Most congregations won't split. Even jurisdictions may not. However based on experience in other churches, here's the most likely result:
* the "traditional model," i.e. leave the Book of Discipline alone. The Western Jurisdiction is in direct violation. Unless the leadership decides to ignore it (and I think there's enough opposition to make that hard), the Western Jurisdiction will be disciplined in a way that will force them to leave. Most likely some other jurisdictions would join them.
* the "one church model". Requires changing the Book of Discipline to allow local option. Quite likely no jurisdictions will leave. But some congregations probably will (based on experience with other mainline denominations). Some African groups may feel the need to separate.
I've already speculated on what's likely to happen. I don't it adds anything to do so again. But you might find it interesting to look at the relevant articles at the UMC Insight web site,
https://um-insight.net/topics/umc_schism/. If you read a sampling of those articles, the picture is not encouraging. Liberal groups are insistent, and conservatives want a purge and something closer to a credal denomination. Let's hope this is scare-mongering.