Trump's risky tactics paying off?

[Tom 1]

There seem to be some positives here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...60ce2a8148f_story.html?utm_term=.76a892bce7be

Less reliance on Chinese manufacturing may mean less intellectual property theft, and if US companies don't just move existing operations from China to SE Asia could mean more jobs in the US - ?
Next step would be to strengthen US relations with ASEAN countries.

 

[Tanj]

There seem to be some positives here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...60ce2a8148f_story.html?utm_term=.76a892bce7be

Less reliance on Chinese manufacturing may mean less intellectual property theft, and if US companies don't just move all operations from China to SE Asia could mean more jobs in the US - ?

It's such a fundamental paradigm shift for both countries, I hope it all ends up positive.

Next step would be to strengthen US relations with ASEAN countries.

Was that sarcasm? It's so hard to tell on the internet. I do agree that some sort of let's say "partnership" which is.... trans-pacific and excludes CHina might be a plan.

 

[Tom 1]

Was that sarcasm? It's so hard to tell on the internet. I do agree that some sort of let's say "partnership" which is.... trans-pacific and excludes CHina might be a plan.

Not sarcasm, China continues to increase influence across SE Asia and the US should be taking notice and strengthening their own political and economic influence there. Duterte for example has no sentimental ties to the US and is open to closer links with China, if Trump continues to take little interest any Western involvement will gradually dwindle.

 

[Nithavela]

Not sarcasm, China continues to increase influence across SE Asia and the US should be taking notice and strengthening their own political and economic influence there. Duterte for example has no sentimental ties to the US and is open to closer links with China, if Trump continues to take little interest any Western involvement will gradually dwindle.

Better give the man who declared open season on his own populace some VIP treatment.

 

[Tom 1]

Better give the man who declared open season on his own populace some VIP treatment.

Not VIP treatment, but the strengthening of economic and political ties. It's no particular Kudos for Duterte to do that with the US rather than China. China is building in the South Pacific, quietly buying up and developing business in The Philippines, making energy deals, which lead to political handshakes, while Trump tweets about the press from his bedroom. I'd rather have US influence in SE Asia than Chinese.

 

[Kentonio]

Not VIP treatment, but the strengthening of economic and political ties. It's no particular Kudos for Duterte to do that with the US rather than China. China is building in the South Pacific, quietly buying up and developing business in The Philippines, making energy deals, which lead to political handshakes, while Trump tweets about the press from his bedroom. I'd rather have US influence in SE Asia than Chinese.

Have we not learned from making the same mistakes over and over? The west support authoritarian leaders purely to hold influence, then in future the oppressed populace end up with a huge grudge against us.

Why exactly do you think that America SHOULD have more influence in SE Asia than the Chinese? Have you seen a map lately?

 

[Tom 1]

Why exactly do you think that America SHOULD have more influence in SE Asia than the Chinese? Have you seen a map lately?

How d'you mean?

 

[Tom 1]

Have we not learned from making the same mistakes over and over? The west support authoritarian leaders purely to hold influence, then in future the oppressed populace end up with a huge grudge against us.

What do you see as being the options?

 

[SkyWriting]

There seem to be some positives here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...60ce2a8148f_story.html?utm_term=.76a892bce7be

Less reliance on Chinese manufacturing may mean less intellectual property theft, and if US companies don't just move existing operations from China to SE Asia could mean more jobs in the US - ?
Next step would be to strengthen US relations with ASEAN countries.

It's pretty simple. You can't offer to lift tariffs if you have none in place.
You have no negotiation power if you have no financial policy to trade.

 

[Kentonio]

How d'you mean?

China have a population of nearly 1.4 billion people and an economy that is going to overtake the US in the near future. By basically any measure they are about to become a superpower and there's absolutely nothing anyone can do to prevent that. Nor should there be. With that in mind, what is the actual benefit of America ending up in another superpower standoff with China with the old tactics of supporting authoritarian regimes in far off countries just to act as counters to Chinese power?

You already have friends in Japan and elsewhere and supporting them is reasonable and acceptable, but as soon as you start supporting immoral regimes for geo-political reasons you open up cans of worms that history has shown us inevitably have unpleasant consequences.

 

[Tom 1]

With that in mind, what is the actual benefit of America ending up in another superpower standoff with China with the old tactics of supporting authoritarian regimes in far off countries just to act as counters to Chinese power?

You already have friends in Japan and elsewhere and supporting them is reasonable and acceptable, but as soon as you start supporting immoral regimes for geo-political reasons you open up cans of worms that history has shown us inevitably have unpleasant consequences.

It's not such a volatile scenario as in the ME, or in Latinamerica in the 80s for example. It's more of a low key and steady maintaining of trade relationships that can prevent things swinging too far one way or the other. Japan is edging closer to China also. No-one likes to be ignored, the WH doesn't have to make some enormous overtures, just show enough interest to keep people engaged and maintain some balance.

 

[Tom 1]

It's pretty simple. You can't offer to lift tariffs if you have none in place.
You have no negotiation power if you have no financial policy to trade.

Sure, but it's a gamble. This is an indication perhaps that there might be a positive payoff.

 

[Kentonio]

It's not such a volatile scenario as in the ME, or in Latinamerica in the 80s for example. It's more of a low key and steady maintaining of trade relationships that can prevent things swinging too far one way or the other. Japan is edging closer to China also. No-one likes to be ignored, the WH doesn't have to make some enormous overtures, just show enough interest to keep people engaged and maintain some balance.

It's not as volatile yet its true, but countries under authoritarian leaders can break down very quickly, and the people usually remember who supported their oppressors. I actually agree with you about maintaining trade and normal relations (although calling out any human rights abuses where necessary), but then again the US never did just ignore the Philippines anyway. The natural urge of countries close to China to move towards more alignment with China is perfectly natural though, and I'd argue not necessarily a negative. The US and China are great trading partners (Trump rhetoric aside) and that could be the basis of a perfectly good relationship between the two as future peers.

 

[dgiharris]

There seem to be some positives here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...60ce2a8148f_story.html?utm_term=.76a892bce7be

Less reliance on Chinese manufacturing may mean less intellectual property theft, and if US companies don't just move existing operations from China to SE Asia could mean more jobs in the US - ?
Next step would be to strengthen US relations with ASEAN countries.

I have a big problem with this administration in regards to long term actions... To me, it just appears that no real strategic long term thought goes into anything. Everything, and I mean EVERYTHING is just a shoot-from-the-hip-whim from Trump. Afterwards, his base and supporters scramble to retroactively apply strategy and rationale...

If we were really thinking strategic and long term, then we wouldn't have soured relations between Mexico and Canada and our other allies nor imposed Tariffs to begin with or started a Trade war...

China have a population of nearly 1.4 billion people and an economy that is going to overtake the US in the near future. By basically any measure they are about to become a superpower and there's absolutely nothing anyone can do to prevent that. Nor should there be. With that in mind, what is the actual benefit of America ending up in another superpower standoff with China with the old tactics of supporting authoritarian regimes in far off countries just to act as counters to Chinese power?

You already have friends in Japan and elsewhere and supporting them is reasonable and acceptable, but as soon as you start supporting immoral regimes for geo-political reasons you open up cans of worms that history has shown us inevitably have unpleasant consequences.

Yeah this...

Apparently, this administration isn't a fan of reading history books or briefings that has too many details/information.

 

[CRAZY_CAT_WOMAN]

All I see is prices will go up in the Unites States. As for China. Im not sure Trump will be hard on them. Since his family does business with them. But will it help American in the long run. I doubt it. Since different countries still sell things cheaper.

 

[Halbhh]

There seem to be some positives here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...60ce2a8148f_story.html?utm_term=.76a892bce7be

Less reliance on Chinese manufacturing may mean less intellectual property theft, and if US companies don't just move existing operations from China to SE Asia could mean more jobs in the US - ?
Next step would be to strengthen US relations with ASEAN countries.

One thing Trump has done controversially that also seems the right path to me (and this is after having read many hundreds of articles in economics and economic news, or thousands), is to threaten and do a so-called 'trade war' with the rogue nation China (rogue in it's way of doing business in as relative to the West).

About your good idea to strengthen relations with ASEAN countries -- we were (past tense, before Trump sunk it), and it was called The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) --
also called the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, is a defunct proposed trade agreement between Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam, and United States signed on 4 February 2016, which was not ratified as required and did not take effect. After the United States withdrew its signature,[6] the agreement could not enter into force. The remaining nations negotiated a new trade agreement called Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, which incorporates most of the provisions of the TPP and which enters into force on 30 December 2018.
Trans-Pacific Partnership - Wikipedia

To me, my impression/guess: it looks as if Trump just wanted to replace the TPP or renegotiate from strength with nations individually, because it's not good enough to have something Obama did (that even if that something was actually very good, it would be bad because it was Obama, not Trump). He'd like to, metaphorically, buy a building, or demolish one, either remodel or rebuild, and then put 20 foot high letters on the side: TRUMP. That's not to say making some new agreements individually has to be less good, as time has passed, and such can be made better. It's a kind of....real estate speculation. Borrow big, build big, glitzy, showy, and either the economy makes the bet/gamble/speculation (with others peoples' money in the form of large loans) pay off, or...if the economy turns south just write off the loss and pay zero taxes for year after year after year, even while you live in great opulence, conspicuous consumption. "Mammon".

 

[Tanj]

One thing Trump has done controversially that also seems the right path to me (and this is after having read many hundreds of articles in economics and economic news, or thousands), is to threaten and do a so-called 'trade war' with the rouge nation China (rouge in it's way of doing business in as relative to the West).

Sorry, but this one's a bit of a bee in my bonnet. China isn't wearing red makeup. It may or may not be rogue, but the only thing rouge about it is its flag.

 

[Halbhh]

Sorry, but this one's a bit of a bee in my bonnet. China isn't wearing red makeup. It may or may not be rogue, but the only thing rouge about it is its flag.

Touech! ;-) (heh heh, just kidding. Thanks!)

 

[Aryeh Jay]

I think that an 800 point drop is quite positive.

 

[LoAmmi]

I think that an 800 point drop is quite positive.

The greatest drop! Nobody has ever had a great drop like this before.