Interesting point of view. If St Peter was initially directed to Rome because of its political significance as the capital of the Roman Empire and Gods desire to convert that Empire then why did the Papacy not move to Constantinople when that became the capital of that Empire. Even through the barbarian invasions and as you say when Romes political significance declined signifignantly the popes stuck with Rome. That seems to have been a spiritually significant choice on their part. My understanding was that there were a number of factors in the decision to go to Avignon:
1) The power of the French Kings over the papacy
2) A struggle between 2 prominent Roman families who wanted to determine the succession of the papacy
3) Bandits in Rome and general civil unrest
4) A dissatisfaction with accommodations in Rome. Major fires had ruined the Vatican palace in 1307 and 1361
But these seem quite worldly reasons to me and actually I could understand if this reasoning process would have angered God sufficiently to allow plagues and wars and famines to hit Europe. Urban V was finally escorted back to Rome by Florentine soldiers commanded by Giovanni Boccaccio (Author of Decameron) in 1367 but he returned to Avignon in 1370 and then again Gregory XI moved the papacy back in 1377 ending the Babylonian captivity. Thereafter the church spent a lot of money doing the place up and completely rebuilt the Apostolic palace for instance. It was shortly after the restoration of the architectural glory of the Vatican that the Reformation began.
I doubt that Europe will go Muslim and Italy remains deeply Catholic but even if it did not sure there would be a justification for moving the Holy See. The popes are the Bishop of Rome and how can they be that in South America?
To be honest, I'm not familiar with the temporary move to Avignon, but I'd be very surprised if God would punish the whole of Europe because of political chicanery by a small group of powerful people, by butchering 30-60 percent of the population using a virulent bacteria.
From Wikipedia -
The Black Death, also known as the Pestilence and the Plague,[a] was the most fatal pandemic recorded in human history, resulting in the deaths of up to 75-200 million people in Eurasia and North Africa, peaking in Europe from 1347 to 1351.
The "Avignon Papacy" lasted from 1309-1377, which incorporated the time of the Black Death. It swept right across Europe, but probably originated in Central Asia or East Asia. So it affected areas which had nothing to do with the Catholic Church at the time, including North Africa which was predominantly Moslem by that time.
As to whether Western Europe and Italy will go Moslem, that's up for opinionated grabs. It's just that I developed a lot of respect for the old pastor who I was talking with when this topic came up, and I found from personal experience he was uncannily prophetic. If he said he "thought" something would happen I found it eventually did. I say "thought" because in my (not always humble) opinion, I think
God was telling him what was going to happen.
If Islam did get control of Western Europe, you can bet your bottom dollar they'd no more tolerate Rome as the central authority for the Catholic Church than the Ottomans did for Constantinople to remain the central authority for the Byzantine (aka Orthodox) Church. The Vatican would be
told to go.
But since neither
mindlight or I know exactly what God will or will not allow, about all we can do is wait and see how things pan out in the course of time.
If we're still around to see it.
One thing though - God's not soft. If He was prepared to sit there and watch the Black Death as it went through the motions, then He's no wallflower. One of the quotes of my old pastor was "I think they (the Catholic Church) s
oft-pedal judgement. .. I think they do anyway." He also predicted I'd become Catholic, which I did. And a few other things as well, all accurately.
I suppose I'm more aware of judgement that most, as I make the claim my (very cruel) father appeared in my bedroom the night he died. We argued and conversed. but at the very end of this peculiar session, he turned to his right. He said "No!" Then with far more urgency "No!!" Then he screamed. The terror was so contagious I started to scream.
Then he just disappeared, and I haven't seen him since. I didn't even get to view the body, as he was dead for four days before he was found, locked up in summer heat in a flat.
That was just over 40 years ago, and I still remember most of the proceedings, and in particular the terrifying scream which ended it all. I don't remember dreams - to this day I couldn't relate to you a single dream.
God ain't soft. With all due respect, I wouldn't like to be in the shoes of some. In fact, my old pastor said, in his own opinion, "I (the pastor) don't think I'd like to be in your father's shoes."
But on the other hand, God's not going to kill millions because of a misguided move by a Pope or three. They had nothing to do with the decision.
So how do we play off these immense natural evils against God's alleged "Love"? It would be like standing on the beach with the 2004 Tsunami coming in, with the irresistible churning wave of turbulent dirty water about to break over you, and calmly telling the terrified family a few feet away as they tried to protect their children, "Nothing to worry about! God loves you!!"