who else got a minority of the vote? That's right...Bush

(reverse Godwin)

Here are some interesting insights on the subject ...
What Made Adolf Hitler a Charismatic Leader?

Contrary to the popular view of someone charismatic Hitler was not a very social person. He was unable to build intimate relationships with people and failed at making friends. Yet, it was already clear at the time that Hitler possessed charisma.

Rees cites a couple of revealing anecdotes that illustrate the young man’s determination to undertake the most ambitious projects. According to his former housemate Kubizek, one day Hitler wanted to write an opera and the next, with equal vigour, he would decide to renew the sewage system in Vienna.

This, according to the historian, is the basis for charisma: having a clear vision and a mission on a subject and the determination to convince the world of that mission.
...
In his speeches he built upon feelings which were already present in German society and said out loud what many were thinking privately.
...
In the 1920s, only a minority of Germans sympathised with Hitler, as became clear with his failed putsch in 1923 and his defeat in the elections of 1928, where he obtained only 2,6 percent of the votes.
​

Makes sense. Trump is the only candidate expressing a clear vision ... and displaying the confidence to carry through with it.

Contrast that with Jeb Bush whose only vision seems to be his last name and the money to run commercials.

 

[JustOneWay]

Here are some interesting insights on the subject ...
What Made Adolf Hitler a Charismatic Leader?

Contrary to the popular view of someone charismatic Hitler was not a very social person. He was unable to build intimate relationships with people and failed at making friends. Yet, it was already clear at the time that Hitler possessed charisma.

Rees cites a couple of revealing anecdotes that illustrate the young man’s determination to undertake the most ambitious projects. According to his former housemate Kubizek, one day Hitler wanted to write an opera and the next, with equal vigour, he would decide to renew the sewage system in Vienna.

This, according to the historian, is the basis for charisma: having a clear vision and a mission on a subject and the determination to convince the world of that mission.
...
In his speeches he built upon feelings which were already present in German society and said out loud what many were thinking privately.
...
In the 1920s, only a minority of Germans sympathised with Hitler, as became clear with his failed putsch in 1923 and his defeat in the elections of 1928, where he obtained only 2,6 percent of the votes.
​

Makes sense. Trump is the only candidate expressing a clear vision ... and displaying the confidence to carry through with it.

Contrast that with Jeb Bush whose only vision seems to be his last name and the money to run commercials.

What vision? To make America great again?

It is clear that he is recycling Reagan's old slogan. No wonder for all the swooning. It's like Reagan all over again. Only thing left to do is have Charlie Daniels to make up a new patriot song.

I like Steven King's slogan suggestion for Trump
'If you're white, you're all right!'

 

[NightHawkeye]

What vision? To make America great again?

It is clear that he is recycling Reagan's old slogan. No wonder for all the swooning. It's like Reagan all over again. Only thing left to do is have Charlie Daniels to make up a new patriot song.

Thanks for the reminder ...

Personally, I expect there will be younger musicians up to the task.

 

[JustOneWay]

Thanks for the reminder ...

Personally, I expect there will be younger musicians up to the task.

You picked the wrong song. This was the song to usher in Ronnie (awesome BTW)

 

[NightHawkeye]

This month's Quinnipiac poll continues the trend ...
Trump lead grows, Clinton slips: poll | AFP/Yahoo

Trump, the combative real estate mogul, leads the 16 other Republican candidates with 28 percent support among registered voters nationwide, up from 20 percent in a similar July 30 survey by Quinnipiac University.

Thursday's lead marks the widest margin for any Republican so far in the election cycle, the survey said.

Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson placed a distant second with 12 percent, followed by former Florida governor Jeb Bush, Senator Ted Cruz and Senator Marco Rubio, each with seven percent.
​

Kinda looks like Trump will get center-stage at the CNN debate.

 

[rambot]

Addressing your last point first, Hitler was elected with a minority of the vote, something around 30%. Hitler was not really that charismatic.

As for "platform", that is something parties and candidates develop as the campaign progresses. Trump is doing that. Again, I challenge you to tell me how the extent of Trump's platform is greatly different than Barack Obama's was at the same stage of the campaign. You, after all, are the one berating Donald Trump for not having a fully developed platform. What is your basis for that ... other than today's Democrat "talking points"?

You keep bringing it back to OBama. I don't care. I'm not going to keep going back there NightHawkeye. Let's try to exist in the here and now because I don't remember, and I didn't really care; unless you care to provide a screen shot of Obama's website at the time, I have no interest in commenting on that. Why are you SOOO obsessed with Obama, by the way?

I pointed out to you that Sanders' political stance is fairly clearly laid out on his site. THAT is what I'm basing it on. Those websites and those platforms allow voters to see where a politician will try to focus and/or what they will try to change. Right now, Trump is just the immigration policy.

 

[rambot]

Here are some interesting insights on the subject ...
What Made Adolf Hitler a Charismatic Leader?

Contrary to the popular view of someone charismatic Hitler was not a very social person. He was unable to build intimate relationships with people and failed at making friends. Yet, it was already clear at the time that Hitler possessed charisma.

Rees cites a couple of revealing anecdotes that illustrate the young man’s determination to undertake the most ambitious projects. According to his former housemate Kubizek, one day Hitler wanted to write an opera and the next, with equal vigour, he would decide to renew the sewage system in Vienna.

This, according to the historian, is the basis for charisma: having a clear vision and a mission on a subject and the determination to convince the world of that mission.
...
In his speeches he built upon feelings which were already present in German society and said out loud what many were thinking privately.
...
In the 1920s, only a minority of Germans sympathised with Hitler, as became clear with his failed putsch in 1923 and his defeat in the elections of 1928, where he obtained only 2,6 percent of the votes.
​

Makes sense. Trump is the only candidate expressing a clear vision ... and displaying the confidence to carry through with it.

Contrast that with Jeb Bush whose only vision seems to be his last name and the money to run commercials.

I agree. Trump is a lot like Hitler. I guess we can now get that out of the way.

 

[Rationalt]

You keep bringing it back to OBama. ..

I think Bringing that comparison is relevant.It brings forth the attitude of supporters on either side. My narcissist is better than your narcissist kind of attitude.

 

[JustOneWay]

I agree. Trump is a lot like Hitler. I guess we can now get that out of the way.

All he needs is to kill an animal so he can get a nifty mustache....

 

[cow451]

So, You think Sen.Bob Corker's model is something to be emulated by every other businessman who enters public office ?.

It is an example, not the cookie-cutter model. Governmental business is different than private business and requires some additional skill sets I have never seen in Trump.