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The U.S. crime rate is still dropping, FBI data shows. Q4 2023 had 13% drop in murder, 6% drop in violent crime
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<blockquote data-quote="ThatRobGuy" data-source="post: 77611027" data-attributes="member: 123415"><p>There's some interesting facets to this one...and the claims of "the crime rate is going down" are a tad misleading.</p><p></p><p>When you frame it into the time window of a slight drop off after a spike, that's a bit of "creative statistical work" to say the least.</p><p></p><p>If over a 3 year period</p><p>If Dave increased his daily beer intake from 8 to 10 over a period of 2 years, and then in the final six months, scaled it back down to 8.</p><p></p><p>It'd be, albeit statistically true, but a little misleading to say "Dave's drinking has actually gone down 20% in the past 6 months" as a means of implying "people who are concerned about Dave's drinking are just overreacting"</p><p></p><p></p><p>It's also fair to point out that the FBI crime reports (that indicate a drop in crime) coincide with them switching to using the solitary data source called the NIBRS...a source for which nearly a third of the nation's law enforcement entities aren't reporting data to.</p><p></p><p>[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.themarshallproject.org/2022/08/15/see-if-police-in-your-state-reported-crime-data-to-the-fbi[/URL]</p><p></p><p>as opposed to before, where they used the NIBRS in conjunction with the NCVS to get a bigger picture.</p><p></p><p>[ATTACH=full]344467[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><p>So it stands to reason that it would show an overall decrease if they keep the source that shows the numbers going down (and that have heavily varying rates of participation), and put a <a href="https://bjs.ojp.gov/programs/ncvs/instrument-redesign" target="_blank">3 year pause</a> on the one that showed certain crimes going up.</p><p></p><p></p><p>Perhaps the reason people perceive crime going up is because of a combination of both personal experiences and observations, plus getting some mixed messages.</p><p></p><p>"<a href="https://www.wbng.com/2024/03/04/gov-hochul-says-crime-is-decreasing-across-new-york-state/" target="_blank">Crime is actually going down</a>" doesn't seem to jive with "<a href="https://abc7ny.com/national-guard-police-nypd-bag-checks/14503194/#:~:text=NEW%20YORK%20CITY%20(WABC)%20%2D%2D,five%2Dpoint%20plan%20this%20week." target="_blank">We need to put the National Guardsmen in the subways to help with security</a>"</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="ThatRobGuy, post: 77611027, member: 123415"] There's some interesting facets to this one...and the claims of "the crime rate is going down" are a tad misleading. When you frame it into the time window of a slight drop off after a spike, that's a bit of "creative statistical work" to say the least. If over a 3 year period If Dave increased his daily beer intake from 8 to 10 over a period of 2 years, and then in the final six months, scaled it back down to 8. It'd be, albeit statistically true, but a little misleading to say "Dave's drinking has actually gone down 20% in the past 6 months" as a means of implying "people who are concerned about Dave's drinking are just overreacting" It's also fair to point out that the FBI crime reports (that indicate a drop in crime) coincide with them switching to using the solitary data source called the NIBRS...a source for which nearly a third of the nation's law enforcement entities aren't reporting data to. [URL unfurl="true"]https://www.themarshallproject.org/2022/08/15/see-if-police-in-your-state-reported-crime-data-to-the-fbi[/URL] as opposed to before, where they used the NIBRS in conjunction with the NCVS to get a bigger picture. [ATTACH type="full" alt="1711120336677.png"]344467[/ATTACH] So it stands to reason that it would show an overall decrease if they keep the source that shows the numbers going down (and that have heavily varying rates of participation), and put a [URL='https://bjs.ojp.gov/programs/ncvs/instrument-redesign']3 year pause[/URL] on the one that showed certain crimes going up. Perhaps the reason people perceive crime going up is because of a combination of both personal experiences and observations, plus getting some mixed messages. "[URL='https://www.wbng.com/2024/03/04/gov-hochul-says-crime-is-decreasing-across-new-york-state/']Crime is actually going down[/URL]" doesn't seem to jive with "[URL='https://abc7ny.com/national-guard-police-nypd-bag-checks/14503194/#:~:text=NEW%20YORK%20CITY%20(WABC)%20%2D%2D,five%2Dpoint%20plan%20this%20week.']We need to put the National Guardsmen in the subways to help with security[/URL]" [/QUOTE]
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The U.S. crime rate is still dropping, FBI data shows. Q4 2023 had 13% drop in murder, 6% drop in violent crime
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