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Discussion and Debate
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General Political Discussion
Will WWIII Come from the North?
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<blockquote data-quote="tampasteve" data-source="post: 76399188" data-attributes="member: 398316"><p>The US and NATO will not do anything militarily against Russia for actions in Ukraine, especially with our current administration. I could see China using it as an opportunity to move on Taiwan....but even there I personally don't see a shooting war between Taiwan and China involving the US. I see it far more likely actions are taken, perhaps a skirmish or two, and then back door talks with the US telling Taiwan we can't actually risk a real war with China, and then the ROC coming to terms with the mainland. They will bargain for a situation like Hong Kong, knowing their independence will be eroded sooner than later. </p><p></p><p>It is hard to imagine a real shooting war with the people of Taiwan taking the most casualties. It is a highly developed society, with a densely populated landmass. It is very difficult to believe the people would be willing to devastate their nation for a war that they know they will loose. The hope has always been to hold out long enough for the US to do something, but at this point it seems very unlikely our administration would actually do anything to defend the ROC. </p><p></p><p>The mainland is not the China of 1960. The ROC is not in the position it was in the 1970's, and the USA is not in the position of strength we were in at the end of the cold war. Global priorities and strategies have changed. China is ascending and it seems the US is descending out of global dominance. The situation in Taiwan is not tenable forever, something will have to give eventually.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="tampasteve, post: 76399188, member: 398316"] The US and NATO will not do anything militarily against Russia for actions in Ukraine, especially with our current administration. I could see China using it as an opportunity to move on Taiwan....but even there I personally don't see a shooting war between Taiwan and China involving the US. I see it far more likely actions are taken, perhaps a skirmish or two, and then back door talks with the US telling Taiwan we can't actually risk a real war with China, and then the ROC coming to terms with the mainland. They will bargain for a situation like Hong Kong, knowing their independence will be eroded sooner than later. It is hard to imagine a real shooting war with the people of Taiwan taking the most casualties. It is a highly developed society, with a densely populated landmass. It is very difficult to believe the people would be willing to devastate their nation for a war that they know they will loose. The hope has always been to hold out long enough for the US to do something, but at this point it seems very unlikely our administration would actually do anything to defend the ROC. The mainland is not the China of 1960. The ROC is not in the position it was in the 1970's, and the USA is not in the position of strength we were in at the end of the cold war. Global priorities and strategies have changed. China is ascending and it seems the US is descending out of global dominance. The situation in Taiwan is not tenable forever, something will have to give eventually. [/QUOTE]
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